Green Book January 2001
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Featured Articles
2000 Dreams and Nightmares
A look at “what might have been”.
2001: A Wild Beginning
Two trading days into 2001, and the first day delivered the second-worst-ever, first day trading loss in the S&P 500 (the worst-ever being the first day of 1932!). Day Two: A surprise, 50 basis point Fed rate cut, brought an upside explosion.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Our annual review of our significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations…..the good and the bad. Also, an evaluation of 2000 performance: Paid To Play equity portfolio, and asset allocation portfolios.
Bond Market Summary
U.S economy weakening faster than expected: Global economy also slowing. Increasing odds of a hard landing in 2001.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
December Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Continues To Cool
Managers have been timid about investing in the market, especially since the end of Q1, with only 56% of net new cash flow actually being invested in stocks.
Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues, And Is Likely To Continue
Big block net sells hit a record $70 billion for 2000. This is 84% more than the previous record year (1999’s $38 billion).
Internet Insanity Index
The Internet Insanity Index continued to lose ground in December, However, the 4.6% loss was not nearly as devastating as the 36% loss recorded in November.
Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Inside The S&P 500
Poor performance by Large cap technology issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers in 2000.
Meeting the Futures In-Laws
Barb Nielsen at The Leuthold Group gets this month’s Blue Ribbon. Some readers may have heard this joke before. It may indeed be a classic, but it is new as far as the competition judge is concerned.
Playing The Bounce Update
We decided to Play The Bounce during the final few days of December. Window dressing and tax loss selling had continued, especially in the technology sector, creating buying opportunities.
S&P Technology Weighting Falling
S&P Technology Weighting has fallen to about 21.9% from nearly 35% in February. Expect it to fall to 20% or below (recession?) within the next year.
Scanning The Markets
Investors are likely happy to see 2000 come to an end. While much of the focus was on the crushing defeat of Tech stocks last year, there were many pockets of strength.
The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 2000
In 2000, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
Volatility Update
The current volatility in the NASDAQ is unprecedented over the 30 year life of this index.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- 2001: A Wild Beginning
- Playing The Bounce Update
- Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Inside The S&P 500
- 2000 Dreams and Nightmares
- December Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Continues To Cool
- Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues, And Is Likely To Continue
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 2000
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
2000 Dreams and Nightmares
A look at “what might have been”.
2001: A Wild Beginning
Two trading days into 2001, and the first day delivered the second-worst-ever, first day trading loss in the S&P 500 (the worst-ever being the first day of 1932!). Day Two: A surprise, 50 basis point Fed rate cut, brought an upside explosion.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Our annual review of our significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations…..the good and the bad. Also, an evaluation of 2000 performance: Paid To Play equity portfolio, and asset allocation portfolios.
Bond Market Summary
U.S economy weakening faster than expected: Global economy also slowing. Increasing odds of a hard landing in 2001.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
December Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Continues To Cool
Managers have been timid about investing in the market, especially since the end of Q1, with only 56% of net new cash flow actually being invested in stocks.
Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues, And Is Likely To Continue
Big block net sells hit a record $70 billion for 2000. This is 84% more than the previous record year (1999’s $38 billion).
Internet Insanity Index
The Internet Insanity Index continued to lose ground in December, However, the 4.6% loss was not nearly as devastating as the 36% loss recorded in November.
Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Inside The S&P 500
Poor performance by Large cap technology issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers in 2000.
Meeting the Futures In-Laws
Barb Nielsen at The Leuthold Group gets this month’s Blue Ribbon. Some readers may have heard this joke before. It may indeed be a classic, but it is new as far as the competition judge is concerned.
Playing The Bounce Update
We decided to Play The Bounce during the final few days of December. Window dressing and tax loss selling had continued, especially in the technology sector, creating buying opportunities.
S&P Technology Weighting Falling
S&P Technology Weighting has fallen to about 21.9% from nearly 35% in February. Expect it to fall to 20% or below (recession?) within the next year.
Scanning The Markets
Investors are likely happy to see 2000 come to an end. While much of the focus was on the crushing defeat of Tech stocks last year, there were many pockets of strength.
The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 2000
In 2000, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
Volatility Update
The current volatility in the NASDAQ is unprecedented over the 30 year life of this index.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- 2001: A Wild Beginning
- Playing The Bounce Update
- Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Inside The S&P 500
- 2000 Dreams and Nightmares
- December Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Continues To Cool
- Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues, And Is Likely To Continue
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 2000