Green Book April 2006
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Featured Articles
Economic Outlook
Based on our 6-12 month yield targets, short end of the yield curve looking more attractive.
First Quarter Market Action
Stocks continued to move higher in the first quarter, with many of the broad market indexes finishing out Q1 near their cyclical highs.
Has The Yield Curve Lost Its Luster?
The traditional definition versus the new definition of an inversion...How real GDP has responded historically to past yield curve inversions….Effect of inversions on Financial stocks.
Inflation Watch
Inflation, particularly wage inflation, continues to accelerate. Wage inflation is now at its highest level since 2001.
Insider Buying/Selling In Technology Sector…..Some Isolated Buy Signals
At the market lows, the Tech insiders while not net buyers clearly slowed their aggressive selling.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Not Much Cash Flow Going Into U.S. Stock Funds
On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds— similar to what we saw for much of 2005.
PPI Remains Above CPI: Bad Omen For Profits?
PPI rate of change exceeds the CPI at present, and has been higher since late 2003. Could be a bad omen for corporate profits.
Tracking The Herd Mentality Of Corporate Buyers…..A New Indicator
In recent years cash acquisition activity has run highest when stock prices are high, and lowest when stock prices are down.
When Fed Tightening Ends...What Can Be Expected From The Stock Market?
Data from the last seven tightening cycles suggests that too way much attention is currently being given as to when the Fed will be finished tightening. The direction of the stock market after the last rate hike has much more to do with prevailing economic and stock market conditions.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- First Quarter Market Action
- When Fed Tightening Ends...What Can Be Expected From The Stock Market?
- Insider Buying/Selling In Technology Sector…..Some Isolated Buy Signals
- Tracking The Herd Mentality Of Corporate Buyers…..A New Indicator
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Not Much Cash Flow Going Into U.S. Stock Funds
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
Economic Outlook
Based on our 6-12 month yield targets, short end of the yield curve looking more attractive.
First Quarter Market Action
Stocks continued to move higher in the first quarter, with many of the broad market indexes finishing out Q1 near their cyclical highs.
Has The Yield Curve Lost Its Luster?
The traditional definition versus the new definition of an inversion...How real GDP has responded historically to past yield curve inversions….Effect of inversions on Financial stocks.
Inflation Watch
Inflation, particularly wage inflation, continues to accelerate. Wage inflation is now at its highest level since 2001.
Insider Buying/Selling In Technology Sector…..Some Isolated Buy Signals
At the market lows, the Tech insiders while not net buyers clearly slowed their aggressive selling.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Not Much Cash Flow Going Into U.S. Stock Funds
On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds— similar to what we saw for much of 2005.
PPI Remains Above CPI: Bad Omen For Profits?
PPI rate of change exceeds the CPI at present, and has been higher since late 2003. Could be a bad omen for corporate profits.
Tracking The Herd Mentality Of Corporate Buyers…..A New Indicator
In recent years cash acquisition activity has run highest when stock prices are high, and lowest when stock prices are down.
When Fed Tightening Ends...What Can Be Expected From The Stock Market?
Data from the last seven tightening cycles suggests that too way much attention is currently being given as to when the Fed will be finished tightening. The direction of the stock market after the last rate hike has much more to do with prevailing economic and stock market conditions.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- First Quarter Market Action
- When Fed Tightening Ends...What Can Be Expected From The Stock Market?
- Insider Buying/Selling In Technology Sector…..Some Isolated Buy Signals
- Tracking The Herd Mentality Of Corporate Buyers…..A New Indicator
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Not Much Cash Flow Going Into U.S. Stock Funds