Green Book February 2005
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Featured Articles
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Recession could possibly be getting underway by end of 2005.
Inflation Watch: 2005 Outlook
CPI and PPI declined more than expected in December due to impact of lower energy prices.
Is January Performance Predictive?
A look at the January barometer, indicates there is not much evidence that a weak January market portends weak performance in the remainder of the year.
January Mutual Fund Flows...Light Flows Are Troubling
It is clear Main Street investors have become more apprehensive about the stock market compared to 12 months ago when confidence was higher.
Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Still Rated Slightly Positive
Small caps continue to be favored over large caps by our Small Cap Leadership Model, despite slightly lagging the large caps in January’s performance.
Looking For Some Defense?
A look at which equity groups have historically held up best during market declines. We revived our “Defensive Equity Group” theme, with individual stocks selected from each of these individual defensive groups.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Was Trounced In January
Bounce stocks were trounced in January, especially small caps which plunged 19.3%.
Post Office Delivery Problems?
Testing the US Postal Service. Apparently, one can mail almost anything and usually it eventually is delivered (“eventually” being the key word here).
Profit Margins At The Sector Level
Jim Floyd has begun analyzing the profit margins broken down by broad equity sectors. He also looks at some of the factors which may have a specific impact on the margins.
Take A Wait And See Attitude For February
February sure came in like a bull, with the S&P 500 already up 1.8% through February 4th, while the NASDAQ has risen 1.1%.
Tracking Earnings Expectations…..Still Considered Bullish
Early Q4 earnings comparisons are better than expected, but further improvements in 2005 will largely be a function of better sales, not margin improvement.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold’s commentary on how he would structure a defensive portfolio.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Take A Wait And See Attitude For February
- Profit Margins At The Sector Level
- Is January Performance Predictive?
- Tracking Earnings Expectations…..Still Considered Bullish
- January Mutual Fund Flows...Light Flows Are Troubling
- Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Still Rated Slightly Positive
- Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Was Trounced In January
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
At Random
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Recession could possibly be getting underway by end of 2005.
Inflation Watch: 2005 Outlook
CPI and PPI declined more than expected in December due to impact of lower energy prices.
Is January Performance Predictive?
A look at the January barometer, indicates there is not much evidence that a weak January market portends weak performance in the remainder of the year.
January Mutual Fund Flows...Light Flows Are Troubling
It is clear Main Street investors have become more apprehensive about the stock market compared to 12 months ago when confidence was higher.
Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Still Rated Slightly Positive
Small caps continue to be favored over large caps by our Small Cap Leadership Model, despite slightly lagging the large caps in January’s performance.
Looking For Some Defense?
A look at which equity groups have historically held up best during market declines. We revived our “Defensive Equity Group” theme, with individual stocks selected from each of these individual defensive groups.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Was Trounced In January
Bounce stocks were trounced in January, especially small caps which plunged 19.3%.
Post Office Delivery Problems?
Testing the US Postal Service. Apparently, one can mail almost anything and usually it eventually is delivered (“eventually” being the key word here).
Profit Margins At The Sector Level
Jim Floyd has begun analyzing the profit margins broken down by broad equity sectors. He also looks at some of the factors which may have a specific impact on the margins.
Take A Wait And See Attitude For February
February sure came in like a bull, with the S&P 500 already up 1.8% through February 4th, while the NASDAQ has risen 1.1%.
Tracking Earnings Expectations…..Still Considered Bullish
Early Q4 earnings comparisons are better than expected, but further improvements in 2005 will largely be a function of better sales, not margin improvement.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold’s commentary on how he would structure a defensive portfolio.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Take A Wait And See Attitude For February
- Profit Margins At The Sector Level
- Is January Performance Predictive?
- Tracking Earnings Expectations…..Still Considered Bullish
- January Mutual Fund Flows...Light Flows Are Troubling
- Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Still Rated Slightly Positive
- Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Was Trounced In January