Green Book September 2004
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Featured Articles
August Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In August
U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $5.0 billion is estimated for August.
Economic Outlook
Falling interest rates and declining oil prices should bolster consumer spending and hopefully get us past the current economic soft spot.
Industrial Metal Stocks: The Rally Continues
The strong relative performance in Industrial Metals shares over the past four months provides evidence that investors are beginning to buy into the sustainability of the current uptrend in metals prices.
Joke of the Month
Letter From Camp
Large Cap Growth Versus Large Cap Value
Large Cap Growth stocks are relatively cheap compared to Large Cap Value stocks. The next major trend should be in Large Cap Growth.
Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
Small Cap stocks lagged Large Caps in July and August. Possibly getting close to a formal transition in which Large Caps take over the leadership role.
Oil And Gas Prices In Perspective
In light of the continuing move in oil prices, we thought it would be useful to update our inflation adjusted oil and gas related charts from our June publication.
Playing The Bounce Season Approaching
An initial screen for potential bounce candidates compiled in late August turned up a list well in excess of 200 names, highly concentrated in the Technology sector.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.
Scanning The Markets
August produced very little movement in the major market indices, which was not so bad considering a difficult July.
Sector Spotlight...Energy
Based on oil futures prices, 2005 year-end consensus earnings forecasts for the Integrated Oil & Gas group appear too low! These too-low forecasts imply further upside for oil shares, and, at the very least, limited downside relative to the rest of the market.
Still Can't Count Out The Consumer
American consumer spending is still in an uptrend, helping to drive economic growth, although to a lesser extent. In the meantime, CapEx spending has been accelerating, which should serve to pick up any economic slack.
Tracking The Growing Cash On Corporate Balance Sheets
Yes it’s true that Small Caps have more cash on their balance sheets but, on a trend basis, the Small Cap cash advantage is shrinking.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..A Mature Bull Market
Current recovery tracking below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.
View From The North Country
Continue to conclude the cyclical bull market prevails but my level of conviction is down a few notches. Also, an oil message from the market and “Don’t Be Economic Girlie Men”.
What's Up With All The NIPA Earnings Revisions?
Most are aware of the recently released, relatively weak Q2 2004 ‘NIPA’ profits report. However, many may not be aware that NIPA earnings were recently revised downward for 2001-2003 periods.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
- What's Up With All The NIPA Earnings Revisions?
- Tracking The Growing Cash On Corporate Balance Sheets
- Oil And Gas Prices In Perspective
- Still Can't Count Out The Consumer
- Playing The Bounce Season Approaching
- Tracking The Market Recovery…..A Mature Bull Market
- Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
- August Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In August
- Scanning The Markets
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
August Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In August
U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $5.0 billion is estimated for August.
Economic Outlook
Falling interest rates and declining oil prices should bolster consumer spending and hopefully get us past the current economic soft spot.
Industrial Metal Stocks: The Rally Continues
The strong relative performance in Industrial Metals shares over the past four months provides evidence that investors are beginning to buy into the sustainability of the current uptrend in metals prices.
Joke of the Month
Letter From Camp
Large Cap Growth Versus Large Cap Value
Large Cap Growth stocks are relatively cheap compared to Large Cap Value stocks. The next major trend should be in Large Cap Growth.
Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
Small Cap stocks lagged Large Caps in July and August. Possibly getting close to a formal transition in which Large Caps take over the leadership role.
Oil And Gas Prices In Perspective
In light of the continuing move in oil prices, we thought it would be useful to update our inflation adjusted oil and gas related charts from our June publication.
Playing The Bounce Season Approaching
An initial screen for potential bounce candidates compiled in late August turned up a list well in excess of 200 names, highly concentrated in the Technology sector.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.
Scanning The Markets
August produced very little movement in the major market indices, which was not so bad considering a difficult July.
Sector Spotlight...Energy
Based on oil futures prices, 2005 year-end consensus earnings forecasts for the Integrated Oil & Gas group appear too low! These too-low forecasts imply further upside for oil shares, and, at the very least, limited downside relative to the rest of the market.
Still Can't Count Out The Consumer
American consumer spending is still in an uptrend, helping to drive economic growth, although to a lesser extent. In the meantime, CapEx spending has been accelerating, which should serve to pick up any economic slack.
Tracking The Growing Cash On Corporate Balance Sheets
Yes it’s true that Small Caps have more cash on their balance sheets but, on a trend basis, the Small Cap cash advantage is shrinking.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..A Mature Bull Market
Current recovery tracking below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.
View From The North Country
Continue to conclude the cyclical bull market prevails but my level of conviction is down a few notches. Also, an oil message from the market and “Don’t Be Economic Girlie Men”.
What's Up With All The NIPA Earnings Revisions?
Most are aware of the recently released, relatively weak Q2 2004 ‘NIPA’ profits report. However, many may not be aware that NIPA earnings were recently revised downward for 2001-2003 periods.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
- What's Up With All The NIPA Earnings Revisions?
- Tracking The Growing Cash On Corporate Balance Sheets
- Oil And Gas Prices In Perspective
- Still Can't Count Out The Consumer
- Playing The Bounce Season Approaching
- Tracking The Market Recovery…..A Mature Bull Market
- Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
- August Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In August
- Scanning The Markets