Green Book July 2008
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Featured Articles
An Economic Indicator That Really Provides Guidance
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric Bjorgen analyzes the Coincident Economic Indicators, which the NBER uses to date the beginning and ending points of recessions. Three of the four measures are indicating a recession has already begun.
Busting Up Bubble Talk
More bubble talk. Crude oil prices are following the same pattern as the tech bubble in the late 1990s. However, Energy stocks have not become nearly as extended as Tech stocks were in the late 1990s. Also, Energy stocks have shown far superior earnings growth compared to Tech.
Buying Mega-Cap Technology Stocks
Doug Ramsey presents the rationale for our move into the Tech…Big Ten stock group.
CPI Inflation Expected To Reaccelerate
As U.S. and global economies slow, inflation should be cooling off. However rising food and energy prices are keeping CPI and PPI measures uncomfortably high.
Financials: Initial Target Satisfied....Now What?
In our equity portfolios we have avoided much of the Financial sector’s collapse, but unfortunately suffered a hit on the Regional Bank stocks over the past two months. The group faded to Neutral in our GS Scores this month and has been deactivated.
Major Trend Fades To Neutral During June Massacre
Well, now it’s officially a bear market. But readers should realize that since bear markets typically decline 28%, the bear is likely at least two-thirds over.
Small Caps Succumbing
Why have Small Caps been outperforming Large Caps since January?
Stock Market In High Inflation Environments
High Inflation typically is NOT a good environment for stocks, but we don’t believe the CPI will move to the “high” inflation environment.
The Major Trend Index...Gone Global
Comparing and contrasting our traditional Major Trend Index and the Global Major Trend Index. Both are now Neutral, but the Global version is showing better valuations and worse technical scores.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Fades To Neutral During June Massacre
- The Major Trend Index...Gone Global
- Small Caps Succumbing
- Stock Market In High Inflation Environments
- Busting Up Bubble Talk
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
An Economic Indicator That Really Provides Guidance
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric Bjorgen analyzes the Coincident Economic Indicators, which the NBER uses to date the beginning and ending points of recessions. Three of the four measures are indicating a recession has already begun.
Busting Up Bubble Talk
More bubble talk. Crude oil prices are following the same pattern as the tech bubble in the late 1990s. However, Energy stocks have not become nearly as extended as Tech stocks were in the late 1990s. Also, Energy stocks have shown far superior earnings growth compared to Tech.
Buying Mega-Cap Technology Stocks
Doug Ramsey presents the rationale for our move into the Tech…Big Ten stock group.
CPI Inflation Expected To Reaccelerate
As U.S. and global economies slow, inflation should be cooling off. However rising food and energy prices are keeping CPI and PPI measures uncomfortably high.
Financials: Initial Target Satisfied....Now What?
In our equity portfolios we have avoided much of the Financial sector’s collapse, but unfortunately suffered a hit on the Regional Bank stocks over the past two months. The group faded to Neutral in our GS Scores this month and has been deactivated.
Major Trend Fades To Neutral During June Massacre
Well, now it’s officially a bear market. But readers should realize that since bear markets typically decline 28%, the bear is likely at least two-thirds over.
Small Caps Succumbing
Why have Small Caps been outperforming Large Caps since January?
Stock Market In High Inflation Environments
High Inflation typically is NOT a good environment for stocks, but we don’t believe the CPI will move to the “high” inflation environment.
The Major Trend Index...Gone Global
Comparing and contrasting our traditional Major Trend Index and the Global Major Trend Index. Both are now Neutral, but the Global version is showing better valuations and worse technical scores.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Fades To Neutral During June Massacre
- The Major Trend Index...Gone Global
- Small Caps Succumbing
- Stock Market In High Inflation Environments
- Busting Up Bubble Talk