Green Book March 2002
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Featured Articles
A Bumpy Road To Recovery
Market begins to shake off “Enronitis” and as economic positives continue, the next rally could come quickly. And yes, it was a recession.
Bond Market Summary
Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Changes In The Global Industry Classification Structure
On March 31, MSCI/S&P set a number of changes into effect. Many already outlined in our sector book Equity Strategies.
Fad Groups
Looking at performance swings of Nanotechnology, Internet Software & Services, and Internet Reatil.
February Mutual Fund Flows
January and February’s cash flows have picked up from the very low levels seen throughout 2001, but this is not necessarily a sign that Main Street investors have fallen in love with the stock market again.
Insider Block Measures
Remains in normal historical range.
Joke of the Month
We experienced heavy joke flow in February and have co-runners up, from two of The Leuthold Group team. Mary Ann McCoy (a first time winner) in Denver takes the Big Blue.
NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
Slight decrease this month, but still riding the August buy signal.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Auto Parts & Equipment
Strong scores in Technicals and Relative Strength categories. Group has been in consolidation for years, but poised to test 1999 highs.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Specialty Stores
Group ranking Attractive for two consecutive months. Good marks in Growth, Value, Relative Strength and VLT Momentum. Provides a solid play on improving economy.
Revisiting The "Economic Recover" Leaders
In July 2001, we produced a study examining which groups perform best coming out of a recession. Being published before the current recession was declared, few probably caught the relevance.
Scanning The Markets
So far in 2002, the stock market has focused on one thing...solid fundamentals.
Tech Watch
S&P Tech clobbered in February, but median PE ratio still rising for 6th straight month as almost half of our tech index has no earnings.
View From The North Country
Last month in this section we discussed the DALBAR study finding that mutual fund investors radically underperform. Their conclusions seemed reasonable, but the degree of underperformance was difficult to believe. We begin to examine their methodology this month.
Volatility Update
While the markets are still very volatile, the vast majority of our volatility charts show 2001 levels down somewhat from 2000.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A Bumpy Road To Recovery
- February Mutual Fund Flows
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Insider Block Measures
- NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
- Changes In The Global Industry Classification Structure
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch
- Fad Groups
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Auto Parts & Equipment
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Specialty Stores
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
A Bumpy Road To Recovery
Market begins to shake off “Enronitis” and as economic positives continue, the next rally could come quickly. And yes, it was a recession.
Bond Market Summary
Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Changes In The Global Industry Classification Structure
On March 31, MSCI/S&P set a number of changes into effect. Many already outlined in our sector book Equity Strategies.
Fad Groups
Looking at performance swings of Nanotechnology, Internet Software & Services, and Internet Reatil.
February Mutual Fund Flows
January and February’s cash flows have picked up from the very low levels seen throughout 2001, but this is not necessarily a sign that Main Street investors have fallen in love with the stock market again.
Insider Block Measures
Remains in normal historical range.
Joke of the Month
We experienced heavy joke flow in February and have co-runners up, from two of The Leuthold Group team. Mary Ann McCoy (a first time winner) in Denver takes the Big Blue.
NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
Slight decrease this month, but still riding the August buy signal.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Auto Parts & Equipment
Strong scores in Technicals and Relative Strength categories. Group has been in consolidation for years, but poised to test 1999 highs.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Specialty Stores
Group ranking Attractive for two consecutive months. Good marks in Growth, Value, Relative Strength and VLT Momentum. Provides a solid play on improving economy.
Revisiting The "Economic Recover" Leaders
In July 2001, we produced a study examining which groups perform best coming out of a recession. Being published before the current recession was declared, few probably caught the relevance.
Scanning The Markets
So far in 2002, the stock market has focused on one thing...solid fundamentals.
Tech Watch
S&P Tech clobbered in February, but median PE ratio still rising for 6th straight month as almost half of our tech index has no earnings.
View From The North Country
Last month in this section we discussed the DALBAR study finding that mutual fund investors radically underperform. Their conclusions seemed reasonable, but the degree of underperformance was difficult to believe. We begin to examine their methodology this month.
Volatility Update
While the markets are still very volatile, the vast majority of our volatility charts show 2001 levels down somewhat from 2000.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A Bumpy Road To Recovery
- February Mutual Fund Flows
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Insider Block Measures
- NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
- Changes In The Global Industry Classification Structure
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch
- Fad Groups
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Auto Parts & Equipment
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Specialty Stores
- Scanning The Markets