Green Book January 2004
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Featured Articles
2003 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
This month’s “Dreams & Nightmares” shows the best and worst performing equity groups in 2003. Be careful about buying 2003’s big winners. A better strategy can be achieved by buying the year’s biggest losers.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
This month’s “Of Special Interest” presents a critical review of what we thought was the best of The Leuthold Group’s work in 2003 and what was the worst.
Bond Market Summary
Fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($374 billion in 2003) is a significant problem for bonds. Project 2004 budget deficit will expand to $535 billion.
December Mutual Fund Flows...Inflow Momentum Continues
We have now seen ten straight months of positive cash flow, totaling $141 billion. This momentum will likely spill over into 2004.
Different Pictures Of Gold Prices
Gauging how much impact the dollar’s decline has had on the rising gold price.
Equity Performance By Market Cap Tiers
Weighted versus Unweighted S&P 500 comparison, Russell 2000 versus S&P 500 annual comparison and 2003 equity performance by market cap tiers.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Fever Breaks In November?
In the last few issues, we wrote about the sharp spike in OTC Bulletin Board trading volume observed in September and October. This month, we check in to review November’s trading data in order to see if anything has changed.
Ole Knows Everyone
This month's first runner-up comes from one of our newer associates, Hilary Van de Streek, the friendly voice who greets you when you call The Leuthold Group.
Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November And December
The 2003 performance through December 31st was relatively good, but somewhat below past years results.
Scanning The Markets
The equity markets ended the year with a bang, turning in very strong December performance.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector has rallied significantly from lows and is not cheap by traditional valuation measures. Upside driver is earnings momentum, which continues to be strong.
Tracking The Market Recovery
Based on the long term averages, there is additional upside to the bull market in 2004, if the S&P 500 tracks the “classic” recovery pattern.
Turning The Corner
After a string of three consecutive down market years, the closing bell on the eve of the recent New Year put to bed the first annual gain for the U.S. stock market since 1999.
View From The North Country
I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Turning The Corner
- Tracking The Market Recovery
- Equity Performance By Market Cap Tiers
- Different Pictures Of Gold Prices
- December Mutual Fund Flows...Inflow Momentum Continues
- 2003 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Fever Breaks In November?
- Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November And December
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
2003 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
This month’s “Dreams & Nightmares” shows the best and worst performing equity groups in 2003. Be careful about buying 2003’s big winners. A better strategy can be achieved by buying the year’s biggest losers.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
This month’s “Of Special Interest” presents a critical review of what we thought was the best of The Leuthold Group’s work in 2003 and what was the worst.
Bond Market Summary
Fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($374 billion in 2003) is a significant problem for bonds. Project 2004 budget deficit will expand to $535 billion.
December Mutual Fund Flows...Inflow Momentum Continues
We have now seen ten straight months of positive cash flow, totaling $141 billion. This momentum will likely spill over into 2004.
Different Pictures Of Gold Prices
Gauging how much impact the dollar’s decline has had on the rising gold price.
Equity Performance By Market Cap Tiers
Weighted versus Unweighted S&P 500 comparison, Russell 2000 versus S&P 500 annual comparison and 2003 equity performance by market cap tiers.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Fever Breaks In November?
In the last few issues, we wrote about the sharp spike in OTC Bulletin Board trading volume observed in September and October. This month, we check in to review November’s trading data in order to see if anything has changed.
Ole Knows Everyone
This month's first runner-up comes from one of our newer associates, Hilary Van de Streek, the friendly voice who greets you when you call The Leuthold Group.
Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November And December
The 2003 performance through December 31st was relatively good, but somewhat below past years results.
Scanning The Markets
The equity markets ended the year with a bang, turning in very strong December performance.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector has rallied significantly from lows and is not cheap by traditional valuation measures. Upside driver is earnings momentum, which continues to be strong.
Tracking The Market Recovery
Based on the long term averages, there is additional upside to the bull market in 2004, if the S&P 500 tracks the “classic” recovery pattern.
Turning The Corner
After a string of three consecutive down market years, the closing bell on the eve of the recent New Year put to bed the first annual gain for the U.S. stock market since 1999.
View From The North Country
I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Turning The Corner
- Tracking The Market Recovery
- Equity Performance By Market Cap Tiers
- Different Pictures Of Gold Prices
- December Mutual Fund Flows...Inflow Momentum Continues
- 2003 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Fever Breaks In November?
- Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November And December