Green Book November 2007
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Featured Articles
2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008
Expect economy to slow the remainder of 2007 as a result of slower consumer and business spending, as well as housing and auto woes. A 2008 recession is now a stronger possibility.
Bad Breadth Is A Global Concern
Bad breadth is a global concern. It may come as a surprise that foreign breadth is actually weaker than U.S. readings.
Cautious On Small Caps
Small Cap outlook continues to deteriorate. Despite recent underperformance, valuation premium is not shrinking.
Homebuilders.....Watching The “Window”
Not all gloom and doom this month...Homebuilders approaching window where past busted bubbles have bounced.
More Upside In Energy Stocks? Comparisons To 1974-1980 Bull Market Say Yes!
Relative valuations seem to support a continuation of energy stock strength.
Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Funds See Net Outflow Of $45 Billion Over Last Six Months
U.S. focus equity mutual funds outflow now within striking distance of the all-time record outflow of $25 billion for all of 2002.
New Select Industries Group Position– Green Wave
Select Industries adds "Green Wave"...a thematic group focused on environmentally friendly services, products, and technologies.
New Select Industries Group Position– Hypermarkets & Supercenters
Hypermarkets & Supercenters moved into the top 15 of the Group Selection (GS) Scores this month.
October Market Action
October marked new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials, while mid and small cap indexes like the Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P Mid Cap indexes, tested, but failed to take out their July-2007 highs.
Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
We have had some concerns about playing the bounce this year. The stock market has absorbed (ignored) an abundance of bad news only to move higher, placing its faith in further Fed rate cuts.
Rate Cuts Fanning The Commodity Flames
Fed rate cuts not reaching intended targets. Commodity groups caught fire after the initial August 17th cut and continue to be strong. Meanwhile financial institutions and consumer related groups continue to languish.
Still On Target For +4% CPI At Year End
We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year, including CPI, Core CPI, CPU, PPI and GDP deflator.
The Evaporation Of Deal Flow
Golden Age Ends For Cash Buyouts, But Does A Silver Age Loom?
The Growing Import Of U.S. Companies' Foreign Income
Mega Cap stocks (largest 50) derived 47% of income from foreign sources in 2006, up from 37% in 2000. Small/Micro cap stocks received just 15%-20% of income from foreign sources in 2006.
Update On Leuthold's Global Groups
Leuthold’s equity portfolios—and especially our global portfolio—have capitalized on the past few months’ surge in commodities and other basic industries.
View From The North Country
Steve's commentary on the stock market's Wall of Worry, the oil patch and mining company squeeze, the abusurdity of corn to ethanol and the world's most valuable companies.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- October Market Action
- Cautious On Small Caps
- More Upside In Energy Stocks? Comparisons To 1974-1980 Bull Market Say Yes!
- Rate Cuts Fanning The Commodity Flames
- The Growing Import Of U.S. Companies' Foreign Income
- Bad Breadth Is A Global Concern
- Update On Leuthold's Global Groups
- Homebuilders.....Watching The “Window”
- Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
- Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Funds See Net Outflow Of $45 Billion Over Last Six Months
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Position– Green Wave
- New Select Industries Group Position– Hypermarkets & Supercenters
Inflation Watch
2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008
Expect economy to slow the remainder of 2007 as a result of slower consumer and business spending, as well as housing and auto woes. A 2008 recession is now a stronger possibility.
Bad Breadth Is A Global Concern
Bad breadth is a global concern. It may come as a surprise that foreign breadth is actually weaker than U.S. readings.
Cautious On Small Caps
Small Cap outlook continues to deteriorate. Despite recent underperformance, valuation premium is not shrinking.
Homebuilders.....Watching The “Window”
Not all gloom and doom this month...Homebuilders approaching window where past busted bubbles have bounced.
More Upside In Energy Stocks? Comparisons To 1974-1980 Bull Market Say Yes!
Relative valuations seem to support a continuation of energy stock strength.
Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Funds See Net Outflow Of $45 Billion Over Last Six Months
U.S. focus equity mutual funds outflow now within striking distance of the all-time record outflow of $25 billion for all of 2002.
New Select Industries Group Position– Green Wave
Select Industries adds "Green Wave"...a thematic group focused on environmentally friendly services, products, and technologies.
New Select Industries Group Position– Hypermarkets & Supercenters
Hypermarkets & Supercenters moved into the top 15 of the Group Selection (GS) Scores this month.
October Market Action
October marked new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials, while mid and small cap indexes like the Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P Mid Cap indexes, tested, but failed to take out their July-2007 highs.
Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
We have had some concerns about playing the bounce this year. The stock market has absorbed (ignored) an abundance of bad news only to move higher, placing its faith in further Fed rate cuts.
Rate Cuts Fanning The Commodity Flames
Fed rate cuts not reaching intended targets. Commodity groups caught fire after the initial August 17th cut and continue to be strong. Meanwhile financial institutions and consumer related groups continue to languish.
Still On Target For +4% CPI At Year End
We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year, including CPI, Core CPI, CPU, PPI and GDP deflator.
The Evaporation Of Deal Flow
Golden Age Ends For Cash Buyouts, But Does A Silver Age Loom?
The Growing Import Of U.S. Companies' Foreign Income
Mega Cap stocks (largest 50) derived 47% of income from foreign sources in 2006, up from 37% in 2000. Small/Micro cap stocks received just 15%-20% of income from foreign sources in 2006.
Update On Leuthold's Global Groups
Leuthold’s equity portfolios—and especially our global portfolio—have capitalized on the past few months’ surge in commodities and other basic industries.
View From The North Country
Steve's commentary on the stock market's Wall of Worry, the oil patch and mining company squeeze, the abusurdity of corn to ethanol and the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- October Market Action
- Cautious On Small Caps
- More Upside In Energy Stocks? Comparisons To 1974-1980 Bull Market Say Yes!
- Rate Cuts Fanning The Commodity Flames
- The Growing Import Of U.S. Companies' Foreign Income
- Bad Breadth Is A Global Concern
- Update On Leuthold's Global Groups
- Homebuilders.....Watching The “Window”
- Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
- Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Funds See Net Outflow Of $45 Billion Over Last Six Months
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Position– Green Wave
- New Select Industries Group Position– Hypermarkets & Supercenters