Green Book January 2006
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Featured Articles
2005 Dreams And Nightmares
The year’s best and worst performing groups. Buying 2004 big winners produced good 2005 performance. How will 2005 winners do in 2006?
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2005
A look at the things we did well in the past year, the areas where we could improve, and those things that were downright wrong.
December Market Action
The end of year marked the third consecutive year of positive returns for the stock market, even though they were hardly the kind of gains that we saw in the earlier stages of the current recovery phase for stocks.
Did You Have The Right Mix In 2005?
2005 Performance Recap: Equities, Fixed Income, Large Vs. Small Caps, Weighted Vs. Unweighted S&P 500, Industrial Metals and AdvantHedge.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion is considered late stage.
Group Selection Scoring System: 2005 Performance Review
Group Selection Scores worked well in 2005. Buying top 20 ranked equity groups each month based on GS Scores produced a 19% gain for the year, well above the 3% S&P 500 performance (price only).
Inflation Watch
Major reason for lower inflation forecasts is expectation of slowing economy (recession?) in 2006.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Mostly Ignored U.S. Stock Market In 2005
2005's YTD tally is the second lowest going back 14 years, and demonstrates fund investors’ consistent aversion to U.S. focused stock funds throughout the year.
Playing The Bounce 2005 Update
Good but not a great “Bounce”, so far.
Stock Market Recovery….Typical In Duration, But Maybe Not In Terms Of Performance
Based on post WWII stock market recoveries, the current recovery could have some more upside (12% possibly).
Today's Yield Curve Inversion May Not Be Particularly Meaningful
Many economic recessions are preceded by inverted yield curves, but not all. There have been several inversions that have not immediately preceded a recession.
What Is Driving S&P 500 Earnings Growth?
The Energy sector is really driving S&P 500 earnings Growth.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- December Market Action
- Stock Market Recovery….Typical In Duration, But Maybe Not In Terms Of Performance
- What Is Driving S&P 500 Earnings Growth?
- Did You Have The Right Mix In 2005?
- 2005 Dreams And Nightmares
- Playing The Bounce 2005 Update
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Mostly Ignored U.S. Stock Market In 2005
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
2005 Dreams And Nightmares
The year’s best and worst performing groups. Buying 2004 big winners produced good 2005 performance. How will 2005 winners do in 2006?
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2005
A look at the things we did well in the past year, the areas where we could improve, and those things that were downright wrong.
December Market Action
The end of year marked the third consecutive year of positive returns for the stock market, even though they were hardly the kind of gains that we saw in the earlier stages of the current recovery phase for stocks.
Did You Have The Right Mix In 2005?
2005 Performance Recap: Equities, Fixed Income, Large Vs. Small Caps, Weighted Vs. Unweighted S&P 500, Industrial Metals and AdvantHedge.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion is considered late stage.
Group Selection Scoring System: 2005 Performance Review
Group Selection Scores worked well in 2005. Buying top 20 ranked equity groups each month based on GS Scores produced a 19% gain for the year, well above the 3% S&P 500 performance (price only).
Inflation Watch
Major reason for lower inflation forecasts is expectation of slowing economy (recession?) in 2006.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Mostly Ignored U.S. Stock Market In 2005
2005's YTD tally is the second lowest going back 14 years, and demonstrates fund investors’ consistent aversion to U.S. focused stock funds throughout the year.
Playing The Bounce 2005 Update
Good but not a great “Bounce”, so far.
Stock Market Recovery….Typical In Duration, But Maybe Not In Terms Of Performance
Based on post WWII stock market recoveries, the current recovery could have some more upside (12% possibly).
Today's Yield Curve Inversion May Not Be Particularly Meaningful
Many economic recessions are preceded by inverted yield curves, but not all. There have been several inversions that have not immediately preceded a recession.
What Is Driving S&P 500 Earnings Growth?
The Energy sector is really driving S&P 500 earnings Growth.
Stock Market
- December Market Action
- Stock Market Recovery….Typical In Duration, But Maybe Not In Terms Of Performance
- What Is Driving S&P 500 Earnings Growth?
- Did You Have The Right Mix In 2005?
- 2005 Dreams And Nightmares
- Playing The Bounce 2005 Update
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Mostly Ignored U.S. Stock Market In 2005