Green Book April 2003
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Featured Articles
Answering Client Questions
Each month, we get a number of client questions via meetings, phone calls, and e-mails regarding various aspects of our research.
Bond Market Summary
New bond market timing tool discovered. Testing reveals it has a remarkable forecasting record. Currently signaling bond market top!
Cutting The Drug Business Five Ways
We’ve carved out subsets from Wall Street’s oversimplified classification of drug stocks.
Declining Defined Contribution Participation
A recently released survey of over 500 large and mid size employers found that the employee participation rate in 401(k) plans dropped to a level not seen since the early 1990s.
Insider Block Measures....Back Into “Normal” Net Selling Territory From Bullish Zone
The latest 10-week reading of 0.27% has risen back into the normal zone after spending six weeks in bullish territory.
Joke of the Month
Bobbie Deemer in (No) Port St. Lucie is this month’s hands down winner.
March Mutual Fund Flows...Fleeing Stocks, Chasing Bonds
Past history shows the market can recover in spite of an absence of Main Street support.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both ratios still bullish.
New Theme Group..... “Rebuilding Iraq”
A new group of companies that we think have a good shot at being involved in the reconstruction of Iraq.
Scanning The Markets
The S&P 500 was up 0.8% in March, but ended Q1 down 3.6%.
Select Industries Sector Focus
Equity Portfolio concentrated in Health Care and Technology. Looking ahead to other potential areas of leadership: Oil Patch, Telecom Survivors, Airlines, and Unregulated Energy Producers.
Short Term Group Leaders & Laggers
On March 11th, the stock market made a new low for the year. But in anticipation of a final resolution with Saddam Hussein, the market bounced off those lows and closed higher for eight trading days in a row.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector is down significantly from all time highs, but is still not cheap by traditional measures.
View From The North Country
“View From The North Country” this month highlights several prior periods of “scary” market environments. In retrospect, all provided excellent buying opportunities.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Still High, But Coming Down
In Q1, the instances of High Volatility in the S&P 500 was at the fifth highest level dating back to 1900.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Short Term Group Leaders & Laggers
- March Mutual Fund Flows...Fleeing Stocks, Chasing Bonds
- Declining Defined Contribution Participation
- Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Still High, But Coming Down
- Insider Block Measures....Back Into “Normal” Net Selling Territory From Bullish Zone
- Answering Client Questions
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Select Industries Sector Focus
- New Theme Group..... “Rebuilding Iraq”
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch
At Random
Answering Client Questions
Each month, we get a number of client questions via meetings, phone calls, and e-mails regarding various aspects of our research.
Bond Market Summary
New bond market timing tool discovered. Testing reveals it has a remarkable forecasting record. Currently signaling bond market top!
Cutting The Drug Business Five Ways
We’ve carved out subsets from Wall Street’s oversimplified classification of drug stocks.
Declining Defined Contribution Participation
A recently released survey of over 500 large and mid size employers found that the employee participation rate in 401(k) plans dropped to a level not seen since the early 1990s.
Insider Block Measures....Back Into “Normal” Net Selling Territory From Bullish Zone
The latest 10-week reading of 0.27% has risen back into the normal zone after spending six weeks in bullish territory.
Joke of the Month
Bobbie Deemer in (No) Port St. Lucie is this month’s hands down winner.
March Mutual Fund Flows...Fleeing Stocks, Chasing Bonds
Past history shows the market can recover in spite of an absence of Main Street support.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both ratios still bullish.
New Theme Group..... “Rebuilding Iraq”
A new group of companies that we think have a good shot at being involved in the reconstruction of Iraq.
Scanning The Markets
The S&P 500 was up 0.8% in March, but ended Q1 down 3.6%.
Select Industries Sector Focus
Equity Portfolio concentrated in Health Care and Technology. Looking ahead to other potential areas of leadership: Oil Patch, Telecom Survivors, Airlines, and Unregulated Energy Producers.
Short Term Group Leaders & Laggers
On March 11th, the stock market made a new low for the year. But in anticipation of a final resolution with Saddam Hussein, the market bounced off those lows and closed higher for eight trading days in a row.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector is down significantly from all time highs, but is still not cheap by traditional measures.
View From The North Country
“View From The North Country” this month highlights several prior periods of “scary” market environments. In retrospect, all provided excellent buying opportunities.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Still High, But Coming Down
In Q1, the instances of High Volatility in the S&P 500 was at the fifth highest level dating back to 1900.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Short Term Group Leaders & Laggers
- March Mutual Fund Flows...Fleeing Stocks, Chasing Bonds
- Declining Defined Contribution Participation
- Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Still High, But Coming Down
- Insider Block Measures....Back Into “Normal” Net Selling Territory From Bullish Zone
- Answering Client Questions
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Select Industries Sector Focus
- New Theme Group..... “Rebuilding Iraq”
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch