Green Book September 2005
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Featured Articles
Adding A Position In The Airlines
Taking off with a flight on the Airlines. Added this contrarian play as a 5% portfolio holding. Group Selection Scores moved this group to Attractive in September, and most Airlines have made real progress reducing operating costs.
August Market Action
Considering the menace of record high oil prices and the devastation caused by Katrina— two topics which dominated the national headlines in August— stocks held up relatively well.
Cautious On Oil Stocks In The Short Term
Surprised that crude oil did not soar above $70. Price of crude seems to have double topped at $70 and some correction is expected in coming months.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.
Heads Up....It's Almost Time To "Play The Bounce"
Buy early and avoid the December rush. 2005 stock market could be shaping up as a good year for buying the big losers, as the institutional tax selling deadline approaches (October 31st).
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Continued To Outperform In August
The YTD performance of the Industrial Metals equity group is particularly impressive when you consider that the group was down 13.7% through mid-May.
Inflation Watch
Q. Why has your +3.8% 2005 inflation projection been so much higher than the +2.5% to +2.8% consensus?
Is Oil Overvalued Relative To Industrial Metals?
In comparison to crude oil, industrial metals are beginning to look like a real bargain.
Stock Market Supply/Demand: The Four Most Interesting Trends Of 2005
In reviewing the numerous Supply/Demand factors we track, there were four trends that are perhaps the most important and/or most interesting on this front so far in 2005.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From A Historical Perspective
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
View From The North Country
Carnage and suffering in wake of Hurricane Katrina is tragic and almost unbelievable. However, investment implications may not be as negative as many are portraying.
What Moves in the Fourth Quarter?
The top ten groups, from our 150+ group history, in each of the last six years during the fourth quarter (October to December performance).
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- August Market Action
- Cautious On Oil Stocks In The Short Term
- Stock Market Supply/Demand: The Four Most Interesting Trends Of 2005
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From A Historical Perspective
- What Moves in the Fourth Quarter?
- Heads Up....It's Almost Time To "Play The Bounce"
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Continued To Outperform In August
- Adding A Position In The Airlines
Inflation Watch
Adding A Position In The Airlines
Taking off with a flight on the Airlines. Added this contrarian play as a 5% portfolio holding. Group Selection Scores moved this group to Attractive in September, and most Airlines have made real progress reducing operating costs.
August Market Action
Considering the menace of record high oil prices and the devastation caused by Katrina— two topics which dominated the national headlines in August— stocks held up relatively well.
Cautious On Oil Stocks In The Short Term
Surprised that crude oil did not soar above $70. Price of crude seems to have double topped at $70 and some correction is expected in coming months.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.
Heads Up....It's Almost Time To "Play The Bounce"
Buy early and avoid the December rush. 2005 stock market could be shaping up as a good year for buying the big losers, as the institutional tax selling deadline approaches (October 31st).
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Continued To Outperform In August
The YTD performance of the Industrial Metals equity group is particularly impressive when you consider that the group was down 13.7% through mid-May.
Inflation Watch
Q. Why has your +3.8% 2005 inflation projection been so much higher than the +2.5% to +2.8% consensus?
Is Oil Overvalued Relative To Industrial Metals?
In comparison to crude oil, industrial metals are beginning to look like a real bargain.
Stock Market Supply/Demand: The Four Most Interesting Trends Of 2005
In reviewing the numerous Supply/Demand factors we track, there were four trends that are perhaps the most important and/or most interesting on this front so far in 2005.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From A Historical Perspective
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
View From The North Country
Carnage and suffering in wake of Hurricane Katrina is tragic and almost unbelievable. However, investment implications may not be as negative as many are portraying.
What Moves in the Fourth Quarter?
The top ten groups, from our 150+ group history, in each of the last six years during the fourth quarter (October to December performance).
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- August Market Action
- Cautious On Oil Stocks In The Short Term
- Stock Market Supply/Demand: The Four Most Interesting Trends Of 2005
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From A Historical Perspective
- What Moves in the Fourth Quarter?
- Heads Up....It's Almost Time To "Play The Bounce"
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Continued To Outperform In August
- Adding A Position In The Airlines