Green Book June 2004
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Featured Articles
Divorce Tip
This comes in from Pete “Snake” Johnson down in St. Albans Missouri. It’s a little long, but worth it. Thanks Pete.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($507 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
Enterprise Value: New Leuthold Group Numbers Game Screen
For the May 2004 Number’s Game, we decided to do something new and different and take a closer look at Enterprise Value.
Industrial Metal Stocks: Rally Continues With Bounce Off April’s Oversold Conditions
Industrial Metals group had nice rally after big decline in April. Early May increase in this portfolio group holding was very timely.
Market Volatility And The Presidential Cycle...Surprisingly Lower
This month, at the request of a client, we examined stock market performance volatility in the periods leading up to past Presidential elections.
May Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In May
While 2004 YTD inflow levels are not in “record” territory, this year has, so far, seen the second highest YTD level in history.
Nibbling At The Financials - First Group Exposure Since 2001
Making first Financial sector purchase since 2001, buying Life & Health Insurance. On a selected basis, there are pockets of attractive Financial groups, but we still advise being underweight this sector.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: April’s Share Volume Jumps As Dollar Volume Drops
In terms of attitudinal factors, this excessive optimism and risk-taking may be a sign of an overheating market and impending correction.
Russell 2000 Reconstitution
Based on recommendations from the investment services industry, Russell will shift the final day of its index reconstitution process to the last Friday in June, which is June 25 this year, instead of the last day in June.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
We see Health Care as a key theme in 2004. The sector is defensive, but sports high growth rates– hitting an investment “sweet spot”, which should allow for strong relative performance in any market environment.
Small vs. Large Cap Leadership...Small Cap Domination Also Getting Late In The Game
Still prefer the Small caps over Large caps, despite the fact that small caps are now selling at 1% premium relative to large caps, and that the small cap leadership phase is getting long in the tooth.
The Certainty Of Uncertainty
Uncertainty in Iraq, terrorist threats, rising inflation, and higher interest rates (and Fed tightening) have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum and economic recovery.
U.S. Market Overvalued, Not Undervalued, Relative To NIPA Profits
Contrary to some strategists’ studies the U.S. stock market is not cheap relative to NIPA (National Income and Product Accounts) corporate profits. In fact, like the majority of Leuthold studies, this metric indicates the market is overvalued.
View From The North Country
Leuthold believes the big depressant to stock market these days is not necessarily potential for rising interest rates or higher inflation, but instead is due to the gray cloud of the Iraq situation. Good news is that U.S. may be starting to extricate itself from the Iraq quagmire, and that could be a very bullish development in June.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- The Certainty Of Uncertainty
- Small vs. Large Cap Leadership...Small Cap Domination Also Getting Late In The Game
- Market Volatility And The Presidential Cycle...Surprisingly Lower
- Russell 2000 Reconstitution
- Enterprise Value: New Leuthold Group Numbers Game Screen
- May Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In May
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: April’s Share Volume Jumps As Dollar Volume Drops
- Scanning The Markets
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Nibbling At The Financials - First Group Exposure Since 2001
- Industrial Metal Stocks: Rally Continues With Bounce Off April’s Oversold Conditions
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
At Random
Divorce Tip
This comes in from Pete “Snake” Johnson down in St. Albans Missouri. It’s a little long, but worth it. Thanks Pete.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($507 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
Enterprise Value: New Leuthold Group Numbers Game Screen
For the May 2004 Number’s Game, we decided to do something new and different and take a closer look at Enterprise Value.
Industrial Metal Stocks: Rally Continues With Bounce Off April’s Oversold Conditions
Industrial Metals group had nice rally after big decline in April. Early May increase in this portfolio group holding was very timely.
Market Volatility And The Presidential Cycle...Surprisingly Lower
This month, at the request of a client, we examined stock market performance volatility in the periods leading up to past Presidential elections.
May Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In May
While 2004 YTD inflow levels are not in “record” territory, this year has, so far, seen the second highest YTD level in history.
Nibbling At The Financials - First Group Exposure Since 2001
Making first Financial sector purchase since 2001, buying Life & Health Insurance. On a selected basis, there are pockets of attractive Financial groups, but we still advise being underweight this sector.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: April’s Share Volume Jumps As Dollar Volume Drops
In terms of attitudinal factors, this excessive optimism and risk-taking may be a sign of an overheating market and impending correction.
Russell 2000 Reconstitution
Based on recommendations from the investment services industry, Russell will shift the final day of its index reconstitution process to the last Friday in June, which is June 25 this year, instead of the last day in June.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
We see Health Care as a key theme in 2004. The sector is defensive, but sports high growth rates– hitting an investment “sweet spot”, which should allow for strong relative performance in any market environment.
Small vs. Large Cap Leadership...Small Cap Domination Also Getting Late In The Game
Still prefer the Small caps over Large caps, despite the fact that small caps are now selling at 1% premium relative to large caps, and that the small cap leadership phase is getting long in the tooth.
The Certainty Of Uncertainty
Uncertainty in Iraq, terrorist threats, rising inflation, and higher interest rates (and Fed tightening) have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum and economic recovery.
U.S. Market Overvalued, Not Undervalued, Relative To NIPA Profits
Contrary to some strategists’ studies the U.S. stock market is not cheap relative to NIPA (National Income and Product Accounts) corporate profits. In fact, like the majority of Leuthold studies, this metric indicates the market is overvalued.
View From The North Country
Leuthold believes the big depressant to stock market these days is not necessarily potential for rising interest rates or higher inflation, but instead is due to the gray cloud of the Iraq situation. Good news is that U.S. may be starting to extricate itself from the Iraq quagmire, and that could be a very bullish development in June.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- The Certainty Of Uncertainty
- Small vs. Large Cap Leadership...Small Cap Domination Also Getting Late In The Game
- Market Volatility And The Presidential Cycle...Surprisingly Lower
- Russell 2000 Reconstitution
- Enterprise Value: New Leuthold Group Numbers Game Screen
- May Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In May
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: April’s Share Volume Jumps As Dollar Volume Drops
- Scanning The Markets
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Nibbling At The Financials - First Group Exposure Since 2001
- Industrial Metal Stocks: Rally Continues With Bounce Off April’s Oversold Conditions
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch