Green Book November 2001
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Featured Articles
After The Rebound: Increased Caution
Market shrugged off bad news; but rally from the lows is almost a text book example of a bear market rally. Plus, Steve's current outlook regarding the Economy, Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates.
Bond Market Summary
Expect further Fed cuts in short rates, but this could do more harm than good.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Groups For Shooters…..Those Who “Play” Very Aggressively
For those who “play” very aggressively, two groups that are experiencing dramatic performance swings: Security Companies and BioDefense.
Growth Versus Value—Transition To Growth Leadership?
The weight of the evidence points toward a transition from value leadership to growth, with small caps leading the way. But, getting the timing right is no easy matter.
Insider Block Measures...Selling Volume Drying Up
The latest 10-week reading declined a big 48% from the previous month end, and has fallen to the lowest level of insider net selling since late-1998.
Joke of the Month
Two runners-up and a winner from John Holland in Mahwah, New Jersey. All tasteless.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Now Adding Pharmaceuticals
GS Score improved to Attractive on strength from Growth, Technical, Judgmental, and Insider categories.
October Mutual Fund Flows & September’s “Record” Net Redemptions In Perspective
“Record” outflow only 10th highest as a percent of Equity Fund assets. But, as a percent of stock market capitalization, September net outflow was about on par with October 1987.
Playing The Bounce Update
The Leuthold Group is not currently playing the bounce, but may consider doing so in December.
Post Attack Market Leadership
Areas hardest hit subsequent to the Attack typically rebounded the most. Sector and Industry Group leaders and laggers examined herein, from the lows of 9/21 and from before the Attack.
Scanning The Markets
The NASDAQ posted a strong 12.8% gain in October, and also leads the pack from the September 21st low with an 18.8% gain.
Tech Watch…..S&P Tech Subset Soared 16% In October
From a much lower base, at least some tech stocks could once again become earnings momentum plays.
View From The North Country
Fiscal responsibility goes out the window in Washington. Also, The Bombastic Earnings Charade: Why are companies allowed to make up their own accounting rules?
Volatility Update
While the markets are however still very volatile, it seems that the volatility appears to be slowing from the amazing levels recorded in 2000.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- After The Rebound: Increased Caution
- Post Attack Market Leadership
- Growth Versus Value—Transition To Growth Leadership?
- October Mutual Fund Flows & September’s “Record” Net Redemptions In Perspective
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Insider Block Measures...Selling Volume Drying Up
- Volatility Update
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch…..S&P Tech Subset Soared 16% In October
- Groups For Shooters…..Those Who “Play” Very Aggressively
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Now Adding Pharmaceuticals
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
After The Rebound: Increased Caution
Market shrugged off bad news; but rally from the lows is almost a text book example of a bear market rally. Plus, Steve's current outlook regarding the Economy, Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates.
Bond Market Summary
Expect further Fed cuts in short rates, but this could do more harm than good.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Groups For Shooters…..Those Who “Play” Very Aggressively
For those who “play” very aggressively, two groups that are experiencing dramatic performance swings: Security Companies and BioDefense.
Growth Versus Value—Transition To Growth Leadership?
The weight of the evidence points toward a transition from value leadership to growth, with small caps leading the way. But, getting the timing right is no easy matter.
Insider Block Measures...Selling Volume Drying Up
The latest 10-week reading declined a big 48% from the previous month end, and has fallen to the lowest level of insider net selling since late-1998.
Joke of the Month
Two runners-up and a winner from John Holland in Mahwah, New Jersey. All tasteless.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Now Adding Pharmaceuticals
GS Score improved to Attractive on strength from Growth, Technical, Judgmental, and Insider categories.
October Mutual Fund Flows & September’s “Record” Net Redemptions In Perspective
“Record” outflow only 10th highest as a percent of Equity Fund assets. But, as a percent of stock market capitalization, September net outflow was about on par with October 1987.
Playing The Bounce Update
The Leuthold Group is not currently playing the bounce, but may consider doing so in December.
Post Attack Market Leadership
Areas hardest hit subsequent to the Attack typically rebounded the most. Sector and Industry Group leaders and laggers examined herein, from the lows of 9/21 and from before the Attack.
Scanning The Markets
The NASDAQ posted a strong 12.8% gain in October, and also leads the pack from the September 21st low with an 18.8% gain.
Tech Watch…..S&P Tech Subset Soared 16% In October
From a much lower base, at least some tech stocks could once again become earnings momentum plays.
View From The North Country
Fiscal responsibility goes out the window in Washington. Also, The Bombastic Earnings Charade: Why are companies allowed to make up their own accounting rules?
Volatility Update
While the markets are however still very volatile, it seems that the volatility appears to be slowing from the amazing levels recorded in 2000.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- After The Rebound: Increased Caution
- Post Attack Market Leadership
- Growth Versus Value—Transition To Growth Leadership?
- October Mutual Fund Flows & September’s “Record” Net Redemptions In Perspective
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Insider Block Measures...Selling Volume Drying Up
- Volatility Update
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch…..S&P Tech Subset Soared 16% In October
- Groups For Shooters…..Those Who “Play” Very Aggressively
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Now Adding Pharmaceuticals
- Scanning The Markets