Green Book November 2008
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Featured Articles
As The Smoke Clears
Based on economic recessions, the sweet spot for stock accumulation seems to be upon us. Valuations also very compelling.
Normalized Earnings…..A Primer
Normalized P/E ratios show stock market to be cheap, but what are “normalized earnings”? We present our methodology and rationale is this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. While U.S. stocks are cheap, foreign stock markets look even cheaper.
October Capitulation
There was $84 billion coming out of U.S. stock and bond funds in October, the highest net redemptions ever. Second highest month of outflow came in September 2008 (just a month earlier). To us, this looks like a case of capitulation by the public.
October Panics: Plenty Of Facts, But No Explanations
Mark Twain observed more than a century ago that October represented a “peculiarly dangerous” month to speculate in stocks—with the other dangerous times including the remaining 11 months on the calendar.
Outlook: Weak Economy, Inflation Decelerating
Revised Q4 real GDP confirms what we’ve been saying for quite some time...the U.S. economy began contracting in Q4 2007.
Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In November
It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year...
Sector Ups and Downs During Bear Markets And Recoveries
Info Tech has demonstrated an ability to lead coming out of bear markets, but still not seeing overall GS Score strength in the sector.
Select Industries Groups: Buying Systems Software And Small / Micro Biotech
New Select Industries Portfolio equity group positions being established in Systems Software and Small/Micro Cap Biotech.
Small Cap Stocks: An Extension In Leadership?
Small Cap leadership trend maybe re-emerging. Doug Ramsey examines Small Cap performance coming out of bear markets. Historically, they have been able to do well as higher beta plays.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- As The Smoke Clears
- Normalized Earnings…..A Primer
- October Capitulation
- Sector Ups and Downs During Bear Markets And Recoveries
- October Panics: Plenty Of Facts, But No Explanations
- Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In November
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
As The Smoke Clears
Based on economic recessions, the sweet spot for stock accumulation seems to be upon us. Valuations also very compelling.
Normalized Earnings…..A Primer
Normalized P/E ratios show stock market to be cheap, but what are “normalized earnings”? We present our methodology and rationale is this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. While U.S. stocks are cheap, foreign stock markets look even cheaper.
October Capitulation
There was $84 billion coming out of U.S. stock and bond funds in October, the highest net redemptions ever. Second highest month of outflow came in September 2008 (just a month earlier). To us, this looks like a case of capitulation by the public.
October Panics: Plenty Of Facts, But No Explanations
Mark Twain observed more than a century ago that October represented a “peculiarly dangerous” month to speculate in stocks—with the other dangerous times including the remaining 11 months on the calendar.
Outlook: Weak Economy, Inflation Decelerating
Revised Q4 real GDP confirms what we’ve been saying for quite some time...the U.S. economy began contracting in Q4 2007.
Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In November
It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year...
Sector Ups and Downs During Bear Markets And Recoveries
Info Tech has demonstrated an ability to lead coming out of bear markets, but still not seeing overall GS Score strength in the sector.
Select Industries Groups: Buying Systems Software And Small / Micro Biotech
New Select Industries Portfolio equity group positions being established in Systems Software and Small/Micro Cap Biotech.
Small Cap Stocks: An Extension In Leadership?
Small Cap leadership trend maybe re-emerging. Doug Ramsey examines Small Cap performance coming out of bear markets. Historically, they have been able to do well as higher beta plays.
Stock Market
- As The Smoke Clears
- Normalized Earnings…..A Primer
- October Capitulation
- Sector Ups and Downs During Bear Markets And Recoveries
- October Panics: Plenty Of Facts, But No Explanations
- Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In November