Green Book March 2003
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Featured Articles
Answering Client Questions
We always welcome the chance to hear what’s on our readers’ minds, and have often found that seeking answers to these questions can lead to new research topics, interesting charts, and new ways of looking at things.
Bond Market Summary
The grand 20+ year secular bull market in bonds is probably topping out.
Buying Opportunity At Hand
Buying opportunity at hand. Stock market professionals should be anticipating, not reacting. Today, I view current market malaise as a potentially outstanding buying opportunity.
Catching Up To The Guy Who Sold At The Market Top
Given various assumed compound rates of return, how long will it take for the investor who remained in stocks to catch the investor who shifted to T-bills at the top?
Energy Sector Strategy…..Tactical
Leuthold deactivation of two energy groups last month was a tactical move and does not represent a longer term bearish fundamental view toward the oil patch.
February Mutual Fund Flows...Investors Continue To Flee Stock Funds
U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $13 billion is estimated for February.
High Yield Bond Opportunity: Yield Spreads Widen, Opportunity Remains
We believe High Yield bonds remain attractive. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
How To Deal With Airplane Chatterers
Techniques that will often assure you an adjoining empty seat if the plane is not full.
Insider Block Measures....New Big Buy Signal Registered In February!
The latest reading is well into bullish territory and is the most positive reading on this indicator since the first quarter of 1995.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both ratios reconfirming a buy signal.
New Data Series: Leuthold 3000 Stock Universe Valuations—Growth Vs. Value
The initial framework presented with a snapshot of the current relationships.
New Group Coverage…Banking On The Community
Initiated coverage of a new banking group subset in our Financial sector that focuses on small cap, community-focused banks.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Biotech Implanted In Portfolio
New Biotech holding increased Health Care commitment in Select Industries to 27%.
S&P 500 Not Overvalued
The index is not currently “overvalued”…..Nor is it undervalued. Small/mid cap stocks cheap, but large caps also getting attractive.
Scanning The Markets
The stock market is off to a poor start in 2003, with the S&P 500 down 4.4%, and the DJIA off 5.4%.
Tech Watch
For the second month in a row, the NASDAQ was the best performing major index.
The Big Swings In S&P 500 Sector Weights
History shows us a number of economic sectors besides technology which have also experienced broad swings as the tide of investor enthusiasm ebbs and flows.
The Case For Cutting Back On Financials
Expect the S&P 500 financial weighting to fall to 14% or so over the next two years, as they underperform the overall S&P 500 index.
The Current Economy....Just Like 1992?
In the previous recovery, there was an extended period where the economy appeared sluggish, not unlike what we are seeing today.
View From The North Country
Consumer confidence now dismal. Historical analysis however indicates that good buying opportunities are typically found during periods of extreme pessimism. Currently view Conference Board measure as a stock market positive!
Volatility Update…..High S&P Volatility Continues In Early 2003
Volatility in the S&P was unusually high in 2002. And now in early 2003, it appears the S&P 500 is continuing to be extremely volatile.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Buying Opportunity At Hand
- S&P 500 Not Overvalued
- Catching Up To The Guy Who Sold At The Market Top
- February Mutual Fund Flows...Investors Continue To Flee Stock Funds
- The Big Swings In S&P 500 Sector Weights
- Insider Block Measures....New Big Buy Signal Registered In February!
- The Current Economy....Just Like 1992?
- Volatility Update…..High S&P Volatility Continues In Early 2003
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
- Answering Client Questions
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- The Case For Cutting Back On Financials
- Energy Sector Strategy…..Tactical
- New Group Coverage…Banking On The Community
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Biotech Implanted In Portfolio
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch
At Random
Answering Client Questions
We always welcome the chance to hear what’s on our readers’ minds, and have often found that seeking answers to these questions can lead to new research topics, interesting charts, and new ways of looking at things.
Bond Market Summary
The grand 20+ year secular bull market in bonds is probably topping out.
Buying Opportunity At Hand
Buying opportunity at hand. Stock market professionals should be anticipating, not reacting. Today, I view current market malaise as a potentially outstanding buying opportunity.
Catching Up To The Guy Who Sold At The Market Top
Given various assumed compound rates of return, how long will it take for the investor who remained in stocks to catch the investor who shifted to T-bills at the top?
Energy Sector Strategy…..Tactical
Leuthold deactivation of two energy groups last month was a tactical move and does not represent a longer term bearish fundamental view toward the oil patch.
February Mutual Fund Flows...Investors Continue To Flee Stock Funds
U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $13 billion is estimated for February.
High Yield Bond Opportunity: Yield Spreads Widen, Opportunity Remains
We believe High Yield bonds remain attractive. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
How To Deal With Airplane Chatterers
Techniques that will often assure you an adjoining empty seat if the plane is not full.
Insider Block Measures....New Big Buy Signal Registered In February!
The latest reading is well into bullish territory and is the most positive reading on this indicator since the first quarter of 1995.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both ratios reconfirming a buy signal.
New Data Series: Leuthold 3000 Stock Universe Valuations—Growth Vs. Value
The initial framework presented with a snapshot of the current relationships.
New Group Coverage…Banking On The Community
Initiated coverage of a new banking group subset in our Financial sector that focuses on small cap, community-focused banks.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Biotech Implanted In Portfolio
New Biotech holding increased Health Care commitment in Select Industries to 27%.
S&P 500 Not Overvalued
The index is not currently “overvalued”…..Nor is it undervalued. Small/mid cap stocks cheap, but large caps also getting attractive.
Scanning The Markets
The stock market is off to a poor start in 2003, with the S&P 500 down 4.4%, and the DJIA off 5.4%.
Tech Watch
For the second month in a row, the NASDAQ was the best performing major index.
The Big Swings In S&P 500 Sector Weights
History shows us a number of economic sectors besides technology which have also experienced broad swings as the tide of investor enthusiasm ebbs and flows.
The Case For Cutting Back On Financials
Expect the S&P 500 financial weighting to fall to 14% or so over the next two years, as they underperform the overall S&P 500 index.
The Current Economy....Just Like 1992?
In the previous recovery, there was an extended period where the economy appeared sluggish, not unlike what we are seeing today.
View From The North Country
Consumer confidence now dismal. Historical analysis however indicates that good buying opportunities are typically found during periods of extreme pessimism. Currently view Conference Board measure as a stock market positive!
Volatility Update…..High S&P Volatility Continues In Early 2003
Volatility in the S&P was unusually high in 2002. And now in early 2003, it appears the S&P 500 is continuing to be extremely volatile.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Buying Opportunity At Hand
- S&P 500 Not Overvalued
- Catching Up To The Guy Who Sold At The Market Top
- February Mutual Fund Flows...Investors Continue To Flee Stock Funds
- The Big Swings In S&P 500 Sector Weights
- Insider Block Measures....New Big Buy Signal Registered In February!
- The Current Economy....Just Like 1992?
- Volatility Update…..High S&P Volatility Continues In Early 2003
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
- Answering Client Questions
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- The Case For Cutting Back On Financials
- Energy Sector Strategy…..Tactical
- New Group Coverage…Banking On The Community
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Biotech Implanted In Portfolio
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch