Green Book December 2008
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Featured Articles
A Decade Lost....Why Sentiment Is Now So Bad And Opportunity Now So Good
The S&P 500 has produced an annual compound return of -0.9% per year for the last ten years (November 1998 through November 2008). This does, however, set the stage for very strong performance going forward.
Bear Market Epitaph?
While we can’t be certain that the final figures for the bear market have been booked, it’s worth putting the last 14 months of action into perspective.
Bull Markets: The Best Comes First
New bull markets are front end loaded, with the strongest performance usually coming within the first few months. Study also shows that Small Cap Growth stocks tend to outperform their Large Cap and Value counterparts.
Deflation….What If?
Mild deflation is nothing to fear: An environment of 0% to 2.4% deflation has proven to be one of the more conducive environments for stocks.
Education Services...New Position In Select Industries Portfolio
Establishing a new Select Industries Equity Portfolio holding in Education Services. The group was upgraded to Attractive this month, after seeing upgrades in four of seven categories.
November Market Action
Drama, if not direction, have become one of the stock market’s few certainties.
Outlook: Weak Economy, Inflation Decelerating
The consumer is in the worst shape that we can remember. September job loss was the highest in five years.
Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In December
It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Not very many investors or portfolio managers have capital gains to offset.
Technical Comment: Momentum “Divergences” Are Now In Place
The November leg down in stocks was brutal. However, from a technical perspective, the decline was accompanied by the kind of “positive divergences” that typically appear at major lows.
Think There's No Fuel For A Rally??.....Better Think Again
Using the ratio of MZM relative to total stock market capitalization as a gauge of market liquidity, shows there is a lot of fuel that can be put to work to drive a stock market rally.
Update On Non-Farm Payrolls....Buy Signal Likely With November Data
Non-farm payroll data is poised to register a buy signal for the stock market in early December. Using the year over year rate of change has historically been very effective in identifying recession-related market bottoms.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- November Market Action
- Bear Market Epitaph?
- Bull Markets: The Best Comes First
- A Decade Lost....Why Sentiment Is Now So Bad And Opportunity Now So Good
- Update On Non-Farm Payrolls....Buy Signal Likely With November Data
- Think There's No Fuel For A Rally??.....Better Think Again
- Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In December
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
A Decade Lost....Why Sentiment Is Now So Bad And Opportunity Now So Good
The S&P 500 has produced an annual compound return of -0.9% per year for the last ten years (November 1998 through November 2008). This does, however, set the stage for very strong performance going forward.
Bear Market Epitaph?
While we can’t be certain that the final figures for the bear market have been booked, it’s worth putting the last 14 months of action into perspective.
Bull Markets: The Best Comes First
New bull markets are front end loaded, with the strongest performance usually coming within the first few months. Study also shows that Small Cap Growth stocks tend to outperform their Large Cap and Value counterparts.
Deflation….What If?
Mild deflation is nothing to fear: An environment of 0% to 2.4% deflation has proven to be one of the more conducive environments for stocks.
Education Services...New Position In Select Industries Portfolio
Establishing a new Select Industries Equity Portfolio holding in Education Services. The group was upgraded to Attractive this month, after seeing upgrades in four of seven categories.
November Market Action
Drama, if not direction, have become one of the stock market’s few certainties.
Outlook: Weak Economy, Inflation Decelerating
The consumer is in the worst shape that we can remember. September job loss was the highest in five years.
Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In December
It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Not very many investors or portfolio managers have capital gains to offset.
Technical Comment: Momentum “Divergences” Are Now In Place
The November leg down in stocks was brutal. However, from a technical perspective, the decline was accompanied by the kind of “positive divergences” that typically appear at major lows.
Think There's No Fuel For A Rally??.....Better Think Again
Using the ratio of MZM relative to total stock market capitalization as a gauge of market liquidity, shows there is a lot of fuel that can be put to work to drive a stock market rally.
Update On Non-Farm Payrolls....Buy Signal Likely With November Data
Non-farm payroll data is poised to register a buy signal for the stock market in early December. Using the year over year rate of change has historically been very effective in identifying recession-related market bottoms.
Stock Market
- November Market Action
- Bear Market Epitaph?
- Bull Markets: The Best Comes First
- A Decade Lost....Why Sentiment Is Now So Bad And Opportunity Now So Good
- Update On Non-Farm Payrolls....Buy Signal Likely With November Data
- Think There's No Fuel For A Rally??.....Better Think Again
- Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In December