Green Book December 2005
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Featured Articles
Adding A Position In Home Entertainment Software
Group has rated Attractive for the past two months, after bouncing between Neutral and Attractive throughout 2005.
Assessing The Cycle….Putting Today’s Growth Into A Historical Context
Within the current cycle, the stock market recovery is mature, but based on the average post WWII recovery could still have some upside (S&P 500 to 1400?). Currently, earnings growth is well beyond historical averages, but the economic expansion is below the norm.
Debunking One Myth Of The Buy And Hold Rationale
Debunking one myth of buy and hold rationale. Showing how stock market returns change if investors avoid the best and worst performing stock market days. Essentially, anything can be proven with statistics.
Economic Outlook
Still view long rates as potentially vulnerable to strong economy and unexpected inflation.
Industrial Metals Stocks…..Roar Back In November, Remain A Top-Rated Group
Industrial Metal equities far outpaced both the S&P 500 (up 3.5%) and our Leuthold Materials Sector Index (up 7.0%).
Inflation Watch
CPI/PPI inflation twelve month rate of change has likely peaked and is expected to decelerate over at least the next 2-3 months.
Introducing Three New Group Ideas For 2006
“Video Gaming Technology” and “Affluent Consumer”; along with a new Jim Floyd quantitative screen: “Deep Value.”
November Market Action
Back at the end of October, virtually all of the primary stock market indexes were slightly underwater on a YTD basis, but November’s market action changed all that with an impressive rally.
November’s Rally Accompanied By Weak Market Breadth
The market rally in November, which carried many indexes to new highs, was not as broad-based as we like to see, but Breadth did improve some later in the month.
Playing The Bounce Update: Nice Bounce In November
The strong November results (across all three market caps) has now propelled the 2005 “Bounce” strategy to superior performance.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
View From The North Country
Introducing the newest member of the Leuthold Research Team, Doug Ramsey. Also, a discussion on what could push the Major Trend Index back to positive territory and
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- November Market Action
- Assessing The Cycle….Putting Today’s Growth Into A Historical Context
- November’s Rally Accompanied By Weak Market Breadth
- Debunking One Myth Of The Buy And Hold Rationale
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
- Playing The Bounce Update: Nice Bounce In November
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Moderate Net Inflow Estimated For November
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Adding A Position In Home Entertainment Software
- Industrial Metals Stocks…..Roar Back In November, Remain A Top-Rated Group
Inflation Watch
Adding A Position In Home Entertainment Software
Group has rated Attractive for the past two months, after bouncing between Neutral and Attractive throughout 2005.
Assessing The Cycle….Putting Today’s Growth Into A Historical Context
Within the current cycle, the stock market recovery is mature, but based on the average post WWII recovery could still have some upside (S&P 500 to 1400?). Currently, earnings growth is well beyond historical averages, but the economic expansion is below the norm.
Debunking One Myth Of The Buy And Hold Rationale
Debunking one myth of buy and hold rationale. Showing how stock market returns change if investors avoid the best and worst performing stock market days. Essentially, anything can be proven with statistics.
Economic Outlook
Still view long rates as potentially vulnerable to strong economy and unexpected inflation.
Industrial Metals Stocks…..Roar Back In November, Remain A Top-Rated Group
Industrial Metal equities far outpaced both the S&P 500 (up 3.5%) and our Leuthold Materials Sector Index (up 7.0%).
Inflation Watch
CPI/PPI inflation twelve month rate of change has likely peaked and is expected to decelerate over at least the next 2-3 months.
Introducing Three New Group Ideas For 2006
“Video Gaming Technology” and “Affluent Consumer”; along with a new Jim Floyd quantitative screen: “Deep Value.”
November Market Action
Back at the end of October, virtually all of the primary stock market indexes were slightly underwater on a YTD basis, but November’s market action changed all that with an impressive rally.
November’s Rally Accompanied By Weak Market Breadth
The market rally in November, which carried many indexes to new highs, was not as broad-based as we like to see, but Breadth did improve some later in the month.
Playing The Bounce Update: Nice Bounce In November
The strong November results (across all three market caps) has now propelled the 2005 “Bounce” strategy to superior performance.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
View From The North Country
Introducing the newest member of the Leuthold Research Team, Doug Ramsey. Also, a discussion on what could push the Major Trend Index back to positive territory and
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- November Market Action
- Assessing The Cycle….Putting Today’s Growth Into A Historical Context
- November’s Rally Accompanied By Weak Market Breadth
- Debunking One Myth Of The Buy And Hold Rationale
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
- Playing The Bounce Update: Nice Bounce In November
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Moderate Net Inflow Estimated For November
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Adding A Position In Home Entertainment Software
- Industrial Metals Stocks…..Roar Back In November, Remain A Top-Rated Group