Green Book December 2003
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.
Client Questions And Answers
A look at why our very overweight Healthcare position and zero weight in Financials has not hurt our performance this year.
Joke of the Month
We continued to scan our e-mails and search through the Joke Bank attempting to find seasonal jokes, but alas, none was to be found.
November Leadership
November correction we anticipated never materialized. December could be frosting on the cake as the last month of a very good stock market year.
November Mutual Fund Flows...What Fund Scandals?
Public does not yet seem to phased by the mutual fund scandals as November marked the ninth consecutive month of net inflow to U.S. focus mutual funds, totaling $133 billion of net inflow.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Speculation Still Reigns Supreme
September’s sharp spike in OTC Bulletin Board trading volume persisted in October.
Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November
There seems to be some decent performance coming from the large cap bounce stocks.
Price To Sales Ratios....Are Small Caps Still Significantly Cheaper?
On a price to sales basis, small caps sold at 43% discount to large caps at the end of 1999, but this has virtually disappeared in the past four years of strong small cap performance.
Scanning The Markets
The equity markets finished strong in November, after slumping throughout much of the month.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector has rallied significantly from lows and is not cheap by traditional valuation measures. Upside driver must be earnings momentum, which continues to be strong.
The 2004 Inflation Front
Inflation may prove to be a big surprise in 2004. This month’s “Of Special Interest” highlights several of the monitors we are watching regarding inflation.
This Isn't Good...
A recent study conducted by Hewitt & Associates found that 42% of 401(k) plan participants cashed out rather than roll their assets into an IRA or into their new employers’ defined contribution plans.
Tracking The Market Recovery
Based on the long term averages, there is additional upside to the bull market in 2004, if the S&P 500 tracks the “classic” recovery pattern.
View From The North Country
What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- November Leadership
- Tracking The Market Recovery
- Client Questions And Answers
- Price To Sales Ratios....Are Small Caps Still Significantly Cheaper?
- November Mutual Fund Flows...What Fund Scandals?
- This Isn't Good...
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Speculation Still Reigns Supreme
- Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.
Client Questions And Answers
A look at why our very overweight Healthcare position and zero weight in Financials has not hurt our performance this year.
Joke of the Month
We continued to scan our e-mails and search through the Joke Bank attempting to find seasonal jokes, but alas, none was to be found.
November Leadership
November correction we anticipated never materialized. December could be frosting on the cake as the last month of a very good stock market year.
November Mutual Fund Flows...What Fund Scandals?
Public does not yet seem to phased by the mutual fund scandals as November marked the ninth consecutive month of net inflow to U.S. focus mutual funds, totaling $133 billion of net inflow.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Speculation Still Reigns Supreme
September’s sharp spike in OTC Bulletin Board trading volume persisted in October.
Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November
There seems to be some decent performance coming from the large cap bounce stocks.
Price To Sales Ratios....Are Small Caps Still Significantly Cheaper?
On a price to sales basis, small caps sold at 43% discount to large caps at the end of 1999, but this has virtually disappeared in the past four years of strong small cap performance.
Scanning The Markets
The equity markets finished strong in November, after slumping throughout much of the month.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector has rallied significantly from lows and is not cheap by traditional valuation measures. Upside driver must be earnings momentum, which continues to be strong.
The 2004 Inflation Front
Inflation may prove to be a big surprise in 2004. This month’s “Of Special Interest” highlights several of the monitors we are watching regarding inflation.
This Isn't Good...
A recent study conducted by Hewitt & Associates found that 42% of 401(k) plan participants cashed out rather than roll their assets into an IRA or into their new employers’ defined contribution plans.
Tracking The Market Recovery
Based on the long term averages, there is additional upside to the bull market in 2004, if the S&P 500 tracks the “classic” recovery pattern.
View From The North Country
What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- November Leadership
- Tracking The Market Recovery
- Client Questions And Answers
- Price To Sales Ratios....Are Small Caps Still Significantly Cheaper?
- November Mutual Fund Flows...What Fund Scandals?
- This Isn't Good...
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Speculation Still Reigns Supreme
- Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November