Green Book January 2008
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Featured Articles
2008: Less Than Great
Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
2007’s “Good, Bad, and Ugly” of The Leuthold Group research; Leuthold Group Selection (GS) Scores performance review; Weighted index vs. Un-Weighted index performance; and 2007’s “Dreams & Nightmares” portfolios.
CPI/PPI Inflation Expected To Peak With January 2008 Readings
We expect the CPI and PPI to peak in January 2008 and then decelerate some as the economy begins to slow down.
Cyclicality Adjustment Made To Leuthol dGS Scores In December
Explanation of Cyclicals Adjustments made to GS Score methodology.
December Market Action
December’s bi-polar price swings had screens flashing brilliant with traditional holiday colors of red and green.
Dow Double Trouble
Our VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum algorithm—alternatively known as the Coppock Curve or “Madness of Crowds”—has just rolled over after forming a rare “double top” formation. Why has the rare VLT Double Top typically proven lethal for the stock market?
Fed’s Favorite Inflation Measure Now Well Above Fed’s Preferred Range
The notion of a core rate of inflation (excluding Food and Energy) seems to be fading away—finally!
Financials: How Low Could They Go?
Expect more downside for Financials, based on the sector’s percentage of S&P 500 market cap, as well as percentage of earnings. An S&P Financial sector weight of 15% may mark the bottom.
Four Trends Worth Knowing About On The Supply/Demand Front
Four trends worth noting and their implications for 2008.
New Group Position — Adding Biotechnology
Adding Biotechnology to Select Industries equity portfolio.
Playing The Bounce Update: Activated In Managed Accounts As 6% Holding
In mid-December, readers were notified via an Interim Memo of our decision to “Play The Bounce” in our managed accounts.
Small Caps' Stumble Is A Global Affair
Small caps have trailed the S&P 500 performance by 12-15% since peaking out on a relative basis in the spring of 2006. International small caps have broken down even more decisively on a relative basis.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- 2008: Less Than Great
- December Market Action
- Four Trends Worth Knowing About On The Supply/Demand Front
- Financials: How Low Could They Go?
- Cyclicality Adjustment Made To Leuthol dGS Scores In December
- Small Caps' Stumble Is A Global Affair
- Dow Double Trouble
- Playing The Bounce Update: Activated In Managed Accounts As 6% Holding
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
2008: Less Than Great
Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
2007’s “Good, Bad, and Ugly” of The Leuthold Group research; Leuthold Group Selection (GS) Scores performance review; Weighted index vs. Un-Weighted index performance; and 2007’s “Dreams & Nightmares” portfolios.
CPI/PPI Inflation Expected To Peak With January 2008 Readings
We expect the CPI and PPI to peak in January 2008 and then decelerate some as the economy begins to slow down.
Cyclicality Adjustment Made To Leuthol dGS Scores In December
Explanation of Cyclicals Adjustments made to GS Score methodology.
December Market Action
December’s bi-polar price swings had screens flashing brilliant with traditional holiday colors of red and green.
Dow Double Trouble
Our VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum algorithm—alternatively known as the Coppock Curve or “Madness of Crowds”—has just rolled over after forming a rare “double top” formation. Why has the rare VLT Double Top typically proven lethal for the stock market?
Fed’s Favorite Inflation Measure Now Well Above Fed’s Preferred Range
The notion of a core rate of inflation (excluding Food and Energy) seems to be fading away—finally!
Financials: How Low Could They Go?
Expect more downside for Financials, based on the sector’s percentage of S&P 500 market cap, as well as percentage of earnings. An S&P Financial sector weight of 15% may mark the bottom.
Four Trends Worth Knowing About On The Supply/Demand Front
Four trends worth noting and their implications for 2008.
New Group Position — Adding Biotechnology
Adding Biotechnology to Select Industries equity portfolio.
Playing The Bounce Update: Activated In Managed Accounts As 6% Holding
In mid-December, readers were notified via an Interim Memo of our decision to “Play The Bounce” in our managed accounts.
Small Caps' Stumble Is A Global Affair
Small caps have trailed the S&P 500 performance by 12-15% since peaking out on a relative basis in the spring of 2006. International small caps have broken down even more decisively on a relative basis.
Stock Market
- 2008: Less Than Great
- December Market Action
- Four Trends Worth Knowing About On The Supply/Demand Front
- Financials: How Low Could They Go?
- Cyclicality Adjustment Made To Leuthol dGS Scores In December
- Small Caps' Stumble Is A Global Affair
- Dow Double Trouble
- Playing The Bounce Update: Activated In Managed Accounts As 6% Holding