Green Book December 2002
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Featured Articles
A Case Of Defendant Revenge
Several of my professional friends (including Tim, Bob, and Barry) and I, are delighted with the following anti-lawyer chain of events. The source swears this is a true and accurate reporting of the facts (but is he under oath?).
Answering Client Questions
Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from November’s client meetings in San Francisco.
Bond Market Summary
High Yield bond only fixed income area strongly appealing to us, currently.
Consumer Confidence & The NASDAQ…..Who Leads Who?
A closer look at the relationship between Consumer Confidence and the NASDAQ over the last three years.
Eight Weeks Up....Now What?
Assessing Market Risk. We see minor or minimal risk from the economy, inflation, and earnings. But, terrorist attacks and valuations could be more significant risk. Iraq is a moderate short term risk.
Insider Block Measures....Bullish
You may notice we have raised the buy and sell zone going back to 1997. The reason for this adjustment becomes pretty clear when you look at how the dollar volume of big block net selling has been trending upward since 1997.
January Effect: Now Arrives In December
Buy now to play January effect. Every year, over the last ten years, small caps have beaten the large caps in December!
New Group Coverage - Homeland Security
We will begin regular coverage of our Homeland Security Theme in next month’s Blue Book—Equity Strategies.
November Mutual Fund Flows
November’s moderately positive cash flow ends five consecutive months of net redemptions.
Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce In October/November
It has so far been a great period for the October bounce stocks (with a big boost for the market itself).
Scanning The Markets
Renaming the Paid To Play Equity Portfolio this month. New name “Select Industries” Equity Portfolio better describes the methodology which drives the construction of this all-equity portfolio.
Short Interest...Still High Despite October And November Performance
While short interest has retreated slightly, it still remains quite high, indicating there may be more upside pressure from short covering.
Steve The Technician
Last month, we had a request for technical readings on the major market indices. Being a long time card carrying member of the Market Technicians Association, I decided I should oblige.
Tech Watch
Technology stocks soar again as our broad tech index gained 26.4% in November.
The VLT Momentum Indicators…..New Buy Signals On S&P 500 & DJIA
VLT Momentum, a long term technical measure, recorded buy signals on S&P 500 and DJIA. This is a very reliable indicator.
Valuations Are Sky High…How Can The Leuthold Group Be Bullish?
An explanation herein, with the use of our trusty histograms.
Valuations…..Most Bear Markets End Around Median P/E Levels
Earnings are rebounding strongly. S&P operating earnings estimates are up 21% from 2001 to 2002, and up 23% from 2002 and 2003. Severe cost cutting may not be fully factored into analyst estimates. Look for upside earning surprise.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again. Leuthold’s New Year predictions for 2003.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Highest Since 1938
YTD instances of High Volatility (50%) is still well above the 2000-2001 levels. It is, in fact, the highest volatility reading since 1938, and the fifth highest since 1900.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Eight Weeks Up....Now What?
- Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce In October/November
- Answering Client Questions
- Consumer Confidence & The NASDAQ…..Who Leads Who?
- November Mutual Fund Flows
- Insider Block Measures....Bullish
- January Effect: Now Arrives In December
- Short Interest...Still High Despite October And November Performance
- Steve The Technician
- Valuations…..Most Bear Markets End Around Median P/E Levels
- The VLT Momentum Indicators…..New Buy Signals On S&P 500 & DJIA
- Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Highest Since 1938
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Case Of Defendant Revenge
Several of my professional friends (including Tim, Bob, and Barry) and I, are delighted with the following anti-lawyer chain of events. The source swears this is a true and accurate reporting of the facts (but is he under oath?).
Answering Client Questions
Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from November’s client meetings in San Francisco.
Bond Market Summary
High Yield bond only fixed income area strongly appealing to us, currently.
Consumer Confidence & The NASDAQ…..Who Leads Who?
A closer look at the relationship between Consumer Confidence and the NASDAQ over the last three years.
Eight Weeks Up....Now What?
Assessing Market Risk. We see minor or minimal risk from the economy, inflation, and earnings. But, terrorist attacks and valuations could be more significant risk. Iraq is a moderate short term risk.
Insider Block Measures....Bullish
You may notice we have raised the buy and sell zone going back to 1997. The reason for this adjustment becomes pretty clear when you look at how the dollar volume of big block net selling has been trending upward since 1997.
January Effect: Now Arrives In December
Buy now to play January effect. Every year, over the last ten years, small caps have beaten the large caps in December!
New Group Coverage - Homeland Security
We will begin regular coverage of our Homeland Security Theme in next month’s Blue Book—Equity Strategies.
November Mutual Fund Flows
November’s moderately positive cash flow ends five consecutive months of net redemptions.
Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce In October/November
It has so far been a great period for the October bounce stocks (with a big boost for the market itself).
Scanning The Markets
Renaming the Paid To Play Equity Portfolio this month. New name “Select Industries” Equity Portfolio better describes the methodology which drives the construction of this all-equity portfolio.
Short Interest...Still High Despite October And November Performance
While short interest has retreated slightly, it still remains quite high, indicating there may be more upside pressure from short covering.
Steve The Technician
Last month, we had a request for technical readings on the major market indices. Being a long time card carrying member of the Market Technicians Association, I decided I should oblige.
Tech Watch
Technology stocks soar again as our broad tech index gained 26.4% in November.
The VLT Momentum Indicators…..New Buy Signals On S&P 500 & DJIA
VLT Momentum, a long term technical measure, recorded buy signals on S&P 500 and DJIA. This is a very reliable indicator.
Valuations Are Sky High…How Can The Leuthold Group Be Bullish?
An explanation herein, with the use of our trusty histograms.
Valuations…..Most Bear Markets End Around Median P/E Levels
Earnings are rebounding strongly. S&P operating earnings estimates are up 21% from 2001 to 2002, and up 23% from 2002 and 2003. Severe cost cutting may not be fully factored into analyst estimates. Look for upside earning surprise.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again. Leuthold’s New Year predictions for 2003.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Highest Since 1938
YTD instances of High Volatility (50%) is still well above the 2000-2001 levels. It is, in fact, the highest volatility reading since 1938, and the fifth highest since 1900.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Eight Weeks Up....Now What?
- Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce In October/November
- Answering Client Questions
- Consumer Confidence & The NASDAQ…..Who Leads Who?
- November Mutual Fund Flows
- Insider Block Measures....Bullish
- January Effect: Now Arrives In December
- Short Interest...Still High Despite October And November Performance
- Steve The Technician
- Valuations…..Most Bear Markets End Around Median P/E Levels
- The VLT Momentum Indicators…..New Buy Signals On S&P 500 & DJIA
- Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Highest Since 1938