Green Book December 1998
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Featured Articles
Bullish...At Least for a While
The public is back as evidenced by strong mutual fund cash inflows. Seasonally strong Q1 mutual fund inflows should push the DJIA above 10,000. Traditional “January Effect” may be absent again in 1999, as it has previous four years.
Day Trading Frenzy: This Too Shall Pass
In one of our California meetings, the trading frenzy in the Internet stocks came up.
Inside the Bond Market
All in all, inflation pressures are expected to remain minimal. Through 1999, the CPI and PPI will likely remain between an environment of mild inflation and mild deflation.
I’m Still Afraid of Heights
Intrinsic Value benchmarks for each stock market average, using 1957 to date data. Using 1926 to date data the calculations are even more frightening.
Joke of the Month
This comes from Lori Amundson, a friend of The Leuthold Group’s Mark Murphy. She insisted it was a sure winner. Yes, it is on the sick side and may offend some readers. But then, most Irish humor does.
November Mutual Fund Flows
Small cap fund flows improving, but well below 1997 and 1996 levels. Nearly 70% of November’s bond inflows of $5.5 billion were earmarked for High Yield funds.
Playing the Bounce Update
Depending on what the December 15th list looks like and providing that the overall market is not soaring we might participate, anticipating a January-February bounce.
Public Confidence Again Rising
After noting last month’s declines in public confidence measures we wrote that, in order to sustain a rising stock market, these measures needed to improve in the next month. All of the confidence measures did improve.
SEC Cracking Down on Managed Earnings Abuses
On September 28, SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt announced a new “get tough” policy toward restructuring charges, write-offs and other managed earnings abuses. What follows are rather extensive extracts from Levitt’s speech.
Scanning the Markets
Technology sectors leading this advancing market with double-digit returns in November.
Stock Market/Home Prices
In our never-ending quest for valuation measures, we constructed a histogram which shows the number of S&P 500 units needed to purchase a new home.
View From the North Country
Currency speculators very destructive to global economies. Jesse “The Body” Ventura's victory was not a whim. How much does it cost to get your “Fanny in the Seat?” A look at the financials of baseball.
Volatility Update...Subsides Some in November
Volatility diminished in November after a very volatile month of October.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Bullish...At Least for a While
- Day Trading Frenzy: This Too Shall Pass
- November Mutual Fund Flows
- Playing the Bounce Update
- Volatility Update...Subsides Some in November
- Public Confidence Again Rising
- I’m Still Afraid of Heights
- Stock Market/Home Prices
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bullish...At Least for a While
The public is back as evidenced by strong mutual fund cash inflows. Seasonally strong Q1 mutual fund inflows should push the DJIA above 10,000. Traditional “January Effect” may be absent again in 1999, as it has previous four years.
Day Trading Frenzy: This Too Shall Pass
In one of our California meetings, the trading frenzy in the Internet stocks came up.
Inside the Bond Market
All in all, inflation pressures are expected to remain minimal. Through 1999, the CPI and PPI will likely remain between an environment of mild inflation and mild deflation.
I’m Still Afraid of Heights
Intrinsic Value benchmarks for each stock market average, using 1957 to date data. Using 1926 to date data the calculations are even more frightening.
Joke of the Month
This comes from Lori Amundson, a friend of The Leuthold Group’s Mark Murphy. She insisted it was a sure winner. Yes, it is on the sick side and may offend some readers. But then, most Irish humor does.
November Mutual Fund Flows
Small cap fund flows improving, but well below 1997 and 1996 levels. Nearly 70% of November’s bond inflows of $5.5 billion were earmarked for High Yield funds.
Playing the Bounce Update
Depending on what the December 15th list looks like and providing that the overall market is not soaring we might participate, anticipating a January-February bounce.
Public Confidence Again Rising
After noting last month’s declines in public confidence measures we wrote that, in order to sustain a rising stock market, these measures needed to improve in the next month. All of the confidence measures did improve.
SEC Cracking Down on Managed Earnings Abuses
On September 28, SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt announced a new “get tough” policy toward restructuring charges, write-offs and other managed earnings abuses. What follows are rather extensive extracts from Levitt’s speech.
Scanning the Markets
Technology sectors leading this advancing market with double-digit returns in November.
Stock Market/Home Prices
In our never-ending quest for valuation measures, we constructed a histogram which shows the number of S&P 500 units needed to purchase a new home.
View From the North Country
Currency speculators very destructive to global economies. Jesse “The Body” Ventura's victory was not a whim. How much does it cost to get your “Fanny in the Seat?” A look at the financials of baseball.
Volatility Update...Subsides Some in November
Volatility diminished in November after a very volatile month of October.
Stock Market
- Bullish...At Least for a While
- Day Trading Frenzy: This Too Shall Pass
- November Mutual Fund Flows
- Playing the Bounce Update
- Volatility Update...Subsides Some in November
- Public Confidence Again Rising
- I’m Still Afraid of Heights
- Stock Market/Home Prices
- View From the North Country