Green Book July 2003
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Featured Articles
A Half-Time Report
Economy will pick up steam in the second half, sustaining the already in progress earnings recovery. Also, Cyclical rally targets and equity leadership going into the second half.
Bond Market Summary
“Risk-free bond returns could become return-free risks.” The Leuthold Group has hedged its fixed income position by shorting U.S. Treasuries. May completely hedge entire fixed income exposure later this month.
Inflationary Impact Of The Falling Dollar
Much of the upward price movement in commodity prices, as measured in U.S. dollars, is the result of the weak dollar. A weaker dollar has an inflationary impact on U.S. prices.
Iowa Three-Kick Rule
The winner was sent in by Oscar Schafer of O.S.S Capital Management in New York.
June Mutual Fund Flows...They’re Baaaack!
Unexpectedly, it seems that the public is coming back to the stock market. Best flow since May 2002. Typically, Main Street takes its time coming back to the party. Continued flow to mutual funds is stock market positive.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
While the NASDAQ short interest ratio continued to decline, the NYSE ratio increased in June.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Construction & Engineering
Group upgraded to Attractive this month, the result of strong quantitative improvement.
S&P Announces Huge Upward Revision In Book Value Calculations…..Without Explanation
We remain confused by the huge revisions without a valid explanation.
Saving Face...Is Japan Finally A Turnaround Play?
Japan appears to be getting its fiscal house in order. Opportunity may be developing here. We constructed a list of potential Japanese ADRs, and built an index to monitor the situation.
Scanning The Markets
After two strong months, the markets cooled down some in June.
Swimming In Liquidity...Fuel For A Thirsty Bull
Another bullish sign is huge buildup of cash now sitting on the sidelines earning 0.7% in interest. As investors put this money to work, stocks should move higher.
Tech Watch
This may be one of the few sectors that has the opportunity to provide 20% or more growth in 2003. If investors can get over their fears, they could be rewarded by the Tech sector.
View From The North Country
Stocks can go up, when interest rates go up. Rates are expected to rise over the second half of 2003, but stocks have proven they can go up in environment of rising rates.
Volatility Update…..NASDAQ Still More Volatile Than The S&P 500
In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.
“Sell In May And Go Away”
It looks like a strong first half can still lead to a good second half, unless the first half was really good.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A Half-Time Report
- June Mutual Fund Flows...They’re Baaaack!
- Swimming In Liquidity...Fuel For A Thirsty Bull
- S&P Announces Huge Upward Revision In Book Value Calculations…..Without Explanation
- “Sell In May And Go Away”
- Volatility Update…..NASDAQ Still More Volatile Than The S&P 500
- Insider Block Measures....Recent Increase In Selling But Reading Still Viewed As Normal
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Saving Face...Is Japan Finally A Turnaround Play?
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Construction & Engineering
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch
At Random
A Half-Time Report
Economy will pick up steam in the second half, sustaining the already in progress earnings recovery. Also, Cyclical rally targets and equity leadership going into the second half.
Bond Market Summary
“Risk-free bond returns could become return-free risks.” The Leuthold Group has hedged its fixed income position by shorting U.S. Treasuries. May completely hedge entire fixed income exposure later this month.
Inflationary Impact Of The Falling Dollar
Much of the upward price movement in commodity prices, as measured in U.S. dollars, is the result of the weak dollar. A weaker dollar has an inflationary impact on U.S. prices.
Iowa Three-Kick Rule
The winner was sent in by Oscar Schafer of O.S.S Capital Management in New York.
June Mutual Fund Flows...They’re Baaaack!
Unexpectedly, it seems that the public is coming back to the stock market. Best flow since May 2002. Typically, Main Street takes its time coming back to the party. Continued flow to mutual funds is stock market positive.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
While the NASDAQ short interest ratio continued to decline, the NYSE ratio increased in June.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Construction & Engineering
Group upgraded to Attractive this month, the result of strong quantitative improvement.
S&P Announces Huge Upward Revision In Book Value Calculations…..Without Explanation
We remain confused by the huge revisions without a valid explanation.
Saving Face...Is Japan Finally A Turnaround Play?
Japan appears to be getting its fiscal house in order. Opportunity may be developing here. We constructed a list of potential Japanese ADRs, and built an index to monitor the situation.
Scanning The Markets
After two strong months, the markets cooled down some in June.
Swimming In Liquidity...Fuel For A Thirsty Bull
Another bullish sign is huge buildup of cash now sitting on the sidelines earning 0.7% in interest. As investors put this money to work, stocks should move higher.
Tech Watch
This may be one of the few sectors that has the opportunity to provide 20% or more growth in 2003. If investors can get over their fears, they could be rewarded by the Tech sector.
View From The North Country
Stocks can go up, when interest rates go up. Rates are expected to rise over the second half of 2003, but stocks have proven they can go up in environment of rising rates.
Volatility Update…..NASDAQ Still More Volatile Than The S&P 500
In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.
“Sell In May And Go Away”
It looks like a strong first half can still lead to a good second half, unless the first half was really good.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A Half-Time Report
- June Mutual Fund Flows...They’re Baaaack!
- Swimming In Liquidity...Fuel For A Thirsty Bull
- S&P Announces Huge Upward Revision In Book Value Calculations…..Without Explanation
- “Sell In May And Go Away”
- Volatility Update…..NASDAQ Still More Volatile Than The S&P 500
- Insider Block Measures....Recent Increase In Selling But Reading Still Viewed As Normal
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Saving Face...Is Japan Finally A Turnaround Play?
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Construction & Engineering
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch