Green Book January 2000
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Featured Articles
15 Year S&P 500 Performance In Perspective
Once again, the stock market has soared to another year of strong performance. Returns of 20%-30% are becoming the norm.
1999 Dreams and Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
One would not expect to generate better than average returns by chasing last year’s big winners. But this simplistic approach did produce better than average results in 1999, as it usually has over the last eleven years.
1999 Performance: Big Caps Versus Small Caps
Small cap performance actually nosed out Big Cap +19.6 for Russell 2000 and +19.5% for S&P 500 (price only). Who would have believed it?
A December To Remember
Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market momentum built.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Self-examination can be good for the soul if not the ego. So each January, time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations appearing in our publications. We include both the good...and the bad.
Bond Market Summary
Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening likely.
Insider Block Measures...Record Selling In 1999 By Insiders
Recent high level of aggregate selling indicating corporate insiders see a rough road ahead for the stock market.
Internet Insanity Index: Performance Dichotomy
The Leuthold Internet Insanity Index gained over 11% during the month of December, and reached a new all-time high on December 13.
Joke of the Month
Good joke flow in December. It seems that when the stock market soars the joke flow accelerates.
Mutual Fund Flows...1999 Year End Recap
Estimated totals for 1999 cash flows for the major fund categories and a comparison to previous years to illustrate trends.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Health Care Facilities
Group had really ugly 1999, now rated attractive and there are some real values here.
New Select Industries Group Holding: IT Consulting & Services
Group relative strength recently broke out on the upside.
Playing The Bounce Update
Small cap bounce stocks were winners, November—December performance +25.6%.
Scanning The Markets
Q4 performance push sent NASDAQ to record year. Broad sector Information Technology surged 221% in 1999.
The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 1999
In 1999, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before.
Tracking Shifts In Market Capitalization Leadership
If small caps can move back above the October 1999 level in the coming months, this would certainly be encouraging for small cap fans and may even signal a change in the trend to confirm that leadership is indeed moving to the small cap arena.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s 2000 predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
Volatility Update…Year End Summary
While the 1930s were more severely volatile for the S&P, 1999 ranks second only to the 1974 record (45.1%) in the post WWII era.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A December To Remember
- 1999 Performance: Big Caps Versus Small Caps
- Tracking Shifts In Market Capitalization Leadership
- Playing The Bounce Update
- 1999 Dreams and Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
- Mutual Fund Flows...1999 Year End Recap
- The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 1999
- Insider Block Measures...Record Selling In 1999 By Insiders
- Volatility Update…Year End Summary
- 15 Year S&P 500 Performance In Perspective
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Internet Insanity Index: Performance Dichotomy
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Health Care Facilities
- New Select Industries Group Holding: IT Consulting & Services
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
15 Year S&P 500 Performance In Perspective
Once again, the stock market has soared to another year of strong performance. Returns of 20%-30% are becoming the norm.
1999 Dreams and Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
One would not expect to generate better than average returns by chasing last year’s big winners. But this simplistic approach did produce better than average results in 1999, as it usually has over the last eleven years.
1999 Performance: Big Caps Versus Small Caps
Small cap performance actually nosed out Big Cap +19.6 for Russell 2000 and +19.5% for S&P 500 (price only). Who would have believed it?
A December To Remember
Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market momentum built.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Self-examination can be good for the soul if not the ego. So each January, time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations appearing in our publications. We include both the good...and the bad.
Bond Market Summary
Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening likely.
Insider Block Measures...Record Selling In 1999 By Insiders
Recent high level of aggregate selling indicating corporate insiders see a rough road ahead for the stock market.
Internet Insanity Index: Performance Dichotomy
The Leuthold Internet Insanity Index gained over 11% during the month of December, and reached a new all-time high on December 13.
Joke of the Month
Good joke flow in December. It seems that when the stock market soars the joke flow accelerates.
Mutual Fund Flows...1999 Year End Recap
Estimated totals for 1999 cash flows for the major fund categories and a comparison to previous years to illustrate trends.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Health Care Facilities
Group had really ugly 1999, now rated attractive and there are some real values here.
New Select Industries Group Holding: IT Consulting & Services
Group relative strength recently broke out on the upside.
Playing The Bounce Update
Small cap bounce stocks were winners, November—December performance +25.6%.
Scanning The Markets
Q4 performance push sent NASDAQ to record year. Broad sector Information Technology surged 221% in 1999.
The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 1999
In 1999, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before.
Tracking Shifts In Market Capitalization Leadership
If small caps can move back above the October 1999 level in the coming months, this would certainly be encouraging for small cap fans and may even signal a change in the trend to confirm that leadership is indeed moving to the small cap arena.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s 2000 predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
Volatility Update…Year End Summary
While the 1930s were more severely volatile for the S&P, 1999 ranks second only to the 1974 record (45.1%) in the post WWII era.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A December To Remember
- 1999 Performance: Big Caps Versus Small Caps
- Tracking Shifts In Market Capitalization Leadership
- Playing The Bounce Update
- 1999 Dreams and Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
- Mutual Fund Flows...1999 Year End Recap
- The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 1999
- Insider Block Measures...Record Selling In 1999 By Insiders
- Volatility Update…Year End Summary
- 15 Year S&P 500 Performance In Perspective
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Internet Insanity Index: Performance Dichotomy
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Health Care Facilities
- New Select Industries Group Holding: IT Consulting & Services
- Scanning The Markets