Green Book November 2005
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Featured Articles
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Give Back Some Performance, Still A Top-Rated Group
The weakness in metal equities this month was, in our opinion, mainly driven by a healthy dose of profit taking.
Inflation Impact On The Stock Market
CPI expected to decline in 2006 and historically a decelerating CPI is a significant stock market positive, producing above average returns. Stage could be setting for a market rally in 2006 as inflation pressures wane.
Inflation Watch - Core CPI Exposed
2005 Inflation Predictions Boosted: Now project twelve month CPI to accelerate to about +5.0% by year end.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Light Net Inflow Estimated For October
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $1.5 billion is estimated for October, which ends two consecutive months of net redemptions in August and September.
New Position In Application Software
Proceeds from group reductions were used to establish a new position in Application Software, which is currently one of four Attractively rated Tech groups.
October Market Action
With most indexes declining during October, it was not a bad month to have a portion of the asset allocation portfolio hedged.
Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
No rebound yet in the “Playing The Bounce” stocks. Could see turnaround in November.
Reducing Exposure To Independent Power Producers
Reducing exposure to Independent Power Producers in the all equity Select Industries Portfolio. GS Scores still rank group Attractive, but we are concerned about the “spark spread”.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Turning Japanese? A Look At The Rally In Japan Shares And How To Play The Turnaround
A look at the rally in Japan shares, and how to potentially play a turnaround.
View From The North Country
The perils of speculation in Housing…..lessons people are now learning. Also, client questions....and Leuthold's answers.
Will Traditional Defensive Groups Work The Same This Time Around?
For clients unable to shift to equity alternatives or increase cash holdings, this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section provides an update of our Defensive Stock group study in order to identify some potential hiding places.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- October Market Action
- Will Traditional Defensive Groups Work The Same This Time Around?
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
- Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
- Inflation Impact On The Stock Market
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Light Net Inflow Estimated For October
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Position In Application Software
- Reducing Exposure To Independent Power Producers
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Give Back Some Performance, Still A Top-Rated Group
Inflation Watch
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Give Back Some Performance, Still A Top-Rated Group
The weakness in metal equities this month was, in our opinion, mainly driven by a healthy dose of profit taking.
Inflation Impact On The Stock Market
CPI expected to decline in 2006 and historically a decelerating CPI is a significant stock market positive, producing above average returns. Stage could be setting for a market rally in 2006 as inflation pressures wane.
Inflation Watch - Core CPI Exposed
2005 Inflation Predictions Boosted: Now project twelve month CPI to accelerate to about +5.0% by year end.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Light Net Inflow Estimated For October
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $1.5 billion is estimated for October, which ends two consecutive months of net redemptions in August and September.
New Position In Application Software
Proceeds from group reductions were used to establish a new position in Application Software, which is currently one of four Attractively rated Tech groups.
October Market Action
With most indexes declining during October, it was not a bad month to have a portion of the asset allocation portfolio hedged.
Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
No rebound yet in the “Playing The Bounce” stocks. Could see turnaround in November.
Reducing Exposure To Independent Power Producers
Reducing exposure to Independent Power Producers in the all equity Select Industries Portfolio. GS Scores still rank group Attractive, but we are concerned about the “spark spread”.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Turning Japanese? A Look At The Rally In Japan Shares And How To Play The Turnaround
A look at the rally in Japan shares, and how to potentially play a turnaround.
View From The North Country
The perils of speculation in Housing…..lessons people are now learning. Also, client questions....and Leuthold's answers.
Will Traditional Defensive Groups Work The Same This Time Around?
For clients unable to shift to equity alternatives or increase cash holdings, this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section provides an update of our Defensive Stock group study in order to identify some potential hiding places.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- October Market Action
- Will Traditional Defensive Groups Work The Same This Time Around?
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
- Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
- Inflation Impact On The Stock Market
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Light Net Inflow Estimated For October
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Position In Application Software
- Reducing Exposure To Independent Power Producers
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Give Back Some Performance, Still A Top-Rated Group