Green Book March 1998
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Featured Articles
Asian Emerging Markets...Swinging For a Double
Looking for a potential Double? Take a look at our Asia Pacific market opportunity index. High risk markets but risk is tempered by the beating these market have taken.
Bond Market Summary
Asian crisis not yet applying brakes to strong U.S. economy...Asia should be bigger “drag” on U.S. in next six months. Near term, bond market still correcting from being somewhat extended.
Building a New Position: Housing
Buying 10% position in Housing. Moved up to Attractive last month, and currently the fourth highest ranked per our SS Scores. Expect current economic environment to be favorable for Housing.
February Mutual Fund Flows
Domestic equity inflows for 1998 lag last year’s levels, but still very strong...However, bond and money market fund flows YTD are significantly ahead of1997’s pace.
Is It Small Cap Time?
After weighing the pluses and minuses, it still looks like big cap leadership to us...small caps lacking sponsorship and liquidity at this point.
Joke of the Month
This month’s winner came from Don Gher at Coldstream Capital in Bellevue, Washington. I am not wild about golf jokes and I am sick of genie jokes, but technically this is not a genie joke. It is a leprechaun joke.
Playing the Bounce Update: It Was Really a Tech Bounce
On a year to date basis, the entire bounce universe is up almost 13%, outperforming the S&P 500 (+8.1%). Maybe there was a bounce this year, but it really seems that Tech stocks were the driver.
The February Sweet Spot
Major Trend Index turned Positive in early February...Expect market to move higher over next few months as long as Main Street keeps fueling Wall Street.
Trying To Rationalize Today’s Stock Market Valuations
Bullish conclusions using today’s low inflation levels and today’s “low” bond yields are derived from very short-term, historical time horizons. Longer term studies do not support these conclusions.
View From the North Country
Equity managers increasingly fear the career danger of holding cash. Sagging stock prices have led a growing number high tech firms to reprice employee stock options. The importance of humor and laughter in life and in business.
Worth Noting
Steve’s thoughts on 1998 Stock Market Leadership, Volatility, Japan, Gold and Inflation.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The February Sweet Spot
- February Mutual Fund Flows
- Is It Small Cap Time?
- Playing the Bounce Update: It Was Really a Tech Bounce
- Worth Noting
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Asian Emerging Markets...Swinging For a Double
Looking for a potential Double? Take a look at our Asia Pacific market opportunity index. High risk markets but risk is tempered by the beating these market have taken.
Bond Market Summary
Asian crisis not yet applying brakes to strong U.S. economy...Asia should be bigger “drag” on U.S. in next six months. Near term, bond market still correcting from being somewhat extended.
Building a New Position: Housing
Buying 10% position in Housing. Moved up to Attractive last month, and currently the fourth highest ranked per our SS Scores. Expect current economic environment to be favorable for Housing.
February Mutual Fund Flows
Domestic equity inflows for 1998 lag last year’s levels, but still very strong...However, bond and money market fund flows YTD are significantly ahead of1997’s pace.
Is It Small Cap Time?
After weighing the pluses and minuses, it still looks like big cap leadership to us...small caps lacking sponsorship and liquidity at this point.
Joke of the Month
This month’s winner came from Don Gher at Coldstream Capital in Bellevue, Washington. I am not wild about golf jokes and I am sick of genie jokes, but technically this is not a genie joke. It is a leprechaun joke.
Playing the Bounce Update: It Was Really a Tech Bounce
On a year to date basis, the entire bounce universe is up almost 13%, outperforming the S&P 500 (+8.1%). Maybe there was a bounce this year, but it really seems that Tech stocks were the driver.
The February Sweet Spot
Major Trend Index turned Positive in early February...Expect market to move higher over next few months as long as Main Street keeps fueling Wall Street.
Trying To Rationalize Today’s Stock Market Valuations
Bullish conclusions using today’s low inflation levels and today’s “low” bond yields are derived from very short-term, historical time horizons. Longer term studies do not support these conclusions.
View From the North Country
Equity managers increasingly fear the career danger of holding cash. Sagging stock prices have led a growing number high tech firms to reprice employee stock options. The importance of humor and laughter in life and in business.
Worth Noting
Steve’s thoughts on 1998 Stock Market Leadership, Volatility, Japan, Gold and Inflation.
Stock Market
- The February Sweet Spot
- February Mutual Fund Flows
- Is It Small Cap Time?
- Playing the Bounce Update: It Was Really a Tech Bounce
- Worth Noting
- View From the North Country