Green Book May 2001
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Featured Articles
April Mutual Fund Flows: Net Inflow Returns In April
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $15 billion is estimated for April. This reverses the record level $15.7 billion monthly outflow in March.
Bond Market Summary
Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Earnings Down, Market Up
Some may disagree, but a number of classic bull market transition elements are in place. Also, falling Earnings are not reason to stay away from the stock market. Superior performance comes in the years earnings are falling the most.
Index Sector Weights and Comparisons With Sales and Earnings
New series compares index industry sector weights with sales and earnings contributions.
Insider Block Measures...Insiders Not Buying This Dip
Despite stock price corrections in the last year, significant net selling continues among the “smart money”.
Internet Debacle Index
If we get another performance month like April, we may again have to re-christen this as The Internet Opportunity Index.
Joke of the Month
Paula Diemer at Leuthold Weeden wins her second Blue Ribbon of the year after going ribbonless for nine years.
Looking At Stock Market Risk and Analyzing Past Bear Markets
A look back at 20 prior bear markets (1900 to date) to examine the question, “Just how long does it take to recover from a bear market?”
Market Breadth Update
Based on the weekly Advance/Decline line, market breadth has improved considerably. This is evidence of a much stronger underlying stock market than the S&P 500 and other measures might indicate.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Semiconductor Equipment
This highly cyclical group should benefit earlier than the chipmakers in a recovery.
Scanning The Markets
In April, the technology stocks came roaring back to life. Of the 20 best performing groups during the month, 14 were technology related.
Tech Watch…..Strong Bounce In April
Tech stocks came roaring back in April (Info Tech sector up 22%), but don’t expect another parabolic rise!
View From The North Country
I am positive about today’s stock market, but there are some considerations that could cause my optimism to be premature. A bubble/bust comparison between the great gold and silver bubble of 1979-1980 versus the 1998-present Internet sector. Not all single digit stocks should be shunned.
Volatility Update...No Significant Signs Of Slowing Volatility Yet
So far in 2001, 62% of trading days qualify as Extreme Volatility compared to the historical norm of 4% since 1971.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Earnings Down, Market Up
- Market Breadth Update
- Volatility Update...No Significant Signs Of Slowing Volatility Yet
- April Mutual Fund Flows: Net Inflow Returns In April
- Insider Block Measures...Insiders Not Buying This Dip
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Index Sector Weights and Comparisons With Sales and Earnings
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch…..Strong Bounce In April
- Internet Debacle Index
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Semiconductor Equipment
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
April Mutual Fund Flows: Net Inflow Returns In April
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $15 billion is estimated for April. This reverses the record level $15.7 billion monthly outflow in March.
Bond Market Summary
Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Earnings Down, Market Up
Some may disagree, but a number of classic bull market transition elements are in place. Also, falling Earnings are not reason to stay away from the stock market. Superior performance comes in the years earnings are falling the most.
Index Sector Weights and Comparisons With Sales and Earnings
New series compares index industry sector weights with sales and earnings contributions.
Insider Block Measures...Insiders Not Buying This Dip
Despite stock price corrections in the last year, significant net selling continues among the “smart money”.
Internet Debacle Index
If we get another performance month like April, we may again have to re-christen this as The Internet Opportunity Index.
Joke of the Month
Paula Diemer at Leuthold Weeden wins her second Blue Ribbon of the year after going ribbonless for nine years.
Looking At Stock Market Risk and Analyzing Past Bear Markets
A look back at 20 prior bear markets (1900 to date) to examine the question, “Just how long does it take to recover from a bear market?”
Market Breadth Update
Based on the weekly Advance/Decline line, market breadth has improved considerably. This is evidence of a much stronger underlying stock market than the S&P 500 and other measures might indicate.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Semiconductor Equipment
This highly cyclical group should benefit earlier than the chipmakers in a recovery.
Scanning The Markets
In April, the technology stocks came roaring back to life. Of the 20 best performing groups during the month, 14 were technology related.
Tech Watch…..Strong Bounce In April
Tech stocks came roaring back in April (Info Tech sector up 22%), but don’t expect another parabolic rise!
View From The North Country
I am positive about today’s stock market, but there are some considerations that could cause my optimism to be premature. A bubble/bust comparison between the great gold and silver bubble of 1979-1980 versus the 1998-present Internet sector. Not all single digit stocks should be shunned.
Volatility Update...No Significant Signs Of Slowing Volatility Yet
So far in 2001, 62% of trading days qualify as Extreme Volatility compared to the historical norm of 4% since 1971.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Earnings Down, Market Up
- Market Breadth Update
- Volatility Update...No Significant Signs Of Slowing Volatility Yet
- April Mutual Fund Flows: Net Inflow Returns In April
- Insider Block Measures...Insiders Not Buying This Dip
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Index Sector Weights and Comparisons With Sales and Earnings
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch…..Strong Bounce In April
- Internet Debacle Index
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Semiconductor Equipment
- Scanning The Markets