Green Book February 2003
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Featured Articles
Answering Client Questions
Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from January client meetings in Texas.
Ask Dr. Science
The good Doctor’s answers are appreciated by a small (and shrinking) group of readers. But, I was particularly interested in his response to a question from a Tucson resident. When I am in Tucson, I experience the same nostril rotation!
Bond Market Summary
The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds at the pinnacle is back down to a more normal range, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.
Financials…..Be Careful!
We think it is inadvisable to make a positive sector bet.
Goodwill Hunting…..When Goodwill Turns Bad
AOL write down of goodwill will create the widest difference between reported and operating earnings ever.
Insider Block Measures....Approaching Another Buy Signal
We would view a new buy signal as a bullish confirmation of the previous buy signal (registered October 30th).
January Mutual Fund Flows....Are January’s Net Redemptions An Omen?
If January’s net outflow is a precursor of what we might see during the balance of 2003, Main Street investors will miss a golden opportunity to invest during an early recovery phase of one of the greatest bear markets in history.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
NASDAQ ratio declines on increased volume. A new style this month gives the NYSE ratio more timely signals.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Health Care Cost Containment
This thematic group shifted to attractive for February after slow but steady improvement over last six months.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Telecom Survivors?
See strong opportunities after a two year shakeout has left the strongest players standing...now with improved balance sheets. The industry is not going away.
Playing The Bounce Update: Feeble Bounce In January From Small/Mid Cap Components
The January Effect still lives…..it just comes a month earlier, in December.
Scanning The Markets
Based on the broad market comparators, the new year got off to a poor start.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector is down significantly from all time highs, but is still not cheap by traditional measures. Upside driver will have to be new earnings momentum developing.
This Is Still A Cyclical Bull Market
Still bullish on stock market, expecting cyclical bull market to extend into 2004. Very worried that any easing of tensions in Iraq or Venezuela will bring crude prices down hard and fast.
View From The North Country
“Outside The Lines”: Incumbent protection now makes a Congressional seat virtually permanent.
Volatility Update
S&P 500 volatility running strong in January while the NASDAQ is still high but down from peaks.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- This Is Still A Cyclical Bull Market
- Playing The Bounce Update: Feeble Bounce In January From Small/Mid Cap Components
- Answering Client Questions
- January Mutual Fund Flows....Are January’s Net Redemptions An Omen?
- Goodwill Hunting…..When Goodwill Turns Bad
- Insider Block Measures....Approaching Another Buy Signal
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
- Volatility Update
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Telecom Survivors?
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Health Care Cost Containment
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch
At Random
Answering Client Questions
Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from January client meetings in Texas.
Ask Dr. Science
The good Doctor’s answers are appreciated by a small (and shrinking) group of readers. But, I was particularly interested in his response to a question from a Tucson resident. When I am in Tucson, I experience the same nostril rotation!
Bond Market Summary
The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds at the pinnacle is back down to a more normal range, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.
Financials…..Be Careful!
We think it is inadvisable to make a positive sector bet.
Goodwill Hunting…..When Goodwill Turns Bad
AOL write down of goodwill will create the widest difference between reported and operating earnings ever.
Insider Block Measures....Approaching Another Buy Signal
We would view a new buy signal as a bullish confirmation of the previous buy signal (registered October 30th).
January Mutual Fund Flows....Are January’s Net Redemptions An Omen?
If January’s net outflow is a precursor of what we might see during the balance of 2003, Main Street investors will miss a golden opportunity to invest during an early recovery phase of one of the greatest bear markets in history.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
NASDAQ ratio declines on increased volume. A new style this month gives the NYSE ratio more timely signals.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Health Care Cost Containment
This thematic group shifted to attractive for February after slow but steady improvement over last six months.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Telecom Survivors?
See strong opportunities after a two year shakeout has left the strongest players standing...now with improved balance sheets. The industry is not going away.
Playing The Bounce Update: Feeble Bounce In January From Small/Mid Cap Components
The January Effect still lives…..it just comes a month earlier, in December.
Scanning The Markets
Based on the broad market comparators, the new year got off to a poor start.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector is down significantly from all time highs, but is still not cheap by traditional measures. Upside driver will have to be new earnings momentum developing.
This Is Still A Cyclical Bull Market
Still bullish on stock market, expecting cyclical bull market to extend into 2004. Very worried that any easing of tensions in Iraq or Venezuela will bring crude prices down hard and fast.
View From The North Country
“Outside The Lines”: Incumbent protection now makes a Congressional seat virtually permanent.
Volatility Update
S&P 500 volatility running strong in January while the NASDAQ is still high but down from peaks.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- This Is Still A Cyclical Bull Market
- Playing The Bounce Update: Feeble Bounce In January From Small/Mid Cap Components
- Answering Client Questions
- January Mutual Fund Flows....Are January’s Net Redemptions An Omen?
- Goodwill Hunting…..When Goodwill Turns Bad
- Insider Block Measures....Approaching Another Buy Signal
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
- Volatility Update
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Telecom Survivors?
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Health Care Cost Containment
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch