Green Book July 2001
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Featured Articles
"The Pause That Refreshes...."
Leadership Expectations: Small and Mid Caps (not Large Caps); Energy Rebound; Biotech and Broad Health Care; some Technology subsets. How long for the NASDAQ to recover to previous highs? Assuming an 11% annual growth rate, the “NAZ” will not recoup until September 2009.
"Value" Performance Superiority May Diminish Or Even End Soon
Our work indicates Small and Mid Cap growth stock action is heating up. It is entirely possible that a transition to Small and Mid Cap growth leadership is already in the works.
Bond Market Summary
Economy may already be halfway through a recession, but expect economic uptick by early 2002. Fed near end of easing.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Dreams & Nightmares: Mid Year Update
Mid-year update how an investor would have done if they had been fortunate enough to invest in the 20 best performing industry groups (and visa versa).
Insider Block Measures...Brief Selling Respite In Early June, But Then Heavy Selling Resumes
Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in recent weeks it appears that heavy selling has resumed once again.
Internet Debacle (Opportunity?) Index
These internet stocks soared during the insanity phase and recently suffered through the debacle. It may now be time to start looking for opportunities here.
June Mutual Fund Flows
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $14 billion is estimated for June. The bear market which began roughly 15 months ago has caused investors to become much more cautious toward equities this year, as evidenced by the depressed YTD net inflow levels going into U.S. focus equity funds.
Performance From A Long Term Perspective
Don’t let the roller-coaster ride of the short term lead to abandonment of sound, long-term investment strategies. Despite 2000-2001 declines, stock market performance over the last ten years is still beating long-term, median equity returns.
Scanning The Markets
Small cap stocks were clearly superior in June, with the Russell 2000 rising 3.3% and the S&P Small Cap Index up 3.6%.
Tech Watch…..Tech Turns Up In Late June
After weathering a big correction in March and early April, Tech stocks have recently acted pretty well considering the dismal earnings and worsening outlook.
The “Official” Leuthold Method For Talking Your Way Out Of A Speeding Ticket
We have not actually tried it yet. If anyone does, let us know how it works.
View From The North Country
The European view of the world, by guest “View” editor, Jim Bianco.
Volatility Update...Significant Slowdown In June
In June, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 volatility tapered off considerably.
What About the Recession and the Awful Earnings?
The NBER (U.S. “recession judge”) often fails to label recessions until after they are over. Sector Earnings in 2001: Estimate operating earnings for the cap weighted measures will be down 15%, maybe 20%. Expect the economy will start to stabilize by year-end, and improve in early 2002.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- "The Pause That Refreshes...."
- What About the Recession and the Awful Earnings?
- "Value" Performance Superiority May Diminish Or Even End Soon
- Dreams & Nightmares: Mid Year Update
- June Mutual Fund Flows
- Volatility Update...Significant Slowdown In June
- Insider Block Measures...Brief Selling Respite In Early June, But Then Heavy Selling Resumes
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
"The Pause That Refreshes...."
Leadership Expectations: Small and Mid Caps (not Large Caps); Energy Rebound; Biotech and Broad Health Care; some Technology subsets. How long for the NASDAQ to recover to previous highs? Assuming an 11% annual growth rate, the “NAZ” will not recoup until September 2009.
"Value" Performance Superiority May Diminish Or Even End Soon
Our work indicates Small and Mid Cap growth stock action is heating up. It is entirely possible that a transition to Small and Mid Cap growth leadership is already in the works.
Bond Market Summary
Economy may already be halfway through a recession, but expect economic uptick by early 2002. Fed near end of easing.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Dreams & Nightmares: Mid Year Update
Mid-year update how an investor would have done if they had been fortunate enough to invest in the 20 best performing industry groups (and visa versa).
Insider Block Measures...Brief Selling Respite In Early June, But Then Heavy Selling Resumes
Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in recent weeks it appears that heavy selling has resumed once again.
Internet Debacle (Opportunity?) Index
These internet stocks soared during the insanity phase and recently suffered through the debacle. It may now be time to start looking for opportunities here.
June Mutual Fund Flows
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $14 billion is estimated for June. The bear market which began roughly 15 months ago has caused investors to become much more cautious toward equities this year, as evidenced by the depressed YTD net inflow levels going into U.S. focus equity funds.
Performance From A Long Term Perspective
Don’t let the roller-coaster ride of the short term lead to abandonment of sound, long-term investment strategies. Despite 2000-2001 declines, stock market performance over the last ten years is still beating long-term, median equity returns.
Scanning The Markets
Small cap stocks were clearly superior in June, with the Russell 2000 rising 3.3% and the S&P Small Cap Index up 3.6%.
Tech Watch…..Tech Turns Up In Late June
After weathering a big correction in March and early April, Tech stocks have recently acted pretty well considering the dismal earnings and worsening outlook.
The “Official” Leuthold Method For Talking Your Way Out Of A Speeding Ticket
We have not actually tried it yet. If anyone does, let us know how it works.
View From The North Country
The European view of the world, by guest “View” editor, Jim Bianco.
Volatility Update...Significant Slowdown In June
In June, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 volatility tapered off considerably.
What About the Recession and the Awful Earnings?
The NBER (U.S. “recession judge”) often fails to label recessions until after they are over. Sector Earnings in 2001: Estimate operating earnings for the cap weighted measures will be down 15%, maybe 20%. Expect the economy will start to stabilize by year-end, and improve in early 2002.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- "The Pause That Refreshes...."
- What About the Recession and the Awful Earnings?
- "Value" Performance Superiority May Diminish Or Even End Soon
- Dreams & Nightmares: Mid Year Update
- June Mutual Fund Flows
- Volatility Update...Significant Slowdown In June
- Insider Block Measures...Brief Selling Respite In Early June, But Then Heavy Selling Resumes
- Capitalization Tier Meausres