Green Book January 2005
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Featured Articles
2004 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
It would have been a successful strategy to buy the 20 worst sectors from 2003 at the start of 2004.
A Closer Look At Profit Margins
No matter how you cut it, we don’t expect to see much in the way of margin expansion. Further earnings growth will have to come from top line sales growth.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2004
This annual exercise is a critical examination of our research effort for the year...presenting both the things we did well and also those things we didn’t do so well.
December Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Demand Strong Going Into 2005
Equity funds with a domestic focus continue to face big competition from their foreign focus counterparts.
Did You Have The Right Mix In 2004?
Small Cap Stocks were hands down winners relative to large caps, while just edging out mid caps. This is the fifth consecutive year of small cap superiority.
Economic Outlook
Lower than expected 2004 budget deficit was a short term bond market positive, but longer term deficits are a negative.
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Stocks Slump In December, After Big November
Given the mostly positive performance in physical metals, profit taking was the likely culprit in pushing metal shares lower in December.
Joke of the Month
This was “lifted” from Bob Farrell, Farrell Advisory in Tenafly NJ, and garners the Blue Ribbon for Bob Farrell, a first time winner. Congratulations!!!!
Large Cap Versus Small Cap
Small caps continue to be the market leaders over large caps. This trend is expected to continue into 2005, as our small cap leadership model has recently improved, and is now rated slightly positive.
Looking Ahead To 2005
Continued U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative, but we are getting more optimistic about the dollar.
New Select Industries "Small Group" Holding: Distillers & Vintners
Adding Distillers & Vintners to “Small Group” holdings.
Playing The Bounce Update: So Far, A Very Good Bounce Season
December Bounce performance was especially good for small caps.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Crossroads For The Bull
- A Closer Look At Profit Margins
- Did You Have The Right Mix In 2004?
- 2004 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
- Large Cap Versus Small Cap
- Playing The Bounce Update: So Far, A Very Good Bounce Season
- December Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Demand Strong Going Into 2005
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries "Small Group" Holding: Distillers & Vintners
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Stocks Slump In December, After Big November
Inflation Watch
At Random
2004 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
It would have been a successful strategy to buy the 20 worst sectors from 2003 at the start of 2004.
A Closer Look At Profit Margins
No matter how you cut it, we don’t expect to see much in the way of margin expansion. Further earnings growth will have to come from top line sales growth.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2004
This annual exercise is a critical examination of our research effort for the year...presenting both the things we did well and also those things we didn’t do so well.
December Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Demand Strong Going Into 2005
Equity funds with a domestic focus continue to face big competition from their foreign focus counterparts.
Did You Have The Right Mix In 2004?
Small Cap Stocks were hands down winners relative to large caps, while just edging out mid caps. This is the fifth consecutive year of small cap superiority.
Economic Outlook
Lower than expected 2004 budget deficit was a short term bond market positive, but longer term deficits are a negative.
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Stocks Slump In December, After Big November
Given the mostly positive performance in physical metals, profit taking was the likely culprit in pushing metal shares lower in December.
Joke of the Month
This was “lifted” from Bob Farrell, Farrell Advisory in Tenafly NJ, and garners the Blue Ribbon for Bob Farrell, a first time winner. Congratulations!!!!
Large Cap Versus Small Cap
Small caps continue to be the market leaders over large caps. This trend is expected to continue into 2005, as our small cap leadership model has recently improved, and is now rated slightly positive.
Looking Ahead To 2005
Continued U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative, but we are getting more optimistic about the dollar.
New Select Industries "Small Group" Holding: Distillers & Vintners
Adding Distillers & Vintners to “Small Group” holdings.
Playing The Bounce Update: So Far, A Very Good Bounce Season
December Bounce performance was especially good for small caps.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Crossroads For The Bull
- A Closer Look At Profit Margins
- Did You Have The Right Mix In 2004?
- 2004 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
- Large Cap Versus Small Cap
- Playing The Bounce Update: So Far, A Very Good Bounce Season
- December Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Demand Strong Going Into 2005
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries "Small Group" Holding: Distillers & Vintners
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Stocks Slump In December, After Big November