Green Book June 2005
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Featured Articles
Energy Sector Profit Margins Have Never Been Better (1957 To Date)
With profit margins now at 9.85%, the Energy sector is now as good as it gets.
Everybody Seems To Be Asking About REITs
Andy Engel’s current take on the REIT sector. Discussed from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective. Should you be buying or selling REITs?
Examining Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
A chronological chart of the relationship between oil and stock prices.
Examining the Recent S&P/MSCI Global Industry Classification System (GICS) Changes
Standard & Poor’s/MSCI did their annual review of the GICs groups and made some changes...in a few cases adopting groups we had already established at The Leuthold Group and had been tracking for several years. This month’s “Of Special Interest” discusses the changes and presents our take on the new groups.
Have Falling Long Term Rates Ever Contributed To A Flattening Yield Curve Before?
Jim Floyd looks at the history of flattening yield curves. It is very rare for short rates to be rising with long rates coming down, which is what we are seeing in the current environment.
Industrial Metals Stocks: May’s Rally Fails To Lift Metal Equities
The Industrial Metals equities group has been very disappointing over the past three months, especially given May’s rally in the broad equity market.
Inflation Watch
We continue to be more optimistic about the dollar than most, and believe the post election U.S. dollar weakness was overdone.
May Market Action
For those who were having trouble remembering what positive returns felt like, May’s stock market strength probably came as welcomed relief.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Inflow Rises To 6-Month High In May
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $12 billion is estimated for May, the strongest month of cash inflow since November 2004’s $12.9 billion.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Very Late In Cycle, But Still Potential Upside
Stock market now it is third year. Based on the average performance, this may be getting long in the tooth.
U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
U.S. stock market is relatively overvalued on a composite basis when considering P/E, P/B, P/CF, Yield, and Market Cap/GDP.
View From The North Country
A special Kate Welling interview with Steve Leuthold. Discussion runs the gambit from Leuthold’s current outlook for the stock/bond markets, to groups he favors, to liquidity concerns, and hedge funds.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- May Market Action
- Energy Sector Profit Margins Have Never Been Better (1957 To Date)
- Examining Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Very Late In Cycle, But Still Potential Upside
- Everybody Seems To Be Asking About REITs
- U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Inflow Rises To 6-Month High In May
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
Energy Sector Profit Margins Have Never Been Better (1957 To Date)
With profit margins now at 9.85%, the Energy sector is now as good as it gets.
Everybody Seems To Be Asking About REITs
Andy Engel’s current take on the REIT sector. Discussed from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective. Should you be buying or selling REITs?
Examining Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
A chronological chart of the relationship between oil and stock prices.
Examining the Recent S&P/MSCI Global Industry Classification System (GICS) Changes
Standard & Poor’s/MSCI did their annual review of the GICs groups and made some changes...in a few cases adopting groups we had already established at The Leuthold Group and had been tracking for several years. This month’s “Of Special Interest” discusses the changes and presents our take on the new groups.
Have Falling Long Term Rates Ever Contributed To A Flattening Yield Curve Before?
Jim Floyd looks at the history of flattening yield curves. It is very rare for short rates to be rising with long rates coming down, which is what we are seeing in the current environment.
Industrial Metals Stocks: May’s Rally Fails To Lift Metal Equities
The Industrial Metals equities group has been very disappointing over the past three months, especially given May’s rally in the broad equity market.
Inflation Watch
We continue to be more optimistic about the dollar than most, and believe the post election U.S. dollar weakness was overdone.
May Market Action
For those who were having trouble remembering what positive returns felt like, May’s stock market strength probably came as welcomed relief.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Inflow Rises To 6-Month High In May
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $12 billion is estimated for May, the strongest month of cash inflow since November 2004’s $12.9 billion.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Very Late In Cycle, But Still Potential Upside
Stock market now it is third year. Based on the average performance, this may be getting long in the tooth.
U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
U.S. stock market is relatively overvalued on a composite basis when considering P/E, P/B, P/CF, Yield, and Market Cap/GDP.
View From The North Country
A special Kate Welling interview with Steve Leuthold. Discussion runs the gambit from Leuthold’s current outlook for the stock/bond markets, to groups he favors, to liquidity concerns, and hedge funds.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- May Market Action
- Energy Sector Profit Margins Have Never Been Better (1957 To Date)
- Examining Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Very Late In Cycle, But Still Potential Upside
- Everybody Seems To Be Asking About REITs
- U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Inflow Rises To 6-Month High In May