Green Book August 2004
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Featured Articles
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 4.0% projected for 2004. Improved 2004 budget deficit projections a short term positive for bonds but eventually could be a negative.
Industrial Metal Stocks: Down, But Definitely Not Out
The strong relative performance in Industrial Metals shares over the past three months leads us to believe that investors are beginning to buy into the sustainability of the current uptrend in metals prices.
Joke of the Month
Evel Knutson, former Leuthold daredevil Norwegian stock trader, gave a lot of thought as to who would receive the coveted ribbon.
July Mutual Fund Flows...Main Street Is Cooling Toward Stock Market
Clearly, in recent months, the public has become much less enthusiastic about the stock market.
Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
Market seems to be moving toward a possible leadership transition from small/mid caps to large caps. Small caps significantly lagged large caps in July, and also now lag YTD.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Large Increase In Share Volume, Dollar Volume Is Flat
We have been following OTC Bulletin Board trading activity since the fall of 2003. This month, we check in to review June’s activity (one month data lag) in order to see what changes have occurred since our last update.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
The near term is becoming more uncertain for Health Care stocks, as HC groups have experienced an erosion in GS Score strength.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
Current economic recovery may appear to be lagging, with a GDP growth rate of +3.6% ACR since Q1 2001, but most recent five expansions averaged +4.2% ACR and the big 1990-2000 expansion grew at only 3.4% per year. Economy is still healthy.
Travels With Leuthold
In years past, this publication has included some of my more interesting and unusual travel experiences. So, for your August beach reading, here is yet another Travels With Leuthold.
View From The North Country
Terrorist threats, rising oil prices, the war in Iraq, and upcoming presidential election seem to have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum.
Weakness In Health Care GS Scores
Health Care was our top-ranked sector from March 2003 to February 2004. Since that time, the sector’s composite score has steadily fallen.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
- Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
- Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
- July Mutual Fund Flows...Main Street Is Cooling Toward Stock Market
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Large Increase In Share Volume, Dollar Volume Is Flat
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Weakness In Health Care GS Scores
- Industrial Metal Stocks: Down, But Definitely Not Out
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
At Random
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 4.0% projected for 2004. Improved 2004 budget deficit projections a short term positive for bonds but eventually could be a negative.
Industrial Metal Stocks: Down, But Definitely Not Out
The strong relative performance in Industrial Metals shares over the past three months leads us to believe that investors are beginning to buy into the sustainability of the current uptrend in metals prices.
Joke of the Month
Evel Knutson, former Leuthold daredevil Norwegian stock trader, gave a lot of thought as to who would receive the coveted ribbon.
July Mutual Fund Flows...Main Street Is Cooling Toward Stock Market
Clearly, in recent months, the public has become much less enthusiastic about the stock market.
Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
Market seems to be moving toward a possible leadership transition from small/mid caps to large caps. Small caps significantly lagged large caps in July, and also now lag YTD.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Large Increase In Share Volume, Dollar Volume Is Flat
We have been following OTC Bulletin Board trading activity since the fall of 2003. This month, we check in to review June’s activity (one month data lag) in order to see what changes have occurred since our last update.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch
The near term is becoming more uncertain for Health Care stocks, as HC groups have experienced an erosion in GS Score strength.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
Current economic recovery may appear to be lagging, with a GDP growth rate of +3.6% ACR since Q1 2001, but most recent five expansions averaged +4.2% ACR and the big 1990-2000 expansion grew at only 3.4% per year. Economy is still healthy.
Travels With Leuthold
In years past, this publication has included some of my more interesting and unusual travel experiences. So, for your August beach reading, here is yet another Travels With Leuthold.
View From The North Country
Terrorist threats, rising oil prices, the war in Iraq, and upcoming presidential election seem to have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum.
Weakness In Health Care GS Scores
Health Care was our top-ranked sector from March 2003 to February 2004. Since that time, the sector’s composite score has steadily fallen.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
- Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
- Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
- July Mutual Fund Flows...Main Street Is Cooling Toward Stock Market
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Large Increase In Share Volume, Dollar Volume Is Flat
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Weakness In Health Care GS Scores
- Industrial Metal Stocks: Down, But Definitely Not Out
- Sector Spotlight: Health Care Watch