Green Book December 2000
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect some energy related flair-ups.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Insider Block Measures...Market Smarting As Smart Money Selling Continues
The latest 10-week reading remains above historical selling extremes.
Internet Insanity Index
The Internet Insanity Index was hammered with a 36% loss in November. Some of these companies will likely survive, but many will expire. We advise avoiding the group.
Jokes Of The Month
As noted here last issue, in the spirit of the holidays, I was planning to award three Blue Ribbons this month. But now, I have decided to award an unprecedented fourth Blue Ribbon.
New Group Holding…..New Minor Position In Environmental Services
Group has been rated Attractive since March 2000, but December GS Score elevated it to the top five.
New Leuthold Group Coverage
Seven new groups and themes added to our Blue Book this month.
November Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Cools In A Tumultuous Month
In a month with the S&P 500 down 8% and the NASDAQ down 23%, it is amazing that there weren’t net redemptions for the month.
Playing The Bounce Update
Typical technology/communications stocks down about 40% to 50% YTD. Bounce list is dominated by these stocks.
Scanning The Markets
It was not too hard for our equity groups to outperform during November, as 83 of our 132 equity groups (63%) outperformed the S&P 500, with 41 of these turning in flat or positive returns (31% of all groups). Compared to the NASDAQ, 113 of the groups (86%) performed better.
Super Bowl Internet Advertisers...Where Are They Now?
On average, the public companies that advertised had an average loss of 72.4% through November (calculated from 1/28/00).
Technology: What’s The Downside?
November was Tech nightmare but we think about two-thirds of decline is behind us.
Undervalued & Unloved Investing
Even with dry spells, the long term performance record of this screen has been excellent, outperforming the S&P 500 by 1195% since 1975.
View From The North Country
“What? You’re buying MORE Junk Bonds?!” “Regulation FD” could ultimately improve the depth and quality of analyst research, turning the focus back to more relevant, longer term outlooks. “Sell Side” Stock Research: The reasons why we no longer use it.
Volatility Update
S&P 500 volatility so far in 2000 has been exceptionally high, only seven of the other 100 years have been more volatile. The current volatility in the NASDAQ is unprecedented over the 30 year life of this index.
When the Bears Have Thanksgiving, Will the Bulls Have Christmas?
November market devastation not the result of Florida Follies….Tech sector disappointments and lowered prospects are most of it. The Good News: Two-thirds of the current bear market may now be history. Expect counter trend rally soon, but third and final “Bear” leg likely in Q1, 2001.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- When the Bears Have Thanksgiving, Will the Bulls Have Christmas?
- Undervalued & Unloved Investing
- November Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Cools In A Tumultuous Month
- Insider Block Measures...Market Smarting As Smart Money Selling Continues
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Super Bowl Internet Advertisers...Where Are They Now?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Technology: What’s The Downside?
- New Leuthold Group Coverage
- Internet Insanity Index
- New Group Holding…..New Minor Position In Environmental Services
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect some energy related flair-ups.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Insider Block Measures...Market Smarting As Smart Money Selling Continues
The latest 10-week reading remains above historical selling extremes.
Internet Insanity Index
The Internet Insanity Index was hammered with a 36% loss in November. Some of these companies will likely survive, but many will expire. We advise avoiding the group.
Jokes Of The Month
As noted here last issue, in the spirit of the holidays, I was planning to award three Blue Ribbons this month. But now, I have decided to award an unprecedented fourth Blue Ribbon.
New Group Holding…..New Minor Position In Environmental Services
Group has been rated Attractive since March 2000, but December GS Score elevated it to the top five.
New Leuthold Group Coverage
Seven new groups and themes added to our Blue Book this month.
November Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Cools In A Tumultuous Month
In a month with the S&P 500 down 8% and the NASDAQ down 23%, it is amazing that there weren’t net redemptions for the month.
Playing The Bounce Update
Typical technology/communications stocks down about 40% to 50% YTD. Bounce list is dominated by these stocks.
Scanning The Markets
It was not too hard for our equity groups to outperform during November, as 83 of our 132 equity groups (63%) outperformed the S&P 500, with 41 of these turning in flat or positive returns (31% of all groups). Compared to the NASDAQ, 113 of the groups (86%) performed better.
Super Bowl Internet Advertisers...Where Are They Now?
On average, the public companies that advertised had an average loss of 72.4% through November (calculated from 1/28/00).
Technology: What’s The Downside?
November was Tech nightmare but we think about two-thirds of decline is behind us.
Undervalued & Unloved Investing
Even with dry spells, the long term performance record of this screen has been excellent, outperforming the S&P 500 by 1195% since 1975.
View From The North Country
“What? You’re buying MORE Junk Bonds?!” “Regulation FD” could ultimately improve the depth and quality of analyst research, turning the focus back to more relevant, longer term outlooks. “Sell Side” Stock Research: The reasons why we no longer use it.
Volatility Update
S&P 500 volatility so far in 2000 has been exceptionally high, only seven of the other 100 years have been more volatile. The current volatility in the NASDAQ is unprecedented over the 30 year life of this index.
When the Bears Have Thanksgiving, Will the Bulls Have Christmas?
November market devastation not the result of Florida Follies….Tech sector disappointments and lowered prospects are most of it. The Good News: Two-thirds of the current bear market may now be history. Expect counter trend rally soon, but third and final “Bear” leg likely in Q1, 2001.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- When the Bears Have Thanksgiving, Will the Bulls Have Christmas?
- Undervalued & Unloved Investing
- November Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Cools In A Tumultuous Month
- Insider Block Measures...Market Smarting As Smart Money Selling Continues
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Super Bowl Internet Advertisers...Where Are They Now?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Technology: What’s The Downside?
- New Leuthold Group Coverage
- Internet Insanity Index
- New Group Holding…..New Minor Position In Environmental Services
- Scanning The Markets