Green Book November 2006
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter
Leuthold Advisors Newsletter subscriptions include a no-obligation 14-day trial. Cancel at any time before the 14 days are over and you will not be billed.
Subscribe nowLogin
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Featured Articles
Bond Market Correction Did Not Happen In October
Our call for a bond market correction did not pan out in October, but yields did back up in early November as weak productivity and a surprisingly low unemployment rate were released.
Inflation Concerns
Inflation expectations seem to be on the rise.
Iraq Withdrawal? “No-Win” Military Conflicts’ Impact On the Stock Market
Is market rallying in anticipation of conflict resolution in Iraq? Bush will be under increasing pressure to resolve things before the 2008 Presidential election. We look at the Korean conflict and Vietnam war for clues about how this possible resolution in Iraq may play out in stock market.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Six Consecutive Months Of Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds
The last time there were six consecutive months of net outflow was over seventeen years ago, in 1989, when a protracted period of monthly net outflow followed the 1987 stock market crash.
New Select Industries Group Position: Reinsurance
Many stocks had outperformed in October and were retained in the Select Industries Portfolio, but there were enough sales to build new holding in Reinsurance.
October's Market Action
The stock market’s turbocharged advance continued into October, putting YTD performance for the majority of broad market indexes into the double-digits.
Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
Prior to 1992, the returns generated by this exercise were in the 15% to 20% range before being closed out in the subsequent year. 2006-2007 Performance is so far on track to match or exceed this range.
Sentiment Still Supportive
Sentiment measures still show pessimism among investors. Doug Ramsey looks at the current sentiment gauges for the market and also examines the current sentiment readings for 24 broad industries groups.
View From The North Country
Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- October's Market Action
- Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
- Sentiment Still Supportive
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Six Consecutive Months Of Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
Bond Market Correction Did Not Happen In October
Our call for a bond market correction did not pan out in October, but yields did back up in early November as weak productivity and a surprisingly low unemployment rate were released.
Inflation Concerns
Inflation expectations seem to be on the rise.
Iraq Withdrawal? “No-Win” Military Conflicts’ Impact On the Stock Market
Is market rallying in anticipation of conflict resolution in Iraq? Bush will be under increasing pressure to resolve things before the 2008 Presidential election. We look at the Korean conflict and Vietnam war for clues about how this possible resolution in Iraq may play out in stock market.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Six Consecutive Months Of Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds
The last time there were six consecutive months of net outflow was over seventeen years ago, in 1989, when a protracted period of monthly net outflow followed the 1987 stock market crash.
New Select Industries Group Position: Reinsurance
Many stocks had outperformed in October and were retained in the Select Industries Portfolio, but there were enough sales to build new holding in Reinsurance.
October's Market Action
The stock market’s turbocharged advance continued into October, putting YTD performance for the majority of broad market indexes into the double-digits.
Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
Prior to 1992, the returns generated by this exercise were in the 15% to 20% range before being closed out in the subsequent year. 2006-2007 Performance is so far on track to match or exceed this range.
Sentiment Still Supportive
Sentiment measures still show pessimism among investors. Doug Ramsey looks at the current sentiment gauges for the market and also examines the current sentiment readings for 24 broad industries groups.
View From The North Country
Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- October's Market Action
- Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
- Sentiment Still Supportive
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Six Consecutive Months Of Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds