Green Book May 1999
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Featured Articles
April Mutual Fund Flows
April net inflows into U.S. focus equity funds estimated at $23 billion, up from $15 billion in March. YTD equity fund cash flows still 25% below 1998 levels.
Bond Market Summary
New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Think Fed may tighten (50% likelihood) in coming months to slow down amazing economy.
Have Cyclicals Become the New Market Leaders?
There were unprecedented sudden and dramatic changes in market character in April. Have Cyclicals become the new market leaders? Is Value investing finally going to start paying off again? Is the extended period of small cap underperformance finally over?
Insider Block Measures...Registers A Sell Signal In April
The 10 week average temporarily broke through extreme net selling territory on April 21st. The latest reading (through April 28th) has broken back below this extreme net selling line...temporarily?
Internet Impact: Russell 2000
The Russell 2000 currently has an upside warp because of its Internet stock components. Many of these issues are now too big for this small cap measure, but remain in the index until the annual Russell rebalancing on May 31.
Joke of the Month
The winner of this month’s intra-office competition is Connie Schultz. I thought all the jokes were good, but Connie happens to be the production person for this section…and she is also tougher than the others.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Sometimes the Simple Things...Buy the Defense Contractors
It may seem simplistic to be buying these stocks with the ongoing news from the Balkans, but sometimes the simplest concepts can be the most rewarding.
Revenge of the Nerds
I don’t ever recall seeing a month with such a sudden and dramatic change in market character, at least not in terms of sector and group leadership.
Scanning The Markets
Massive shift into cyclical stocks during April left most investors scratching their heads, as technology high-flyers took second chair to metals, energy, and other basic materials.
The Big Shrink
1999 YTD cash acquisition factor nearly $82 billion, over 2 ½ times totals for the last four years.
Understanding MZM…It May Not Represent What You Think It Does
Much of the movement in MZM levels is not directly related to Fed policy. Stock market performance may be the primary driver, as investors and institutions move assets between the stock market and cash market.
View From The North Country
Chasing the tale of past performance…The large cap indexing stampede. It’s not too late to get invested in emerging market funds. Also “Richer than your wildest dreams”…The advertising pitch of online trading firms. Who is protecting the public from this?
Volatility Update...Reaching Extreme Levels
April was another volatile month. Of the 20 trading days, seven posted moves of 1% or more (35%).
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Revenge of the Nerds
- Have Cyclicals Become the New Market Leaders?
- April Mutual Fund Flows
- The Big Shrink
- Internet Impact: Russell 2000
- Volatility Update...Reaching Extreme Levels
- Insider Block Measures...Registers A Sell Signal In April
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Sometimes the Simple Things...Buy the Defense Contractors
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
April Mutual Fund Flows
April net inflows into U.S. focus equity funds estimated at $23 billion, up from $15 billion in March. YTD equity fund cash flows still 25% below 1998 levels.
Bond Market Summary
New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Think Fed may tighten (50% likelihood) in coming months to slow down amazing economy.
Have Cyclicals Become the New Market Leaders?
There were unprecedented sudden and dramatic changes in market character in April. Have Cyclicals become the new market leaders? Is Value investing finally going to start paying off again? Is the extended period of small cap underperformance finally over?
Insider Block Measures...Registers A Sell Signal In April
The 10 week average temporarily broke through extreme net selling territory on April 21st. The latest reading (through April 28th) has broken back below this extreme net selling line...temporarily?
Internet Impact: Russell 2000
The Russell 2000 currently has an upside warp because of its Internet stock components. Many of these issues are now too big for this small cap measure, but remain in the index until the annual Russell rebalancing on May 31.
Joke of the Month
The winner of this month’s intra-office competition is Connie Schultz. I thought all the jokes were good, but Connie happens to be the production person for this section…and she is also tougher than the others.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Sometimes the Simple Things...Buy the Defense Contractors
It may seem simplistic to be buying these stocks with the ongoing news from the Balkans, but sometimes the simplest concepts can be the most rewarding.
Revenge of the Nerds
I don’t ever recall seeing a month with such a sudden and dramatic change in market character, at least not in terms of sector and group leadership.
Scanning The Markets
Massive shift into cyclical stocks during April left most investors scratching their heads, as technology high-flyers took second chair to metals, energy, and other basic materials.
The Big Shrink
1999 YTD cash acquisition factor nearly $82 billion, over 2 ½ times totals for the last four years.
Understanding MZM…It May Not Represent What You Think It Does
Much of the movement in MZM levels is not directly related to Fed policy. Stock market performance may be the primary driver, as investors and institutions move assets between the stock market and cash market.
View From The North Country
Chasing the tale of past performance…The large cap indexing stampede. It’s not too late to get invested in emerging market funds. Also “Richer than your wildest dreams”…The advertising pitch of online trading firms. Who is protecting the public from this?
Volatility Update...Reaching Extreme Levels
April was another volatile month. Of the 20 trading days, seven posted moves of 1% or more (35%).
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Revenge of the Nerds
- Have Cyclicals Become the New Market Leaders?
- April Mutual Fund Flows
- The Big Shrink
- Internet Impact: Russell 2000
- Volatility Update...Reaching Extreme Levels
- Insider Block Measures...Registers A Sell Signal In April
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Sometimes the Simple Things...Buy the Defense Contractors
- Scanning The Markets