Green Book June 2008
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Featured Articles
Buying Oil & Gas Refiners
Initiating a new portfolio group holding in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group.
Buying REITs In Core And Asset Allocation Portfolios
Returning to REITs as an alternative to fixed income. Adding new 4% holding in both the Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios, with the focus exclusively on Residential and Health Care REITs. Weighted average yield of the new holding is about 5.7%.
Changes In The Capital Gains Tax Rate Vs. Stock Market Performance
Prospects for increase to capital gains tax caused us to examine the historical impact such changes have on stock market performance, 1917 to date. The record is not very encouraging.
Financials Dragging Down Earnings Even On A 3000 Company Median Basis
With or without Financials, earnings momentum has been gradually deteriorating over the past two years as sales growth slowed and margins have been pressured.
Industrial Metals Fall To "Neutral" After Six Year Run
Deactivating Industrial Metals after holding period of almost six years and a 400%+ gain.
Inflation Falls During/After Recessions, But Maybe Not This Time
There is a strong linkage between higher Food and Energy costs and “Core” CPI, as these higher prices filter directly to the so-called “Core” CPI categories. If Food and Energy prices remain strong we could see a reacceleration in CPI inflation this fall.
Major Trend Goes Positive....No Need To "Sell In May"
The statistical tendencies of seasonal patterns just haven’t proved persistent (or logical) enough for us to build them into our Major Trend Index. Can it be a bear market if the major indices do not decline more than 20%? Putting a nail in the coffin of the decoupling theorists.
May Market Action
The stock market continued to move higher in May, with small and mid cap stocks outperforming the majority of large cap indices.
Stock Market Cheap! ...According To NIPA Profits
Based on NIPA Corporate Profits, the S&P 500 is now relatively cheap based on the prior 1956 to date history.
The New Nifty Fifty—Time To Become A Believer Again?
These once elite companies have continued to turn in good earnings growth. The problem had been that the prices had moved far too high. After a few years of declining prices, the valuations are once again looking very compelling.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Goes Positive....No Need To "Sell In May"
- May Market Action
- Stock Market Cheap! ...According To NIPA Profits
- Changes In The Capital Gains Tax Rate Vs. Stock Market Performance
- Financials Dragging Down Earnings Even On A 3000 Company Median Basis
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
- Industrial Metals Fall To "Neutral" After Six Year Run
- Buying Oil & Gas Refiners
- Buying REITs In Core And Asset Allocation Portfolios
Inflation Watch
Buying Oil & Gas Refiners
Initiating a new portfolio group holding in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group.
Buying REITs In Core And Asset Allocation Portfolios
Returning to REITs as an alternative to fixed income. Adding new 4% holding in both the Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios, with the focus exclusively on Residential and Health Care REITs. Weighted average yield of the new holding is about 5.7%.
Changes In The Capital Gains Tax Rate Vs. Stock Market Performance
Prospects for increase to capital gains tax caused us to examine the historical impact such changes have on stock market performance, 1917 to date. The record is not very encouraging.
Financials Dragging Down Earnings Even On A 3000 Company Median Basis
With or without Financials, earnings momentum has been gradually deteriorating over the past two years as sales growth slowed and margins have been pressured.
Industrial Metals Fall To "Neutral" After Six Year Run
Deactivating Industrial Metals after holding period of almost six years and a 400%+ gain.
Inflation Falls During/After Recessions, But Maybe Not This Time
There is a strong linkage between higher Food and Energy costs and “Core” CPI, as these higher prices filter directly to the so-called “Core” CPI categories. If Food and Energy prices remain strong we could see a reacceleration in CPI inflation this fall.
Major Trend Goes Positive....No Need To "Sell In May"
The statistical tendencies of seasonal patterns just haven’t proved persistent (or logical) enough for us to build them into our Major Trend Index. Can it be a bear market if the major indices do not decline more than 20%? Putting a nail in the coffin of the decoupling theorists.
May Market Action
The stock market continued to move higher in May, with small and mid cap stocks outperforming the majority of large cap indices.
Stock Market Cheap! ...According To NIPA Profits
Based on NIPA Corporate Profits, the S&P 500 is now relatively cheap based on the prior 1956 to date history.
The New Nifty Fifty—Time To Become A Believer Again?
These once elite companies have continued to turn in good earnings growth. The problem had been that the prices had moved far too high. After a few years of declining prices, the valuations are once again looking very compelling.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Goes Positive....No Need To "Sell In May"
- May Market Action
- Stock Market Cheap! ...According To NIPA Profits
- Changes In The Capital Gains Tax Rate Vs. Stock Market Performance
- Financials Dragging Down Earnings Even On A 3000 Company Median Basis
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
- Industrial Metals Fall To "Neutral" After Six Year Run
- Buying Oil & Gas Refiners
- Buying REITs In Core And Asset Allocation Portfolios