Green Book July 2004
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Featured Articles
Derivative Exposure In The Financials
Derivative exposure among U.S. commercial banks continues to proliferate at alarming levels.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
Headlines You Just Can't Make Up
There were so many great headlines and stories in June that we barely know where to start.
Industrial Metal Stocks: Rally Continues As Investors Revisit Bleak Supply Picture
The Industrial Metals group, our second largest Select Industries portfolio group holding, continued to rally in June.
June Mutual Fund Flows...Back In Positive Territory
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $11 billion is estimated for June, reversing May’s light net outflow.
New Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model
A matrix of factors to assess the relative attractiveness of Small Caps vs. Large Caps.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Large Drop In Both Share And Dollar Volume
A total of 38.4 billion Bulletin Board shares exchanged hands in May. This is the lowest level of the year.
Royal Blues….Annual Reconstruction
Ten new components inserted into this list of the 99 stocks with the largest institutional ownership. Smallest turnover in four years. Russell also being rebalanced.
Scanning The Markets
May’s late rally extended into June to the delight of market bulls.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
We view Health Care as a key theme in 2004. The sector is defensive and sports high growth rates thanks to the large (and growing) demand from elderly Americans.
The "Wait and See" Market
It now seems that the market has settled into a comfort zone— or put differently— a trading range that reflects investors’ current lack of conviction about prospects for the second half of the year.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..Bull Market Maturing, But Still Some Upside Potential
Based on the typical recovery, we constructed a series of monthly price targets for the S&P 500, going out 24 months from the October 9, 2002 bear market low, and from the March 11, 2003 secondary low.
View From The North Country
Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- The "Wait and See" Market
- Royal Blues….Annual Reconstruction
- Tracking The Market Recovery…..Bull Market Maturing, But Still Some Upside Potential
- Derivative Exposure In The Financials
- June Mutual Fund Flows...Back In Positive Territory
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Large Drop In Both Share And Dollar Volume
- Scanning The Markets
- Economic Outlook
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
- Industrial Metal Stocks: Rally Continues As Investors Revisit Bleak Supply Picture
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
At Random
Derivative Exposure In The Financials
Derivative exposure among U.S. commercial banks continues to proliferate at alarming levels.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
Headlines You Just Can't Make Up
There were so many great headlines and stories in June that we barely know where to start.
Industrial Metal Stocks: Rally Continues As Investors Revisit Bleak Supply Picture
The Industrial Metals group, our second largest Select Industries portfolio group holding, continued to rally in June.
June Mutual Fund Flows...Back In Positive Territory
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $11 billion is estimated for June, reversing May’s light net outflow.
New Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model
A matrix of factors to assess the relative attractiveness of Small Caps vs. Large Caps.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Large Drop In Both Share And Dollar Volume
A total of 38.4 billion Bulletin Board shares exchanged hands in May. This is the lowest level of the year.
Royal Blues….Annual Reconstruction
Ten new components inserted into this list of the 99 stocks with the largest institutional ownership. Smallest turnover in four years. Russell also being rebalanced.
Scanning The Markets
May’s late rally extended into June to the delight of market bulls.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
We view Health Care as a key theme in 2004. The sector is defensive and sports high growth rates thanks to the large (and growing) demand from elderly Americans.
The "Wait and See" Market
It now seems that the market has settled into a comfort zone— or put differently— a trading range that reflects investors’ current lack of conviction about prospects for the second half of the year.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..Bull Market Maturing, But Still Some Upside Potential
Based on the typical recovery, we constructed a series of monthly price targets for the S&P 500, going out 24 months from the October 9, 2002 bear market low, and from the March 11, 2003 secondary low.
View From The North Country
Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- The "Wait and See" Market
- Royal Blues….Annual Reconstruction
- Tracking The Market Recovery…..Bull Market Maturing, But Still Some Upside Potential
- Derivative Exposure In The Financials
- June Mutual Fund Flows...Back In Positive Territory
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Large Drop In Both Share And Dollar Volume
- Scanning The Markets
- Economic Outlook
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
- Industrial Metal Stocks: Rally Continues As Investors Revisit Bleak Supply Picture
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch