Green Book December 2009
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Featured Articles
A Thinning Of The Ranks
Market breadth has weakened considerably, which has historically been a big negative for stocks. However, the lead time between peaks in market breadth and eventual bull market peaks are long and variable.
Adding Consumer Electronics
With new technology and products rolling out, electronic gadgets may be able to capture a growing share of the rebound in total consumer discretionary spending.
Commodity Diffusion Index Now Signaling Rising Inflation
Commodity Diffusion Index hit 75%, an indication of rising inflation pressures. Moves above 70% in this inflation gauge have served as a pretty good sell signal for stocks.
Good News Is Here… Now What?
Climbing the bull market stairs. Our initial upside price target for the S&P 500 is 1300 to 1350. This is based on normalized P/E ratios moving to prior bull market average peak levels, as well as on past market peaks.
How Investors Are Rewarding Management Decisions: A Global Perspective
There are four key decisions a company’s management has to make: Dividend Policy, External Financing, Capital Expenditure (Capex), and Research & Development (R&D). We studied how the market rewards each of these management decisions.
Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months
This transition from deflation to mild inflation will be a “numbers game” as late 2009 readings are compared against late 2008’s strong deflationary readings, driving the twelve month rate up.
Revisiting An Analogue For Today’s Market
Current market is closely aligned with the 1973-1974 post bear market recovery. Expect to see series of higher lows before market ultimately makes new high.
Symptoms of a Maturing Bull Market—Assessing Potential Remaining Upside
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric and Doug put the current market in historical context. They use a variety of factors to assess the potential for further upside.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Good News Is Here… Now What?
- A Thinning Of The Ranks
- Revisiting An Analogue For Today’s Market
- How Investors Are Rewarding Management Decisions: A Global Perspective
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
A Thinning Of The Ranks
Market breadth has weakened considerably, which has historically been a big negative for stocks. However, the lead time between peaks in market breadth and eventual bull market peaks are long and variable.
Adding Consumer Electronics
With new technology and products rolling out, electronic gadgets may be able to capture a growing share of the rebound in total consumer discretionary spending.
Commodity Diffusion Index Now Signaling Rising Inflation
Commodity Diffusion Index hit 75%, an indication of rising inflation pressures. Moves above 70% in this inflation gauge have served as a pretty good sell signal for stocks.
Good News Is Here… Now What?
Climbing the bull market stairs. Our initial upside price target for the S&P 500 is 1300 to 1350. This is based on normalized P/E ratios moving to prior bull market average peak levels, as well as on past market peaks.
How Investors Are Rewarding Management Decisions: A Global Perspective
There are four key decisions a company’s management has to make: Dividend Policy, External Financing, Capital Expenditure (Capex), and Research & Development (R&D). We studied how the market rewards each of these management decisions.
Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months
This transition from deflation to mild inflation will be a “numbers game” as late 2009 readings are compared against late 2008’s strong deflationary readings, driving the twelve month rate up.
Revisiting An Analogue For Today’s Market
Current market is closely aligned with the 1973-1974 post bear market recovery. Expect to see series of higher lows before market ultimately makes new high.
Symptoms of a Maturing Bull Market—Assessing Potential Remaining Upside
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric and Doug put the current market in historical context. They use a variety of factors to assess the potential for further upside.
Stock Market
- Good News Is Here… Now What?
- A Thinning Of The Ranks
- Revisiting An Analogue For Today’s Market
- How Investors Are Rewarding Management Decisions: A Global Perspective