Green Book November 2002
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Featured Articles
A New Cyclical Bull Market
Continued positive economic data. Q3 GDP up 3.1%. Initial unemployment claims trending down. Capex is rising. Group leadership in early stages of recovery: big initial Tech and Telecom bounce from the October 9th low, but will it be sustained?
Bond Market Summary
We believe it is an opportune time to add to High Yield positions. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
Did You Ever Wonder…….?
Ever wonder about the origins of swear words? Probably not, but I have. One of our New York readers has sent in a learned explanation of the origin of the “S” word.
Eye On The Consumer
Important pillars of economic bridge until Capex kicks in and business confidence improves. Interest only mortgages-the ticking time bomb debt. U.S. Consumer debt OK compared with other countries but, what happens when interest rates rise?
Insider Block Measures....Selling Pressure From Insiders Continues To Wane
Latest 10-week reading of 0.29% remains in the normal range of net selling territory.
NYSE Moving To Westchester Is Not Nearly Enough
This month’s feature was written by Don Weeden, still a Maverick and Innovator! Named one of the fifty most significant people in the securities business since 1950. “…...The world’s premier market center remains dangerously exposed. A move to Westchester won’t diminish the danger.”
New Select Industries Group Holding: Constructing Position In Home Improvement Retail
At the beginning of October, the Home Improvement Retail group rose to Attractive based on our GS Scoring System. With the November calculation, this group got even more Attractive.
October Mutual Fund Flows
October’s weekly fund flow was interesting to watch because it really confirmed that Main Street’s investing patterns in past bear markets could be repeating in the latest cycle, at least so far.
P/E Peaks and Troughs…..Since World War II
It’s possible that valuations could ultimately fall to their “ultra cheap” levels, with P/E ratios around 10x earnings. However, it is more typical for bear markets to bottom around the median P/E levels of 16.0x.
Playing The Bounce Update
The Leuthold Group is not currently “Playing The Bounce,” but may do so in December, depending on market conditions.
S&P's "Core" Earnings Methodology Losing Support?
We applauded S&P for developing a standardized approach which adjusts GAAP earnings for several problem accounting areas and produces a better representation of “True” earnings.
Scanning The Markets
The stock market rallied in October, with large cap growth stocks leading the way.
Short Interest...Short Interest Still High Despite October Performance
Short interest was actually up 1.1%, but a 16% surge in average daily volume accounted for the short interest ratio decline.
Tech Watch
October provided welcomed relief for technology stock investors. After an average loss of 18% for tech stocks in September, the October rebound came along and more than made up for the loss in most cases.
View From The North Country
Just buy and hold good blue chip stocks? …..No growth is permanent.
Volatility Update…..Both S&P 500 And NASDAQ Very Volatile
October's reading the most volatile in the S&P 500 since 1938 and fifth highest over the entire history of this work.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A New Cyclical Bull Market
- Eye On The Consumer
- S&P's "Core" Earnings Methodology Losing Support?
- P/E Peaks and Troughs…..Since World War II
- Playing The Bounce Update
- October Mutual Fund Flows
- Volatility Update…..Both S&P 500 And NASDAQ Very Volatile
- Insider Block Measures....Selling Pressure From Insiders Continues To Wane
- Short Interest...Short Interest Still High Despite October Performance
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Constructing Position In Home Improvement Retail
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch
At Random
A New Cyclical Bull Market
Continued positive economic data. Q3 GDP up 3.1%. Initial unemployment claims trending down. Capex is rising. Group leadership in early stages of recovery: big initial Tech and Telecom bounce from the October 9th low, but will it be sustained?
Bond Market Summary
We believe it is an opportune time to add to High Yield positions. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
Did You Ever Wonder…….?
Ever wonder about the origins of swear words? Probably not, but I have. One of our New York readers has sent in a learned explanation of the origin of the “S” word.
Eye On The Consumer
Important pillars of economic bridge until Capex kicks in and business confidence improves. Interest only mortgages-the ticking time bomb debt. U.S. Consumer debt OK compared with other countries but, what happens when interest rates rise?
Insider Block Measures....Selling Pressure From Insiders Continues To Wane
Latest 10-week reading of 0.29% remains in the normal range of net selling territory.
NYSE Moving To Westchester Is Not Nearly Enough
This month’s feature was written by Don Weeden, still a Maverick and Innovator! Named one of the fifty most significant people in the securities business since 1950. “…...The world’s premier market center remains dangerously exposed. A move to Westchester won’t diminish the danger.”
New Select Industries Group Holding: Constructing Position In Home Improvement Retail
At the beginning of October, the Home Improvement Retail group rose to Attractive based on our GS Scoring System. With the November calculation, this group got even more Attractive.
October Mutual Fund Flows
October’s weekly fund flow was interesting to watch because it really confirmed that Main Street’s investing patterns in past bear markets could be repeating in the latest cycle, at least so far.
P/E Peaks and Troughs…..Since World War II
It’s possible that valuations could ultimately fall to their “ultra cheap” levels, with P/E ratios around 10x earnings. However, it is more typical for bear markets to bottom around the median P/E levels of 16.0x.
Playing The Bounce Update
The Leuthold Group is not currently “Playing The Bounce,” but may do so in December, depending on market conditions.
S&P's "Core" Earnings Methodology Losing Support?
We applauded S&P for developing a standardized approach which adjusts GAAP earnings for several problem accounting areas and produces a better representation of “True” earnings.
Scanning The Markets
The stock market rallied in October, with large cap growth stocks leading the way.
Short Interest...Short Interest Still High Despite October Performance
Short interest was actually up 1.1%, but a 16% surge in average daily volume accounted for the short interest ratio decline.
Tech Watch
October provided welcomed relief for technology stock investors. After an average loss of 18% for tech stocks in September, the October rebound came along and more than made up for the loss in most cases.
View From The North Country
Just buy and hold good blue chip stocks? …..No growth is permanent.
Volatility Update…..Both S&P 500 And NASDAQ Very Volatile
October's reading the most volatile in the S&P 500 since 1938 and fifth highest over the entire history of this work.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A New Cyclical Bull Market
- Eye On The Consumer
- S&P's "Core" Earnings Methodology Losing Support?
- P/E Peaks and Troughs…..Since World War II
- Playing The Bounce Update
- October Mutual Fund Flows
- Volatility Update…..Both S&P 500 And NASDAQ Very Volatile
- Insider Block Measures....Selling Pressure From Insiders Continues To Wane
- Short Interest...Short Interest Still High Despite October Performance
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Constructing Position In Home Improvement Retail
- Scanning The Markets
- Tech Watch