Green Book January 1999
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Featured Articles
1998 Day To Day Volatility
In 1998, the S&P 500 on a close to close basis moved up 1% or more on 47 trading days and down 1% or more on 33 trading days. Combined, this represents almost 32% of the 252 trading days. In 1995, only 5.2% of the trading days experienced moves of 1% or more.
1998 Mutual Fund Flows
It certainly was an interesting year for mutual fund cash flows. In mid-1998, it became clear that investors were beginning to favor the relative safety of bond and money market funds over equity funds. Up to that point, equity funds had been getting the lion’s share of investors’ contributions.
1998...Greatest Performance Dichotomy Ever?
This was a year where the super cap growth stocks, especially the tech stocks, blew away most active managers. Our Technology...Big Ten sector (10 largest caps) was up 75% for the year. The high P/E tier of the Royal Blue Index was up an unprecedented 57%.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Self-examination can be good for the soul if not the ego, so each January, time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations appearing in our publications. We include both the good...and the bad.
Big Cap Versus Small Cap: S&P 500 Versus Russell 2000
The following table compares the performance of the Russell 2000 Index (since its inception in 1979) with the S&P S00. Over this entire period, the Russell has outperformed the S&P in ten of the twenty years (S0% of the time), producing a slightly lower annual compound rate, 12.4%, versus 13.6% for the S&P 500.
Bond Market Summary
At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral. U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.
Internet Insanity Index
This Internet Insanity Index quantifies the mania which has swept up the Internet stocks over the past two years. It is constructed of first and second tier Internet components—technology companies that have been integral to the evolution of the Internet and retail companies which have gone through the roof by the mere mention of selling their wares over the Internet.
Joke of the Month
There was good joke flow last month, particularly after the market turned up in mid-December. I made a number of deposits in the joke bank, but here is a sampling of what came in.
Scanning The Markets
For 1998, Internet beat all other sectors, posting a 121% return. Tech...Big Ten (+75%) next best sector in 1998.
Still Bullish On U.S. Stock Market
As is typical, December was a weird month for the stock market, as year-end cross currents swirled. Market breadth, as measured by advance/decline studies, spurted late in December, but lagged for the month.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Still Bullish On U.S. Stock Market
- 1998...Greatest Performance Dichotomy Ever?
- 1998 Mutual Fund Flows
- Big Cap Versus Small Cap: S&P 500 Versus Russell 2000
- 1998 Day To Day Volatility
- View From The North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
1998 Day To Day Volatility
In 1998, the S&P 500 on a close to close basis moved up 1% or more on 47 trading days and down 1% or more on 33 trading days. Combined, this represents almost 32% of the 252 trading days. In 1995, only 5.2% of the trading days experienced moves of 1% or more.
1998 Mutual Fund Flows
It certainly was an interesting year for mutual fund cash flows. In mid-1998, it became clear that investors were beginning to favor the relative safety of bond and money market funds over equity funds. Up to that point, equity funds had been getting the lion’s share of investors’ contributions.
1998...Greatest Performance Dichotomy Ever?
This was a year where the super cap growth stocks, especially the tech stocks, blew away most active managers. Our Technology...Big Ten sector (10 largest caps) was up 75% for the year. The high P/E tier of the Royal Blue Index was up an unprecedented 57%.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Self-examination can be good for the soul if not the ego, so each January, time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations appearing in our publications. We include both the good...and the bad.
Big Cap Versus Small Cap: S&P 500 Versus Russell 2000
The following table compares the performance of the Russell 2000 Index (since its inception in 1979) with the S&P S00. Over this entire period, the Russell has outperformed the S&P in ten of the twenty years (S0% of the time), producing a slightly lower annual compound rate, 12.4%, versus 13.6% for the S&P 500.
Bond Market Summary
At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral. U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.
Internet Insanity Index
This Internet Insanity Index quantifies the mania which has swept up the Internet stocks over the past two years. It is constructed of first and second tier Internet components—technology companies that have been integral to the evolution of the Internet and retail companies which have gone through the roof by the mere mention of selling their wares over the Internet.
Joke of the Month
There was good joke flow last month, particularly after the market turned up in mid-December. I made a number of deposits in the joke bank, but here is a sampling of what came in.
Scanning The Markets
For 1998, Internet beat all other sectors, posting a 121% return. Tech...Big Ten (+75%) next best sector in 1998.
Still Bullish On U.S. Stock Market
As is typical, December was a weird month for the stock market, as year-end cross currents swirled. Market breadth, as measured by advance/decline studies, spurted late in December, but lagged for the month.
Stock Market
- Still Bullish On U.S. Stock Market
- 1998...Greatest Performance Dichotomy Ever?
- 1998 Mutual Fund Flows
- Big Cap Versus Small Cap: S&P 500 Versus Russell 2000
- 1998 Day To Day Volatility
- View From The North Country