Green Book March 2004
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Featured Articles
Are Most ETFs Un-Investable For Institutions?
Much has been made of ETFs, and their ability to attract fund flow. However, outside of SPDRs and QQQs, the liquidity and asset base of most ETFs is minimal and makes investing in most ETFs near impossible for institutional investors.
Bond Market Summary
The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds is back down to a normal level, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.
Developing An Affinity For “Undervalued & Unloved” - New Select Industries Holding
This value-oriented quantitative group has been rated Attractive for three consecutive months. Value, Technical, Judgmental and Insiders categories all contributing to current GS Score strength.
Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
Earnings momentum still strong. Q4 reported S&P 500 earnings came in stronger than expected and 2004 estimates boosted to $60.00 (up 22%) after recording a 78% increase in 2003.
February Mutual Fund Flows...Big Inflows Continue
The numbers continue to be strong. At this point, we attribute the strong flow to a combination of seasonals, and pent up demand.
Is The NASDAQ Recovery Over?
NASDAQ was only index to decline in February. Some are wondering if the rally is over for the NASDAQ. This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at past NASDAQ recoveries.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Up Dramatically In January
Checking in to review January’s trading data (month lag in data) in order to see what has changed since our last update.
Scanning The Markets
Investors reversed course from January with several of last month’s top performers becoming February’s worst performers.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care
Conceptually we think that the big drug stocks are poised to rebound, but they have yet to rank Attractive in the Group Selection Scores.
St. Patrick's Day...
This month we cleaned out the bank of Irish jokes. If you’re a fan of Irish jokes keep reading. If not, you might want to skip back to the more serious contents of this “At Random” section.
The Changing Character Of The Market In February
Market character changed in February, with investors focusing on less risky groups. High beta stocks, which had been leading for most of 2003 and early 2004, were the big laggers in February. Winners in February were conservative low beta issues.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 9%-12% Potential Upside
The current recovery has been tracking somewhat below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.
View From The North Country
Still expect to see market correction develop in coming weeks. Based on past market dynamics, a correction in excess of 5% is overdue, considering it has been almost 12 months of uninterrupted market upside.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- The Changing Character Of The Market In February
- Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 9%-12% Potential Upside
- Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
- Are Most ETFs Un-Investable For Institutions?
- February Mutual Fund Flows...Big Inflows Continue
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Up Dramatically In January
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Developing An Affinity For “Undervalued & Unloved” - New Select Industries Holding
- Scanning The Markets
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care
At Random
Are Most ETFs Un-Investable For Institutions?
Much has been made of ETFs, and their ability to attract fund flow. However, outside of SPDRs and QQQs, the liquidity and asset base of most ETFs is minimal and makes investing in most ETFs near impossible for institutional investors.
Bond Market Summary
The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds is back down to a normal level, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.
Developing An Affinity For “Undervalued & Unloved” - New Select Industries Holding
This value-oriented quantitative group has been rated Attractive for three consecutive months. Value, Technical, Judgmental and Insiders categories all contributing to current GS Score strength.
Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
Earnings momentum still strong. Q4 reported S&P 500 earnings came in stronger than expected and 2004 estimates boosted to $60.00 (up 22%) after recording a 78% increase in 2003.
February Mutual Fund Flows...Big Inflows Continue
The numbers continue to be strong. At this point, we attribute the strong flow to a combination of seasonals, and pent up demand.
Is The NASDAQ Recovery Over?
NASDAQ was only index to decline in February. Some are wondering if the rally is over for the NASDAQ. This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at past NASDAQ recoveries.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Up Dramatically In January
Checking in to review January’s trading data (month lag in data) in order to see what has changed since our last update.
Scanning The Markets
Investors reversed course from January with several of last month’s top performers becoming February’s worst performers.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care
Conceptually we think that the big drug stocks are poised to rebound, but they have yet to rank Attractive in the Group Selection Scores.
St. Patrick's Day...
This month we cleaned out the bank of Irish jokes. If you’re a fan of Irish jokes keep reading. If not, you might want to skip back to the more serious contents of this “At Random” section.
The Changing Character Of The Market In February
Market character changed in February, with investors focusing on less risky groups. High beta stocks, which had been leading for most of 2003 and early 2004, were the big laggers in February. Winners in February were conservative low beta issues.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 9%-12% Potential Upside
The current recovery has been tracking somewhat below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.
View From The North Country
Still expect to see market correction develop in coming weeks. Based on past market dynamics, a correction in excess of 5% is overdue, considering it has been almost 12 months of uninterrupted market upside.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- The Changing Character Of The Market In February
- Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 9%-12% Potential Upside
- Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
- Are Most ETFs Un-Investable For Institutions?
- February Mutual Fund Flows...Big Inflows Continue
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Up Dramatically In January
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Developing An Affinity For “Undervalued & Unloved” - New Select Industries Holding
- Scanning The Markets
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care