Green Book February 2001
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Featured Articles
2001.....An Excellent Bounce Year
Our strategy was to buy ten “quality” Large/Mid Cap names down at least 50% from their 2000 highs. A list of our ten purchases (equally weighted), as well as subsequent realized gains.
A Penny For Your Thoughts
As discussed earlier in this section, NYSE stocks are now trading in penny increments. Wall Street’s buy and sell side institutional traders are mad as hell and have already developed new terminology to express their disgust.
A Weak Economy With A Strong Stock Market?
Earnings are declining and economy has slowed. Just why are we buying stocks?
Bond Market Summary
Strong mutual fund inflows in January helped propel High Yield bond returns up 7% for the month. Yield spreads narrowed significantly relative to Quality Corporates but remain very attractive.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Have Increased Equity Exposure
Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.
Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues
The latest 10-week reading fell 28% from previous week, but remains above historical selling extremes.
Internet Insanity Index
The Internet Insanity Index had a big bounce in January. These stocks were severely beaten down and a bounce was expected.
January Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Surges In January
January’s $30 billion net inflow the strongest January on record (beating January 2000).
New Select Industries Group Holding: Selling Drugs To Shop Department Stores
Upgrade to Attractive last month put Department Stores on our radar, and February’s move into the GS “top ten” confirms the quantitative strength of this group. Improving technicals, stronger than expected January sales and increasing probability of soft landing indicating a promising outlook for this group.
S&P 500 And NASDAQ Volatility…..New Year Opens With Continued Extreme Volatility
New year opens with continued high volatility. 62% of the NASDAQ trading days in January moved up or down 1% or more.
Scanning The Markets
Quite a reversal of fortune in January, compared to last year. Of the 20 best performers in January, 13 groups are still down over the last twelve months.
Tech Stocks: Valuation Considerations Now
The underlying decline in valuations and tech stock weightings in the cap weighted market indices probably has further to go in 2001.
The Big Shrink…Cash Acquisitions Activity Heats Up In January
In 2000, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before. Now it looks as though this trend is continuing this year.
View From The North Country
Will Wall Street See More “Sells”? Expect some changes, but most important development may be a rise in gutsy, independent institutional research. Also, decimalization: an unanticipated bonanza for NYSE specialists.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Have Increased Equity Exposure
- 2001.....An Excellent Bounce Year
- January Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Surges In January
- The Big Shrink…Cash Acquisitions Activity Heats Up In January
- Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues
- S&P 500 And NASDAQ Volatility…..New Year Opens With Continued Extreme Volatility
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Stocks: Valuation Considerations Now
- Internet Insanity Index
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Selling Drugs To Shop Department Stores
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
2001.....An Excellent Bounce Year
Our strategy was to buy ten “quality” Large/Mid Cap names down at least 50% from their 2000 highs. A list of our ten purchases (equally weighted), as well as subsequent realized gains.
A Penny For Your Thoughts
As discussed earlier in this section, NYSE stocks are now trading in penny increments. Wall Street’s buy and sell side institutional traders are mad as hell and have already developed new terminology to express their disgust.
A Weak Economy With A Strong Stock Market?
Earnings are declining and economy has slowed. Just why are we buying stocks?
Bond Market Summary
Strong mutual fund inflows in January helped propel High Yield bond returns up 7% for the month. Yield spreads narrowed significantly relative to Quality Corporates but remain very attractive.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Have Increased Equity Exposure
Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.
Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues
The latest 10-week reading fell 28% from previous week, but remains above historical selling extremes.
Internet Insanity Index
The Internet Insanity Index had a big bounce in January. These stocks were severely beaten down and a bounce was expected.
January Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Surges In January
January’s $30 billion net inflow the strongest January on record (beating January 2000).
New Select Industries Group Holding: Selling Drugs To Shop Department Stores
Upgrade to Attractive last month put Department Stores on our radar, and February’s move into the GS “top ten” confirms the quantitative strength of this group. Improving technicals, stronger than expected January sales and increasing probability of soft landing indicating a promising outlook for this group.
S&P 500 And NASDAQ Volatility…..New Year Opens With Continued Extreme Volatility
New year opens with continued high volatility. 62% of the NASDAQ trading days in January moved up or down 1% or more.
Scanning The Markets
Quite a reversal of fortune in January, compared to last year. Of the 20 best performers in January, 13 groups are still down over the last twelve months.
Tech Stocks: Valuation Considerations Now
The underlying decline in valuations and tech stock weightings in the cap weighted market indices probably has further to go in 2001.
The Big Shrink…Cash Acquisitions Activity Heats Up In January
In 2000, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before. Now it looks as though this trend is continuing this year.
View From The North Country
Will Wall Street See More “Sells”? Expect some changes, but most important development may be a rise in gutsy, independent institutional research. Also, decimalization: an unanticipated bonanza for NYSE specialists.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Have Increased Equity Exposure
- 2001.....An Excellent Bounce Year
- January Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Surges In January
- The Big Shrink…Cash Acquisitions Activity Heats Up In January
- Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues
- S&P 500 And NASDAQ Volatility…..New Year Opens With Continued Extreme Volatility
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Stocks: Valuation Considerations Now
- Internet Insanity Index
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Selling Drugs To Shop Department Stores
- Scanning The Markets