Green Book August 2007
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Featured Articles
2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Second Half, Economy Creeping Along, Recession In 2008?
Bond market targets were increased in July, based on rising global rates, strong global economy and expected inflation acceleration.
A Sudden Case Of Bad Breadth
Deteriorating stock market breadth was one of the factors contributing to the overall decline in the Major Trend Index to Negative status. An examination of the current Advance/Decline Lines shows the fade is continuing, and is particularly prevalent in the small cap indices.
Generic Pharmaceuticals...New Position In Select Industries
At a time when our Group Selection Scores have been deteriorating among the various Pharmaceutical groups tracked, our numbers for the Generic Pharma group have improved to the point where the group is now rated Attractive.
Inflation Outlook: Worrisome
We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year, including: CPI, Core CPI, PPI and GDP deflator.
July Market Action
The Major Trend Index’s bearish reading put us on the right side of the market during the second half of July.
Leuthold Global Groups: Forgetting About Borders
This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on our new global equities investment research product which was derived from our quantitative Group Selection (GS) Score framework for assessing domestic equity industry groups.
Mining Equipment - New Position In Select Industries
This month, we purchased Mining Equipment, a new thematic group that we have been monitoring internally for most of 2007.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Public Support For U.S. Equities Continues To Falter
The YTD numbers further advance the notion that Main Street wants little new exposure to the U.S. stock market.
No "Heads Up" From Short Interest....
The Leuthold Group maintains three short interest models. All three issued timely BUY signals on the market near the summer 2006 lows, but none of these three models provided any hint of the market weakness that recently unfolded in July and August.
Time For Some Defense? - Attractive AND Defensive Groups To Consider
Following the market rout of recent weeks, we imagine there are many clients sharing our nervous view of the stock market. For those clients, especially those managing long-only equity strategies, we thought it may be helpful to highlight some defensive groups that are scoring well in our group work.
View From The North Country
Steve presents his mid year outlook for “Alternative Investments”
Yield Curve Moved Positive In May, But We Are Not Out Of The Water
The yield curve has moved away from inverted status, leading many to conclude the possibility of recession has been avoided. However, a look at past recessions reveals that a reversal of an inversion typically occurs prior to the economic decline– ranging from 6 months to over a year in advance.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- July Market Action
- A Sudden Case Of Bad Breadth
- No "Heads Up" From Short Interest....
- Yield Curve Moved Positive In May, But We Are Not Out Of The Water
- Time For Some Defense? - Attractive AND Defensive Groups To Consider
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Public Support For U.S. Equities Continues To Falter
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Mining Equipment - New Position In Select Industries
- Generic Pharmaceuticals...New Position In Select Industries
Inflation Watch
2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Second Half, Economy Creeping Along, Recession In 2008?
Bond market targets were increased in July, based on rising global rates, strong global economy and expected inflation acceleration.
A Sudden Case Of Bad Breadth
Deteriorating stock market breadth was one of the factors contributing to the overall decline in the Major Trend Index to Negative status. An examination of the current Advance/Decline Lines shows the fade is continuing, and is particularly prevalent in the small cap indices.
Generic Pharmaceuticals...New Position In Select Industries
At a time when our Group Selection Scores have been deteriorating among the various Pharmaceutical groups tracked, our numbers for the Generic Pharma group have improved to the point where the group is now rated Attractive.
Inflation Outlook: Worrisome
We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year, including: CPI, Core CPI, PPI and GDP deflator.
July Market Action
The Major Trend Index’s bearish reading put us on the right side of the market during the second half of July.
Leuthold Global Groups: Forgetting About Borders
This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on our new global equities investment research product which was derived from our quantitative Group Selection (GS) Score framework for assessing domestic equity industry groups.
Mining Equipment - New Position In Select Industries
This month, we purchased Mining Equipment, a new thematic group that we have been monitoring internally for most of 2007.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Public Support For U.S. Equities Continues To Falter
The YTD numbers further advance the notion that Main Street wants little new exposure to the U.S. stock market.
No "Heads Up" From Short Interest....
The Leuthold Group maintains three short interest models. All three issued timely BUY signals on the market near the summer 2006 lows, but none of these three models provided any hint of the market weakness that recently unfolded in July and August.
Time For Some Defense? - Attractive AND Defensive Groups To Consider
Following the market rout of recent weeks, we imagine there are many clients sharing our nervous view of the stock market. For those clients, especially those managing long-only equity strategies, we thought it may be helpful to highlight some defensive groups that are scoring well in our group work.
View From The North Country
Steve presents his mid year outlook for “Alternative Investments”
Yield Curve Moved Positive In May, But We Are Not Out Of The Water
The yield curve has moved away from inverted status, leading many to conclude the possibility of recession has been avoided. However, a look at past recessions reveals that a reversal of an inversion typically occurs prior to the economic decline– ranging from 6 months to over a year in advance.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- July Market Action
- A Sudden Case Of Bad Breadth
- No "Heads Up" From Short Interest....
- Yield Curve Moved Positive In May, But We Are Not Out Of The Water
- Time For Some Defense? - Attractive AND Defensive Groups To Consider
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Public Support For U.S. Equities Continues To Falter
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Mining Equipment - New Position In Select Industries
- Generic Pharmaceuticals...New Position In Select Industries