Green Book November 2003
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Featured Articles
A Closer Look At Small Caps Versus Large Caps
Weight of evidence no longer overwhelmingly favors Small Cap leadership, but we believe they still have upside potential.
Below Average Returns Expected From Long Treasuries
New study by The Leuthold Group suggests below average Long T-bond returns can be expected from today’s below average Long T-bond yield of 5.19%.
Bond Market Summary
Economy picking up steam in second half. Early Q3 GDP estimate much better than expected.
Capex And Consumer Spending Back In Sync
Another confirmation of the strength of the recovery.
Convertible Offerings...The Stealth Supply Factor
With convertible issuance in 2003 running almost 23% ahead of common equity issuance, we thought it would be a good time to take a look at this subject.
Have You Ever Wondered?
This is another one of those scenarios where someone just didn’t have enough to do.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Consumer Electronics
Group upgraded to Attractive in October, scoring at very top of rankings for two months.
New Select Industries Group Holding: IT Consulting & Other Services
Performance has been hot lately, group beginning to be recognized as prime beneficiary of corporate outsourcing.
October Mutual Fund Flows...$116 Billion Net Inflow Over Last Eight Months
What is driving hefty net redemptions in retail money market funds? You might be surprised.
Playing The Bounce 2003-2004
This month’s “Of Special Interest” is an update of our annual “Playing The Bounce” exercise, in which we try to uncover stocks poised for a rebound after the tax selling abates.
Scanning The Markets
The equity markets turned in strong October performance. Only 4 of 150 groups had negative performance in October.
Speculation Is Back On The Bulletin Board
In mid-October, it was announced that OTC Bulletin Board trading volume surged sharply in September...very sharply.
Surviving Octophobia
No! We are not bearish on the market, but think a relatively minor correction (6%-8%?) could develop before year end. Market has moved up quickly, especially in October. So a pull-back is certainly plausible.
Tech Watch
Technology stocks rebound off late September sell off. The NASDAQ records its thirdbest month this year (+8.1%), and is now up 44.7% YTD.
View From The North Country
Leuthold’s thoughts about a potential near-term bull market correction, the current budget deficit, and observations on the political front.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Surviving Octophobia
- Capex And Consumer Spending Back In Sync
- A Closer Look At Small Caps Versus Large Caps
- Speculation Is Back On The Bulletin Board
- October Mutual Fund Flows...$116 Billion Net Inflow Over Last Eight Months
- Convertible Offerings...The Stealth Supply Factor
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Consumer Electronics
- New Select Industries Group Holding: IT Consulting & Other Services
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch
At Random
A Closer Look At Small Caps Versus Large Caps
Weight of evidence no longer overwhelmingly favors Small Cap leadership, but we believe they still have upside potential.
Below Average Returns Expected From Long Treasuries
New study by The Leuthold Group suggests below average Long T-bond returns can be expected from today’s below average Long T-bond yield of 5.19%.
Bond Market Summary
Economy picking up steam in second half. Early Q3 GDP estimate much better than expected.
Capex And Consumer Spending Back In Sync
Another confirmation of the strength of the recovery.
Convertible Offerings...The Stealth Supply Factor
With convertible issuance in 2003 running almost 23% ahead of common equity issuance, we thought it would be a good time to take a look at this subject.
Have You Ever Wondered?
This is another one of those scenarios where someone just didn’t have enough to do.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Consumer Electronics
Group upgraded to Attractive in October, scoring at very top of rankings for two months.
New Select Industries Group Holding: IT Consulting & Other Services
Performance has been hot lately, group beginning to be recognized as prime beneficiary of corporate outsourcing.
October Mutual Fund Flows...$116 Billion Net Inflow Over Last Eight Months
What is driving hefty net redemptions in retail money market funds? You might be surprised.
Playing The Bounce 2003-2004
This month’s “Of Special Interest” is an update of our annual “Playing The Bounce” exercise, in which we try to uncover stocks poised for a rebound after the tax selling abates.
Scanning The Markets
The equity markets turned in strong October performance. Only 4 of 150 groups had negative performance in October.
Speculation Is Back On The Bulletin Board
In mid-October, it was announced that OTC Bulletin Board trading volume surged sharply in September...very sharply.
Surviving Octophobia
No! We are not bearish on the market, but think a relatively minor correction (6%-8%?) could develop before year end. Market has moved up quickly, especially in October. So a pull-back is certainly plausible.
Tech Watch
Technology stocks rebound off late September sell off. The NASDAQ records its thirdbest month this year (+8.1%), and is now up 44.7% YTD.
View From The North Country
Leuthold’s thoughts about a potential near-term bull market correction, the current budget deficit, and observations on the political front.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Surviving Octophobia
- Capex And Consumer Spending Back In Sync
- A Closer Look At Small Caps Versus Large Caps
- Speculation Is Back On The Bulletin Board
- October Mutual Fund Flows...$116 Billion Net Inflow Over Last Eight Months
- Convertible Offerings...The Stealth Supply Factor
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Consumer Electronics
- New Select Industries Group Holding: IT Consulting & Other Services
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch