Green Book September 2001
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Featured Articles
August Mutual Fund Flows
YTD, $55 billion net inflow now running 73% behind last year’s $201 billion for the same period.
Bond Market Summary
Economy may already be halfway or more through recession. GDP growth still barely positive, but revisions could change that. Tech bust magnitude and breadth of Q2 profit plunge spell recession.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate the Leuthold Index methodology.
Convertible Offerings….How They Affect The Stock Market Supply/Demand Equation
A comparison of stock market net new equity supply with and without Convertibles.
Earnings Contradictions
Earnings seem to be dependent on who the source is. S&P has taken a tougher line, excluding expenses that it considers part of “normal” operations.
For The Technicians
Examining some of the impacts that decimalization and the inclusion of financial derivatives may have on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line & ARMs Index.
Insider Block Measures...Heavy Selling Volume Still Sending “Bearish” Message
Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in July and August, selling has resumed at a furious pace.
Internet Debacle (Opportunity?) Index
Several clients called, expressing an interest in our recently constructed “Internet Survivors?” theme. This is now being presented monthly in Leuthold’s Groups ~ Equity Strategies (the “Blue Book”).
New Screen: Net Free Cash Flow (NFCF)
Cash Flow analysis can offer an attractive alternative to the traditional earnings approach to “Value” judgments.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Buying Office Electronics
Upgrade to Attractive is result of broad quantitative improvement in almost all measures.
Post Labor Day…..A New Market Season
What I Worry About...The possibility of this being a secular, not a cyclical bear market. Four decades in the investment business have taught me to respect the message of the market itself.
Regional Chauvinism
Here we present two examples of regional chauvinism. Are they funny? Well, you decide.
Scanning The Markets
It’s been a very difficult market, as there has been very little prolonged group leadership. This is to be expected near market bottoms, as investors are shifting assets quickly in these uncertain times.
Tech Watch…..S&P Tech Subset Down 12% In August
Can there be a significant market rally without a tech rally? Maybe not. S&P 500 tech weight (16.9%) now slightly below our “normal” target weight of 17%.
View From The North Country
Charley Maxwell’s “Nearing The Top Of The Hubbert Curve” from August is must reading. Decimal Trading in sub-pennies? Read what Barry Small, Weeden’s CEO, has to say about this. Also, what’s so bad about the lottery?
Volatility Update
A decrease in occurrences of 2% days for the S&P 500 this year. Of the 169 trading days so far this year, only 17 have been moves in excess of 2% (10% of the time). There were no 2% moves in August.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Post Labor Day…..A New Market Season
- Earnings Contradictions
- August Mutual Fund Flows
- Convertible Offerings….How They Affect The Stock Market Supply/Demand Equation
- Insider Block Measures...Heavy Selling Volume Still Sending “Bearish” Message
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- For The Technicians
- Internet Debacle (Opportunity?) Index
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch…..S&P Tech Subset Down 12% In August
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Buying Office Electronics
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
August Mutual Fund Flows
YTD, $55 billion net inflow now running 73% behind last year’s $201 billion for the same period.
Bond Market Summary
Economy may already be halfway or more through recession. GDP growth still barely positive, but revisions could change that. Tech bust magnitude and breadth of Q2 profit plunge spell recession.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate the Leuthold Index methodology.
Convertible Offerings….How They Affect The Stock Market Supply/Demand Equation
A comparison of stock market net new equity supply with and without Convertibles.
Earnings Contradictions
Earnings seem to be dependent on who the source is. S&P has taken a tougher line, excluding expenses that it considers part of “normal” operations.
For The Technicians
Examining some of the impacts that decimalization and the inclusion of financial derivatives may have on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line & ARMs Index.
Insider Block Measures...Heavy Selling Volume Still Sending “Bearish” Message
Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in July and August, selling has resumed at a furious pace.
Internet Debacle (Opportunity?) Index
Several clients called, expressing an interest in our recently constructed “Internet Survivors?” theme. This is now being presented monthly in Leuthold’s Groups ~ Equity Strategies (the “Blue Book”).
New Screen: Net Free Cash Flow (NFCF)
Cash Flow analysis can offer an attractive alternative to the traditional earnings approach to “Value” judgments.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Buying Office Electronics
Upgrade to Attractive is result of broad quantitative improvement in almost all measures.
Post Labor Day…..A New Market Season
What I Worry About...The possibility of this being a secular, not a cyclical bear market. Four decades in the investment business have taught me to respect the message of the market itself.
Regional Chauvinism
Here we present two examples of regional chauvinism. Are they funny? Well, you decide.
Scanning The Markets
It’s been a very difficult market, as there has been very little prolonged group leadership. This is to be expected near market bottoms, as investors are shifting assets quickly in these uncertain times.
Tech Watch…..S&P Tech Subset Down 12% In August
Can there be a significant market rally without a tech rally? Maybe not. S&P 500 tech weight (16.9%) now slightly below our “normal” target weight of 17%.
View From The North Country
Charley Maxwell’s “Nearing The Top Of The Hubbert Curve” from August is must reading. Decimal Trading in sub-pennies? Read what Barry Small, Weeden’s CEO, has to say about this. Also, what’s so bad about the lottery?
Volatility Update
A decrease in occurrences of 2% days for the S&P 500 this year. Of the 169 trading days so far this year, only 17 have been moves in excess of 2% (10% of the time). There were no 2% moves in August.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Post Labor Day…..A New Market Season
- Earnings Contradictions
- August Mutual Fund Flows
- Convertible Offerings….How They Affect The Stock Market Supply/Demand Equation
- Insider Block Measures...Heavy Selling Volume Still Sending “Bearish” Message
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- For The Technicians
- Internet Debacle (Opportunity?) Index
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch…..S&P Tech Subset Down 12% In August
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Buying Office Electronics
- Scanning The Markets