Green Book May 2004
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Featured Articles
A Better Take On Equity Offerings…..Some Bullish Surprises From The Supply Side
Lately, there has been renewed interest on the topic of new equity offerings, and not without good reason. After a three-year dry spell in underwriting activity, the offerings calendar has seemingly sprung to life in 2004.
A Closer Look At Seemingly Cheap Valuations Based On Corporate Profits
S&P 500 valuations using corporate profits (National Income Accounts), not as cheap as suggested and are likely faulty, in our opinion.
April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Inflow Rises In April
Although recent market weakness has not yet resulted in any weekly net redemptions, weekly cash flow levels are becoming increasingly volatile…..perhaps reflecting the times.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($483 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
Fad Groups Revistied – Checking In On Nanotechnology
This month, we thought it may be interesting to revisit the Nanotechnology group, which has continued to attract a high level of interest from investors and speculators alike.
Financials Retreat In April
REITs and Financials still unattractive despite retreating in April. Financial sector weight in S&P 500 still too high given the interest rate climate.
Market Mood Swings
Bull market still intact, but investor appetite for risk remains subdued. April’s preference was for defensive and conservative strategies. Old axiom “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t seem to apply during the 130 days leading up to election day.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume Continues to Drop, But Dollar Volume Rises
In terms of attitudinal factors, this excessive optimism and risk-taking may be a sign of an overheated market and impending correction.
Octogenarian Lawn Dispute Turns Vicious
An ex-Marine, 81, was accused of threatening a former Guardsman, 85, with his service-issue machete.
Our Work With Beta Adjusted Relative Strength Pays Dividends
Over the last few years, we have been employing a beta adjusted relative strength calculation for high beta groups, along with the traditional relative strength. There are often more revealing signals given by the beta adjusted relative strength, especially in recent years.
Scanning The Markets
Small and Mid Caps stumbled hard in a brutal month of trading and the major indices didn’t do much better. In March, we noted the lack of strong sector trends among the best and worst performing groups. This definitely reversed in April.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
There was a brief pause last month in our Health Care scores, and we were proceeding with caution. This month, our GS Score work regained some of that lost momentum.
Short Term Interest Rate Considerations
What might the Fed view as a neutral position? Assessing historical yardsticks for guidance.
Small Cap Leadership…..7th Inning, But Game Could Be Rained Out At Any Moment
Our equity exposure still overweight in small and mid cap stocks, but we expect the market is progressing to a state of parity.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 13%-16% Potential Upside
Although the biggest gains are behind us, based on 1900-to-date, past bull market recoveries, the stock market still has potential upside of 13-16% over next 6-9 months.
View From The North Country
Kate Welling Interviews Steve Leuthold: The Leuthold Group’s commonsensical adherence to investment disciplines, thoughts on rising inflation, attractive investment opportunities, Iraq, the reliability of U.S. government calculated statistics and estimates, and an abundance of other topics along with engaging banter.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Market Mood Swings
- Small Cap Leadership…..7th Inning, But Game Could Be Rained Out At Any Moment
- Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 13%-16% Potential Upside
- A Better Take On Equity Offerings…..Some Bullish Surprises From The Supply Side
- A Closer Look At Seemingly Cheap Valuations Based On Corporate Profits
- April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Inflow Rises In April
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume Continues to Drop, But Dollar Volume Rises
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Financials Retreat In April
- Our Work With Beta Adjusted Relative Strength Pays Dividends
- Fad Groups Revistied – Checking In On Nanotechnology
- Scanning The Markets
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
At Random
A Better Take On Equity Offerings…..Some Bullish Surprises From The Supply Side
Lately, there has been renewed interest on the topic of new equity offerings, and not without good reason. After a three-year dry spell in underwriting activity, the offerings calendar has seemingly sprung to life in 2004.
A Closer Look At Seemingly Cheap Valuations Based On Corporate Profits
S&P 500 valuations using corporate profits (National Income Accounts), not as cheap as suggested and are likely faulty, in our opinion.
April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Inflow Rises In April
Although recent market weakness has not yet resulted in any weekly net redemptions, weekly cash flow levels are becoming increasingly volatile…..perhaps reflecting the times.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($483 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
Fad Groups Revistied – Checking In On Nanotechnology
This month, we thought it may be interesting to revisit the Nanotechnology group, which has continued to attract a high level of interest from investors and speculators alike.
Financials Retreat In April
REITs and Financials still unattractive despite retreating in April. Financial sector weight in S&P 500 still too high given the interest rate climate.
Market Mood Swings
Bull market still intact, but investor appetite for risk remains subdued. April’s preference was for defensive and conservative strategies. Old axiom “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t seem to apply during the 130 days leading up to election day.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume Continues to Drop, But Dollar Volume Rises
In terms of attitudinal factors, this excessive optimism and risk-taking may be a sign of an overheated market and impending correction.
Octogenarian Lawn Dispute Turns Vicious
An ex-Marine, 81, was accused of threatening a former Guardsman, 85, with his service-issue machete.
Our Work With Beta Adjusted Relative Strength Pays Dividends
Over the last few years, we have been employing a beta adjusted relative strength calculation for high beta groups, along with the traditional relative strength. There are often more revealing signals given by the beta adjusted relative strength, especially in recent years.
Scanning The Markets
Small and Mid Caps stumbled hard in a brutal month of trading and the major indices didn’t do much better. In March, we noted the lack of strong sector trends among the best and worst performing groups. This definitely reversed in April.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
There was a brief pause last month in our Health Care scores, and we were proceeding with caution. This month, our GS Score work regained some of that lost momentum.
Short Term Interest Rate Considerations
What might the Fed view as a neutral position? Assessing historical yardsticks for guidance.
Small Cap Leadership…..7th Inning, But Game Could Be Rained Out At Any Moment
Our equity exposure still overweight in small and mid cap stocks, but we expect the market is progressing to a state of parity.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 13%-16% Potential Upside
Although the biggest gains are behind us, based on 1900-to-date, past bull market recoveries, the stock market still has potential upside of 13-16% over next 6-9 months.
View From The North Country
Kate Welling Interviews Steve Leuthold: The Leuthold Group’s commonsensical adherence to investment disciplines, thoughts on rising inflation, attractive investment opportunities, Iraq, the reliability of U.S. government calculated statistics and estimates, and an abundance of other topics along with engaging banter.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Market Mood Swings
- Small Cap Leadership…..7th Inning, But Game Could Be Rained Out At Any Moment
- Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 13%-16% Potential Upside
- A Better Take On Equity Offerings…..Some Bullish Surprises From The Supply Side
- A Closer Look At Seemingly Cheap Valuations Based On Corporate Profits
- April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Inflow Rises In April
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume Continues to Drop, But Dollar Volume Rises
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Financials Retreat In April
- Our Work With Beta Adjusted Relative Strength Pays Dividends
- Fad Groups Revistied – Checking In On Nanotechnology
- Scanning The Markets
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch