Green Book October 2007
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter
Leuthold Advisors Newsletter subscriptions include a no-obligation 14-day trial. Cancel at any time before the 14 days are over and you will not be billed.
Subscribe nowLogin
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Featured Articles
Inflation Outlook: Remains Worrisome
September CPI and PPI reports are likely to be much less favorable (more inflationary).
CPI “Housing” Cooling Off
One development that is currently dampening rent hikes is the increasing conversion of condo units to rental units, increasing the overall supply of rentals.
Consumer Watch– Economic Data Weakening, Consumer Stocks Already Discounting A Slowdown
Our view that the consumer is due for a pullback has been bolstered in recent months, as Consumer Discretionary groups have continued to slip in our Group Selection (GS) Score rankings.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Selling Accelerates In Q3
Despite a respectable S&P 500 gain of 18% over this eighteen month period, it appears Main Street investors want little to do with the domestic stock market.
New Select Industries Group Position– Auto Parts & Equipment
Auto Parts & Equipment has rated Attractive in seven of ten months this year, including the last two months.
New Select Industries Group Position– Life & Health Insurance
Life & Health Insurance has rated Attractive for five months now, steadily climbing up the rankings during that time.
Outside The BLS, Inflation Is Alive And Well
This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on the inflation pressures into today’s marketplace.
Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
It’s that time of year when we roll out the annual “Playing The Bounce” strategy.
Rising High Yield Spreads....Implications For An Agnostic Stock Market
Link between Junk bonds and stock market seems to be indicating that stock investors are ignoring factors pushing Junk bond yields higher.
Sector Level Earnings Outlook – More Pain To Come In Analyst Revisions?
NIPA earnings (National Income and Product Accounts) were revised downward significantly. Also believe that Small Cap earnings estimates are overly optimistic.
September Market Action
Although the general tone of the markets improved in September, we continue to see signs that recent strength may not have a lot of foundation or staying power.
View From The North Country
Not only is October ‘National Pork Month’ in the U.S., it is the “Year of the Pig” in China. This brings to mind the old stock market homily “A Bull can make money and a Bear can make money, but Pigs are losers.”
What Would It Take To Push The Major Trend Index To Positive?
Discussion of what it would take to push the ratio to positive ground, looking at the individual indicators that have heavier weights, which could potentially improve rather quickly under certain conditions.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- September Market Action
- What Would It Take To Push The Major Trend Index To Positive?
- Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
- Sector Level Earnings Outlook – More Pain To Come In Analyst Revisions?
- Consumer Watch– Economic Data Weakening, Consumer Stocks Already Discounting A Slowdown
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Selling Accelerates In Q3
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Position– Life & Health Insurance
- New Select Industries Group Position– Auto Parts & Equipment
Inflation Watch
Inflation Outlook: Remains Worrisome
September CPI and PPI reports are likely to be much less favorable (more inflationary).
CPI “Housing” Cooling Off
One development that is currently dampening rent hikes is the increasing conversion of condo units to rental units, increasing the overall supply of rentals.
Consumer Watch– Economic Data Weakening, Consumer Stocks Already Discounting A Slowdown
Our view that the consumer is due for a pullback has been bolstered in recent months, as Consumer Discretionary groups have continued to slip in our Group Selection (GS) Score rankings.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Selling Accelerates In Q3
Despite a respectable S&P 500 gain of 18% over this eighteen month period, it appears Main Street investors want little to do with the domestic stock market.
New Select Industries Group Position– Auto Parts & Equipment
Auto Parts & Equipment has rated Attractive in seven of ten months this year, including the last two months.
New Select Industries Group Position– Life & Health Insurance
Life & Health Insurance has rated Attractive for five months now, steadily climbing up the rankings during that time.
Outside The BLS, Inflation Is Alive And Well
This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on the inflation pressures into today’s marketplace.
Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
It’s that time of year when we roll out the annual “Playing The Bounce” strategy.
Rising High Yield Spreads....Implications For An Agnostic Stock Market
Link between Junk bonds and stock market seems to be indicating that stock investors are ignoring factors pushing Junk bond yields higher.
Sector Level Earnings Outlook – More Pain To Come In Analyst Revisions?
NIPA earnings (National Income and Product Accounts) were revised downward significantly. Also believe that Small Cap earnings estimates are overly optimistic.
September Market Action
Although the general tone of the markets improved in September, we continue to see signs that recent strength may not have a lot of foundation or staying power.
View From The North Country
Not only is October ‘National Pork Month’ in the U.S., it is the “Year of the Pig” in China. This brings to mind the old stock market homily “A Bull can make money and a Bear can make money, but Pigs are losers.”
What Would It Take To Push The Major Trend Index To Positive?
Discussion of what it would take to push the ratio to positive ground, looking at the individual indicators that have heavier weights, which could potentially improve rather quickly under certain conditions.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- September Market Action
- What Would It Take To Push The Major Trend Index To Positive?
- Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
- Sector Level Earnings Outlook – More Pain To Come In Analyst Revisions?
- Consumer Watch– Economic Data Weakening, Consumer Stocks Already Discounting A Slowdown
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Selling Accelerates In Q3
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Position– Life & Health Insurance
- New Select Industries Group Position– Auto Parts & Equipment