Green Book September 1997
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Featured Articles
August Fund Flows
In August, there were two weeks of net outflows from U.S. focus equity funds, the most recent was so small it hardly shows up on the chart.
Bond Market Summary
Bond risk still considered well below potential equity market risk...longer term, bond potential returns at least equal to potential equity returns.
Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
Ten largest S&P 500 stocks had latest four quarter earnings rise +19%, compared with top 25 companies +15%, top 100 companies +13% and bottom 200 companies +4%.
How Was Your Summer Holiday?
Major Trend Index faded to High Neutral in August, but will likely be propelled back to Positive by strong September 2nd market…Valuations still off the charts, but new valuation era looks like it’s still with us.
Is the Move In Secondary Stocks For Real?
Doubtful, at this point. Relative performance “catch up” not conclusive...Abnormal downdraft in large caps a big contributing factor.
Joke of the Month
This issue, two jokes from the Left Coast are featured. The winner was sent in August by Celia Chapman (Hughes Investment Management), Culver City, California...I suspect very few of you have heard it.
Margin Debt Huge and Understated?
Margin debt was $116 billion in July, up from $80 billion a year ago. This marks a record high in terms of dollars, as a percent of GDP, and as a percentage of total stock market value.
Scanning the Markets
Big caps lost favor in August, as the S&P 500 beat only five of the 72 sectors, while the DJIA only managed to outperform two sectors.
Technology Market Leadership Re-Examined
Composite Leuthold technology sector not exhibiting characteristics of market leadership. But, new Leuthold Big 10 Technology Sector (largest 10 tech names) tells quite a different story.
View From the North Country
Is Warren Buffett doing some very significant selling? I think this might be the case. Leuthold Group three part series on deflation will be sent to clients in September and October. Also, the 10th Anniversary of 1987’s stock market peak: two important “then” and “now” comparisons.
Volatility Update
In August, a very high 38% of the trading days qualified as high volatility days.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From the North Country
- How Was Your Summer Holiday?
- Is the Move In Secondary Stocks For Real?
- August Fund Flows
- Volatility Update
- Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
- Margin Debt Huge and Understated?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
August Fund Flows
In August, there were two weeks of net outflows from U.S. focus equity funds, the most recent was so small it hardly shows up on the chart.
Bond Market Summary
Bond risk still considered well below potential equity market risk...longer term, bond potential returns at least equal to potential equity returns.
Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
Ten largest S&P 500 stocks had latest four quarter earnings rise +19%, compared with top 25 companies +15%, top 100 companies +13% and bottom 200 companies +4%.
How Was Your Summer Holiday?
Major Trend Index faded to High Neutral in August, but will likely be propelled back to Positive by strong September 2nd market…Valuations still off the charts, but new valuation era looks like it’s still with us.
Is the Move In Secondary Stocks For Real?
Doubtful, at this point. Relative performance “catch up” not conclusive...Abnormal downdraft in large caps a big contributing factor.
Joke of the Month
This issue, two jokes from the Left Coast are featured. The winner was sent in August by Celia Chapman (Hughes Investment Management), Culver City, California...I suspect very few of you have heard it.
Margin Debt Huge and Understated?
Margin debt was $116 billion in July, up from $80 billion a year ago. This marks a record high in terms of dollars, as a percent of GDP, and as a percentage of total stock market value.
Scanning the Markets
Big caps lost favor in August, as the S&P 500 beat only five of the 72 sectors, while the DJIA only managed to outperform two sectors.
Technology Market Leadership Re-Examined
Composite Leuthold technology sector not exhibiting characteristics of market leadership. But, new Leuthold Big 10 Technology Sector (largest 10 tech names) tells quite a different story.
View From the North Country
Is Warren Buffett doing some very significant selling? I think this might be the case. Leuthold Group three part series on deflation will be sent to clients in September and October. Also, the 10th Anniversary of 1987’s stock market peak: two important “then” and “now” comparisons.
Volatility Update
In August, a very high 38% of the trading days qualified as high volatility days.
Stock Market
- View From the North Country
- How Was Your Summer Holiday?
- Is the Move In Secondary Stocks For Real?
- August Fund Flows
- Volatility Update
- Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
- Margin Debt Huge and Understated?