Green Book October 2004
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Featured Articles
Assessing The Unemployment Statistics
The BLS’ Household and Payrolls surveys have been hopelessly out of sync for much of the current economic recovery, leading to debate about which statistic should be believed.
Constructing A New Steel Position
Added a new holding in Steel stocks to the Select Industries portfolio in September.
Economic Outlook
Bond yields have declined 40-55 basis points in the past three months.
Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run
Getting late in the game for the bull run. This is no longer a young bull market, but we continue to believe the market can still move higher from here.
Growth Stocks: Where The Value Is
Large Cap Growth stocks are now cheap relative to Large Cap Value. Value segment still leads over Growth among the Small Caps and among the Mid Caps.
Industrial Metal Stocks: Share Prices Surge On Underlying Commodity Strength
Metals were a great place to be in the month of September, especially the latter part of the month.
Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Less Negative, But Still Rated Neutral
Small Caps were big winners in September, but our Small Cap/Large Cap leadership model is still neutral (despite a slight improvement in October). Transition to Large Cap leadership is likely in coming months, but momentum continues to favor Small Caps.
Playing The Bounce 2004-2005
Presenting our “Playing The Bounce” strategy, along with all the qualifying stocks. Many are Tech stocks. We may “Play The Bounce” within the asset allocation portfolios in coming weeks as market conditions present themselves.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
The average gain for the entire 12 month period spanning the pre- and post-election periods is not much different from the average gain in the comparable 12 month period for all years including non-election years.
Scanning The Markets
Many of the past summer’s trends reversed last month, as September saw a bounce in “smid” caps and in the tech sector.
Sector Spotlight...on Technology
Looking for Q4 tactical trading opportunities in Tech.
September Mutual Fund Flows...Return To Equity Fund Net Inflow
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $10.0 billion is estimated for September.
Should Slowing Earnings Growth Be A Serious Concern?
Earnings growth still coming in strong. While not as robust as past 3-4 quarter’s growth rates, earnings are expected to be above historical trend line growth for the next 4-5 quarters.
Stock Market Breadth Continues To Be Impressive
Market breadth using Advance/Decline Lines looks very bullish for stocks.
View From The North Country
After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run
- Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Less Negative, But Still Rated Neutral
- Stock Market Breadth Continues To Be Impressive
- Should Slowing Earnings Growth Be A Serious Concern?
- Growth Stocks: Where The Value Is
- Assessing The Unemployment Statistics
- Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
- September Mutual Fund Flows...Return To Equity Fund Net Inflow
- Scanning The Markets
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Industrial Metal Stocks: Share Prices Surge On Underlying Commodity Strength
- Constructing A New Steel Position
- Sector Spotlight...on Technology
At Random
Assessing The Unemployment Statistics
The BLS’ Household and Payrolls surveys have been hopelessly out of sync for much of the current economic recovery, leading to debate about which statistic should be believed.
Constructing A New Steel Position
Added a new holding in Steel stocks to the Select Industries portfolio in September.
Economic Outlook
Bond yields have declined 40-55 basis points in the past three months.
Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run
Getting late in the game for the bull run. This is no longer a young bull market, but we continue to believe the market can still move higher from here.
Growth Stocks: Where The Value Is
Large Cap Growth stocks are now cheap relative to Large Cap Value. Value segment still leads over Growth among the Small Caps and among the Mid Caps.
Industrial Metal Stocks: Share Prices Surge On Underlying Commodity Strength
Metals were a great place to be in the month of September, especially the latter part of the month.
Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Less Negative, But Still Rated Neutral
Small Caps were big winners in September, but our Small Cap/Large Cap leadership model is still neutral (despite a slight improvement in October). Transition to Large Cap leadership is likely in coming months, but momentum continues to favor Small Caps.
Playing The Bounce 2004-2005
Presenting our “Playing The Bounce” strategy, along with all the qualifying stocks. Many are Tech stocks. We may “Play The Bounce” within the asset allocation portfolios in coming weeks as market conditions present themselves.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
The average gain for the entire 12 month period spanning the pre- and post-election periods is not much different from the average gain in the comparable 12 month period for all years including non-election years.
Scanning The Markets
Many of the past summer’s trends reversed last month, as September saw a bounce in “smid” caps and in the tech sector.
Sector Spotlight...on Technology
Looking for Q4 tactical trading opportunities in Tech.
September Mutual Fund Flows...Return To Equity Fund Net Inflow
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $10.0 billion is estimated for September.
Should Slowing Earnings Growth Be A Serious Concern?
Earnings growth still coming in strong. While not as robust as past 3-4 quarter’s growth rates, earnings are expected to be above historical trend line growth for the next 4-5 quarters.
Stock Market Breadth Continues To Be Impressive
Market breadth using Advance/Decline Lines looks very bullish for stocks.
View From The North Country
After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run
- Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Less Negative, But Still Rated Neutral
- Stock Market Breadth Continues To Be Impressive
- Should Slowing Earnings Growth Be A Serious Concern?
- Growth Stocks: Where The Value Is
- Assessing The Unemployment Statistics
- Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
- September Mutual Fund Flows...Return To Equity Fund Net Inflow
- Scanning The Markets
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Industrial Metal Stocks: Share Prices Surge On Underlying Commodity Strength
- Constructing A New Steel Position
- Sector Spotlight...on Technology