Green Book December 2007
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Featured Articles
2007 Outlook
CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008
A Discount Shopping Guide To Banks And Homebuilders
With a heavily promotional holiday shopping season underway, we feel compelled to join the fray by looking at the big markdowns in U.S. homebuilding and bank stocks.
Bulls May Have Christmas...
Bulls may indeed have Christmas, but fundamentals for bearish case in 2008 are extensive.
Financials Sector – Comparison To S&L Crisis Paints A Bleak Picture Of What Could Lie Ahead
Performance of today’s Financial sector is somewhat tracking the performance during the S&L crisis. Paints bleak picture of what may lie ahead.
How Low Will The Fed Go? Bond Market May Be Offering Some Clues
In trying to assess how far the Fed may ultimately be forced to cut rates, the price action in short term Treasuries and historical yield relationships may offer some clues.
Investing In The Frontier Markets
Now could be the time to get in before markets fully discount the potential growth and better assess the risk.
Is Mild Stagflation In The Cards?...How To Play It
It is very possible that the early part of 2008 will see a brief period of higher inflation combined with slowing real growth in the U.S. economy.
Long Term Bullish Case: Dollar Versus The Euro
Thanks to weak dollar, foreigners may be buying up Florida vacation homes. The U.S. is now on sale! Making the long term bullish case for a dollar rally against the euro.
Momentum/Breadth/Divergence Category Moves To Negative Ground
With this category now breaking into negative territory, we thought it would be interesting to look back at the other periods when the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category shifted from a positive net reading to negative.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds At Record Level
Funds offering exposure to non-U.S. equity asset classes have been seeing a fair amount of net inflow this year, while U.S. equity funds have been mostly ignored.
November Market Action
The venerable Wall Of Worry finally got to the stock market during November, with the major indexes losing their grip virtually right out of the gates.
Playing The Bounce 2007 Update
May “Play The Bounce” if stocks sell off in December.
Point And Counterpoint: Big Oil
Client disputes Leuthold’s call for big oil to invest in alternative energy business. Read Steve’s in-depth rebuttal.
Still On Target For +4% Or Higher CPI At Year End
We expect broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year.
Time To Revisit "Why We Normalize Earnings"
Earnings are very cyclical by nature, the ebb and flow can cause P/E ratios to move in erratic, less meaningful ways.
VLT Momentum On U.S. Currency...Applications (And Implications) For The Weak Dollar
Quite simply, VLT (which stands for Very Long Term) is a momentum oscillator which works best as a buy signal. Some market technicians have also suggested that VLT Momentum back-tests well as a currency indicator.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Bulls May Have Christmas...
- Long Term Bullish Case: Dollar Versus The Euro
- Investing In The Frontier Markets
- Point And Counterpoint: Big Oil
- November Market Action
- Time To Revisit "Why We Normalize Earnings"
- Playing The Bounce 2007 Update
- Momentum/Breadth/Divergence Category Moves To Negative Ground
- Financials Sector – Comparison To S&L Crisis Paints A Bleak Picture Of What Could Lie Ahead
- How Low Will The Fed Go? Bond Market May Be Offering Some Clues
- Is Mild Stagflation In The Cards?...How To Play It
- VLT Momentum On U.S. Currency...Applications (And Implications) For The Weak Dollar
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds At Record Level
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
2007 Outlook
CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008
A Discount Shopping Guide To Banks And Homebuilders
With a heavily promotional holiday shopping season underway, we feel compelled to join the fray by looking at the big markdowns in U.S. homebuilding and bank stocks.
Bulls May Have Christmas...
Bulls may indeed have Christmas, but fundamentals for bearish case in 2008 are extensive.
Financials Sector – Comparison To S&L Crisis Paints A Bleak Picture Of What Could Lie Ahead
Performance of today’s Financial sector is somewhat tracking the performance during the S&L crisis. Paints bleak picture of what may lie ahead.
How Low Will The Fed Go? Bond Market May Be Offering Some Clues
In trying to assess how far the Fed may ultimately be forced to cut rates, the price action in short term Treasuries and historical yield relationships may offer some clues.
Investing In The Frontier Markets
Now could be the time to get in before markets fully discount the potential growth and better assess the risk.
Is Mild Stagflation In The Cards?...How To Play It
It is very possible that the early part of 2008 will see a brief period of higher inflation combined with slowing real growth in the U.S. economy.
Long Term Bullish Case: Dollar Versus The Euro
Thanks to weak dollar, foreigners may be buying up Florida vacation homes. The U.S. is now on sale! Making the long term bullish case for a dollar rally against the euro.
Momentum/Breadth/Divergence Category Moves To Negative Ground
With this category now breaking into negative territory, we thought it would be interesting to look back at the other periods when the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category shifted from a positive net reading to negative.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds At Record Level
Funds offering exposure to non-U.S. equity asset classes have been seeing a fair amount of net inflow this year, while U.S. equity funds have been mostly ignored.
November Market Action
The venerable Wall Of Worry finally got to the stock market during November, with the major indexes losing their grip virtually right out of the gates.
Playing The Bounce 2007 Update
May “Play The Bounce” if stocks sell off in December.
Point And Counterpoint: Big Oil
Client disputes Leuthold’s call for big oil to invest in alternative energy business. Read Steve’s in-depth rebuttal.
Still On Target For +4% Or Higher CPI At Year End
We expect broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year.
Time To Revisit "Why We Normalize Earnings"
Earnings are very cyclical by nature, the ebb and flow can cause P/E ratios to move in erratic, less meaningful ways.
VLT Momentum On U.S. Currency...Applications (And Implications) For The Weak Dollar
Quite simply, VLT (which stands for Very Long Term) is a momentum oscillator which works best as a buy signal. Some market technicians have also suggested that VLT Momentum back-tests well as a currency indicator.
Stock Market
- Bulls May Have Christmas...
- Long Term Bullish Case: Dollar Versus The Euro
- Investing In The Frontier Markets
- Point And Counterpoint: Big Oil
- November Market Action
- Time To Revisit "Why We Normalize Earnings"
- Playing The Bounce 2007 Update
- Momentum/Breadth/Divergence Category Moves To Negative Ground
- Financials Sector – Comparison To S&L Crisis Paints A Bleak Picture Of What Could Lie Ahead
- How Low Will The Fed Go? Bond Market May Be Offering Some Clues
- Is Mild Stagflation In The Cards?...How To Play It
- VLT Momentum On U.S. Currency...Applications (And Implications) For The Weak Dollar
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds At Record Level