Green Book October 1997
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade...A return to “normalcy” implies falling US bond yields.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
After two weeks of net outflows in August, the public returned to the mutual fund trough in September.
Indexing Update
Index fund net inflows remained low in September at about $1.1 billion (estimated). This is almost flat compared to the $1.2 billion in August.
Is Move in Secondary Stocks For Real?...Yes
Small caps continued to outperform in September’s strong market. Improving small cap earnings and sales momentum. Improving sponsorship (so far) from aggressive and emerging net fund inflows.
Joke of the Month
This issue’s “View” seems to include an inordinate number of church and religion related items. In keeping with this purely accidental theme, I am also limiting this month’s Joke of the Month to jokes involving religion.
Octophobia? 1997 Is Not Like 1987 in Two Important Ways
Octophobia…but October 1997 is not at all like October 1987. In 1997, the Advance/Decline line has continued “in gear” with the S&P 500, whereas in 1987, the A/D line peaked out five months before August 1987’s peak.
S&P 500 Sales and Earnings Trends
Our momentum studies indicate that big cap earnings and sales momentum may be fading. Small cap earnings and sales trends, on the other hand, appear to be stable and maybe even improving.
Scanning the Markets
Contrary to August, when the S&P 500 was beaten by 93% of the sectors tracked, September saw more normal action.
View From the North Country
Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.
Volatility Update
In September, 19% of the trading days qualified as high volatility days.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Volatility Update
- Indexing Update
- Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
- Is Move in Secondary Stocks For Real?...Yes
- Octophobia? 1997 Is Not Like 1987 in Two Important Ways
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade...A return to “normalcy” implies falling US bond yields.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
After two weeks of net outflows in August, the public returned to the mutual fund trough in September.
Indexing Update
Index fund net inflows remained low in September at about $1.1 billion (estimated). This is almost flat compared to the $1.2 billion in August.
Is Move in Secondary Stocks For Real?...Yes
Small caps continued to outperform in September’s strong market. Improving small cap earnings and sales momentum. Improving sponsorship (so far) from aggressive and emerging net fund inflows.
Joke of the Month
This issue’s “View” seems to include an inordinate number of church and religion related items. In keeping with this purely accidental theme, I am also limiting this month’s Joke of the Month to jokes involving religion.
Octophobia? 1997 Is Not Like 1987 in Two Important Ways
Octophobia…but October 1997 is not at all like October 1987. In 1997, the Advance/Decline line has continued “in gear” with the S&P 500, whereas in 1987, the A/D line peaked out five months before August 1987’s peak.
S&P 500 Sales and Earnings Trends
Our momentum studies indicate that big cap earnings and sales momentum may be fading. Small cap earnings and sales trends, on the other hand, appear to be stable and maybe even improving.
Scanning the Markets
Contrary to August, when the S&P 500 was beaten by 93% of the sectors tracked, September saw more normal action.
View From the North Country
Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.
Volatility Update
In September, 19% of the trading days qualified as high volatility days.
Stock Market
- Volatility Update
- Indexing Update
- Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
- Is Move in Secondary Stocks For Real?...Yes
- Octophobia? 1997 Is Not Like 1987 in Two Important Ways
- View From the North Country